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How’s our model doing? Plus: updating Bryant’s valuation; Starling Marte analysis
How is our model doing vs. real-life trades? As of January 31: Total trades: 39 Total trades accepted by our model: 33 Acceptance rate: 84.6% Variance: +/- 4.0 While we think that’s pretty good, we actually think the model is doing even better....
It’s time to break up the Rockies
Now that has openly voiced his frustrations about his situation in Colorado, his relationship with the Rockies seems to have passed the point of no return. A trade now seems inevitable. Relatedly, the...
January trade tracker update; ranking the Big Four
It’s mid-January; time to take stock. How is our model doing vs. real life? As of January 18: Total trades: 36 Total trades accepted by our model: 30 Acceptance rate: 83.3% Variance: +/- 4.2 Basically, the model has been right five out of every six...
Why it’s important to follow the money
Recently, on an episode of MLB Tonight, John Smoltz was asked to compare the difference between signing Josh Donaldson or trading for . His response was, to paraphrase: Donaldson doesn’t cost anything...
The trickiness of Nolan Arenado’s trade value
Recent reports suggest the Rockies are seriously entertaining the idea of trading Nolan Arenado [27.7], who is of course their franchise player and one of the best in baseball. Setting aside the issue of why, let’s break down how we’ve arrived at our...
Why we were high on Mookie Betts’ trade value
Update on 2/8/20: We've adjusted Maeda's value up a little based on the latest PECOTA projections. Others involved did not change materially. Update on 2/6/20: Based on new information being reported by Ken Rosenthal, we've downgraded Brusdar...