Shawn Bergeron

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Back in 2022, John Bitzer wrote an article about former top prospects who now look like busts. It’s time for a refresh.  In that piece, John posited that, based on the actions of front offices around the league, prospects have about a two-year window, on average, to prove their worth before their club -- or the league as a whole -- moves on. The amount of time or number of chances a team is willing to give varies from player to player, but the point remains: players need to prove...

Ethan Pechersky

2

Billy Beane once famously referenced Branch Rickey when he said, “It’s better to make a trade a year too early than a year too late.” The notion is that, if you wait too long, you’ll miss the ideal window for trading a veteran MLB player for prospects that are good enough to restock your farm. One example of a team that failed to heed this advice was the Phillies, circa 2011. And their story may have implications for a team in a similar boat today – like the...

johnbitzer

2

BTV fans, the time has come to change the way we operate. Beginning in early May, access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments sections will no longer be free, as in the past (see below for details on why). Instead, we will be introducing a new subscription tier, called Pro, which will enable full access to these site features. You’ll now have three choices of subscription tiers: Pro, which provides access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments, as well as...

johnbitzer

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This past offseason, we debuted several new features, one of which was our free agent calculator, which you can find here if you’re a GM-level subscriber.  It works a little differently than the predictions of other sites. Instead of forecasting the exact length and amount of a player’s contract, our approach is to let the user choose the length, and the total amount and AAV will display.  For example, our tool will display an estimated fair value for Jordan Montgomery...

Baseball and glove

Joshua Iversen

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Welcome to the 2023-24 Offseason Roundup. Any additional trades will be added to this article as they are reported. — Cincinnati Reds acquire IF Santiago Espinal ($3.0M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Chris McElvain ($0.3M) After spending all offseason with too many infielders and not enough positions to play them all, the Reds closed out camp with a gaping hole on their depth chart, caused by Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension and Matt McLain’s mid-spring...

johnbitzer

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We’re not totally sure the offseason is over, but given that real games are about to start, it’s probably best to consider it so. With that, it’s time for our semi-annual look at how our model performed against the trade market. As a reminder, we keep a log of every trade that occurs in real life – big and small – as a check on our model. This allows us to see patterns, and to make adjustments if necessary. Since we’ve been doing this for almost five years...

John Meloche

1

The Blue Jays are four years into their latest competitive window, but what do they have to show for it? Between the 2020-2023 seasons, they’ve reached the playoffs three times, collecting 304 wins, with a .557 win percentage. They’ve been a steady wild-card playoff team, never winning more than 92 games, yet achieving the sixth-best record in baseball during this timeframe.  Granted, they’ve tried to add to the core by signing notable free agents such as Hyun Jin Ryu,...

jimmycostello

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One of the latest trends for teams in baseball has been to lock up young stars to extensions. Over the last few years, several big names have landed massive deals, including Fernando Tatis, Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, and most recently, Bobby Witt Jr.  For organizations, this ensures team control at a fraction of the cost a player may be priced at in free agency. For players, more money is paid upfront, and there's a safety net in place in case of injury. So which young stars...

Shawn Bergeron

1

In my last article for BTV, I analyzed this offseason’s trades by Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves, focusing on their overall approach of “purchasing” field value at the expense of salary (and surplus value).  Now let’s look at this offseason’s trades by the Mariners, which follow a different methodology. The latest controversy surrounding Seattle’s President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has to do with comments he made this past December in...

James Hirota

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For players who will become free agents after the 2024 season, the question of whether or not to offer them extensions will be a tough one for some front offices. One primary reason: when star players are this close to free agency, there’s no incentive for them to take a discount – to make it worth it for them to forego their chance at a big payday, they’re going to want full market value.  Given that, let’s look at two borderline cases – a pitcher and a...

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