Blue Jays & Diamondbacks
Submitted by: JustARandomFan
Blue Jays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | 26 | Majors | C | OF | Low | 4 | 103.9 | 29.4 | 74.5 | 59.6 | 74.5 | 89.4 |
Total Value:
74.5
Diamondbacks
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 28 | Majors | OF | 2B | Medium | 1 | 11 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 22 | Majors | C | Low | 6 | 65.8 | 12.1 | 53.7 | 42.9 | 53.7 | 64.4 |
Total Value:
59.3
Comments
23I think the gross difference in value between the 2 parties is that Varsho's value is based on him playing catcher and I believe both parties believe that Varsho won't stick there. Therefore ARI traded for a catcher & TOR will use Varsho in the OF. Both believe they got a good deal
Meanwhile, I would imagine Arizona would flip Gurriel for a prospect.
What would the Seattle Mariners, who reportedly are in the market for a righthand-hitting left fielder to platoon with Jarred Kelenic, need to trade to land one year of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.? Would the M's competitive balance draft pick be enough? Or would the Mariners need to dip into their prospect pitching depth?
I don't think Arizona flips Gurriel. He is good complement to all lefty OF cast. Could be DH. Affordable for 2 seasons. No, I think Arizona holds tight to their take. They needed both positions.
I don't think that AZ will flip Gurriel as from what I understand, AZ was looking for a RH bat and Varsho was the most tradable of the outfielders for AZ. Gurriel is a very good defensive outfielder as well. I think also that Varsho will mostly play OF for Toronto as they have Kirk and Jansen behind the dish currently. The key for the deal was AZ getting the RH bat. I think that getting Moreno was the big difference that swings the deal at this point in AZ's direction.
In terms of Gurriels defence, I think it’s the other way around. It’s horrendous, bad enough that he isn’t expected to stick at the position as he ages. This discounts his value a lot, because it’s not certain he will be able to hit enough to justify a 1B or DH role.
I'm a big Varsho fan and this seems like a terrible return to me. Also, unless I'm mistaken I don't think Varsho can't stick at C. It has more to do with him being an excellent hitter and keeping his bat in the lineup. It feels like the rich just got richer and Arizona aided in that happening. Excellent move for Toronto though. They dealt what looks like a good defensive catcher with good contact skills and little power for a masher. They also dumped Gurriel Jr who they had little use for anymore.
I'm shocked by this trade. Varsho is not that good a catcher and he has no bat. An elite defensive outfielder is worth a lot, but $75MM in trade value and a return of a top catching prospect like Moreno? Really??? I'm floored. D-Backs pulled off the theft of the year... I mean the week (that Murphy trade won't be outdone this year).
He has a pretty solid bat. The shift ban will help him a huge amount as he’s a pure pull line drive hitter. Had one of the lowest Babip’s too
He has a 101 wRC+ for his career. I guess that counts as solid. I’m still shocked the Blue Jays traded a potentially elite catcher for a defensive standout.
Last year he had a 108. Considering that he had a OPS in the mid 800’s when not batting leadoff, is moving from terrible hitters park to neutral one, moving from bad to good lineup, and the shift getting banned being a pure pull hitter will all help him out offensively
Last year he had a 108. Considering that he had a OPS in the mid 800’s when not batting leadoff, is moving from terrible hitters park to neutral one, moving from bad to good lineup, and the shift getting banned being a pure pull hitter will all help him out offensively
This is why trade value is idiotic. Defensive value should be divided by 2. Also, the WAR Varsho had was largely last year's performance. So much weight should not be given to him. He was barely above average at offense, and his speed was decent, but defense is not worth several wins a year no matter how good someone is. A top 10 catching prospect in MLB and a better hitting outfielder should be worth much much more.
We've already adjusted our model to account for defensive WAR numbers being less valuable than offensive WAR numbers. Varsho has four years of control and is just entering his prime; Gurriel has only one year of control and is relatively expensive for what he brings; Moreno hasn't established himself at the MLB level yet.
I think Guriel has 2 left. Please check baseball reference. It says his contract is up in 2023, but he only has 4 years of service. It says free agent 2025, so this year and the next. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gurrilo01.shtml This is kind of like Ohtani having a contract and being arb eligible afterwards.
Yup, you're right I have checked that on baseball references and also on https://bbcorhitter.com/ valid information is available there.
According to Cot's: Gurriel will become a XX(B) free agent upon expiration of contract after 2023 season Ohtani is not arb-eligible after this year either.
I was referring to Ohtani's prior contract(s). Guriel's case, however, is something I was not aware of. I haven't heard of Cots, though, and bref seems legit. Matt Bush's situation seems similar here, though, in that some free agents can still be arb eligible for some reason that I'm not too sure of. Bush was granted free agency multiple times and is still with the Brewers for 2 more seasons in spite of this. Bryan Reynolds signed a mutli-year deal too, but arb seems to kick in after all prior contracts are up.
Cot's is considered the best resource in the industry when it comes to contracts. Here's a link: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/arizona-diamondbacks/ We've found that they're more accurate on this front than any other resource. Bref sources its info indirectly, so they're not a primary resource.
A's fans are upset about return for Murphy. Blue Jays fans are upset about the return for Moreno. Free agent catchers are getting paid salaries close to their values here, but it seems like catchers are valued much less when being traded. It seems like there is a major shift in catcher valuations industry wide.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
That’s about right. Varsho plays two premium positions, so his WAR numbers give him extra credit, so baseline is high. If he only plays one of those going forward it’ll settle a bit.