johnbitzer

1

The Blue Jays finally appear to be at the point where they’ve thrown in the towel on the season – reportedly, they’re now open to trading veteran players on expiring contracts. But not Vlad or Bo. Why is that? Let’s explore what might be going on there, both from the Blue Jays’ point of view and that of the market.   Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Projected trade deadline values: AFV: $41.3M Salary: $36.4M Surplus: $4.9M   It’s complicated – more...

johnbitzer

2

BTV fans, the time has come to change the way we operate. Beginning in early May, access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments sections will no longer be free, as in the past (see below for details on why). Instead, we will be introducing a new subscription tier, called Pro, which will enable full access to these site features. You’ll now have three choices of subscription tiers: Pro, which provides access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments, as well as...

johnbitzer

1

This past offseason, we debuted several new features, one of which was our free agent calculator, which you can find here if you’re a GM-level subscriber.  It works a little differently than the predictions of other sites. Instead of forecasting the exact length and amount of a player’s contract, our approach is to let the user choose the length, and the total amount and AAV will display.  For example, our tool will display an estimated fair value for Jordan Montgomery...

johnbitzer

0

We’re not totally sure the offseason is over, but given that real games are about to start, it’s probably best to consider it so. With that, it’s time for our semi-annual look at how our model performed against the trade market. As a reminder, we keep a log of every trade that occurs in real life – big and small – as a check on our model. This allows us to see patterns, and to make adjustments if necessary. Since we’ve been doing this for almost five years...

johnbitzer

6

After getting absolutely nothing for Shohei Ohtani, the Angels are now facing a tough future. Their other superstar, Mike Trout, is now 32, past his prime years, and struggling to stay healthy. Just as importantly, their farm system is the worst in baseball – and the team weakened it even further by trading away top prospects at the deadline in 2023. Rationally, then, the case seems obvious: it’s time to rebuild. The team should just recognize reality, admit that they don’t...

johnbitzer

0

BTV is seeking to bring on freelance writers to help out with articles. All writers will be paid by the article, at a negotiated rate. Articles will be in line with the topics relevant to our site – that is, they’ll largely be focused on aspects of trade value, roster construction, and teambuilding strategies. If interested, please email baseballtradevalues@gmail.com, and include any relevant writing samples.

johnbitzer

2

Think your proposals are realistic? Let’s find out by having a little extra fun with it. Welcome to the BTV Offseason Trade Proposal Competition (for subscribers). The way the competition works: We’ll list the most likely trade candidates this offseason – see below. Of course, we provide the value estimates. Your job is to figure out the destination team and the players involved in each package. If and when the actual trade happens in reality, we’ll see who came the...

johnbitzer

4

It’s obvious now that the Angels’ unfortunate decision to go for it at the trade deadline backfired. In addition to pulling Shohei Ohtani off the trade market, they doubled down and quickly became buyers in an attempt to make the playoffs. In a dizzying week, they acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, and Dominic Leone, paying premiums (based on our modeling) on every transaction. Then, one month later, they reversed course. Once clearly out of...

Baseball player batting

johnbitzer

1

Now that the deadline has passed, what did we notice? First, let’s check how our model did (note that we’re counting every trade in the true deadline period, starting with Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers): Number of trades: 57 Trades accepted: 52 Acceptance rate: 91.2% Variance: 2.6 Wins: 46 Our model nailed the two biggest trades of the season, Scherzer and Verlander. It also got most of the medium-sized and smaller deals right: Civale, Montgomery, Flaherty, Candelario, Barlow,...

johnbitzer

1

You might have noticed that Nolan Arenado’s value estimate on our site has changed a little recently. That’s normal, due to the variables of performance and time. But there’s another reason it changed: we investigated the details in his contract, and made a correction. This is important, because it affects his overall surplus value – and the amount of money a team that traded for him would owe him. On the surface, Arenado is owed the following – and this is what...

NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!