Which MLB organizations are better at winning more with less? Who gets the most bang for the buck?  One feature of our site that is available to GM subscribers is our Team Rankings page, which lists all 30 teams in various categories, including field value, salary, and surplus value. Surplus value, in turn, can be filtered by levels – majors, minors, and total.  Majors Surplus Value measures the degree to which teams are maximizing their budget to win at that level. After all,...

How did our model do at the deadline?   Starting with the Aaron Civale trade in early July, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 72 Number accepted by the model: 60  Acceptance rate: 83.3% Average value variance per deal: 3.7   Not bad, but we’ve done better.    Wins: Significant trades on which our model was very close – aka “fair deals”:   Hunter Harvey, Austin Slater, A.J. Puk, Randy Arozarena, James Paxton, Austin...

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres “are aggressively looking for help, but are telling teams that prized catching prospect Ethan Salas is untouchable.” Assuming that’s true, there's a contradiction here: you can’t be aggressive if you don’t have much to be aggressive with. Let’s take a look at what Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has to trade from his farm if Salas is excluded:   Leodalis De Vries Trade value:...

After a hot start where they looked like the best team in baseball, the Yankees have come crashing down to Earth, playing sub-.500 ball (18-21) since June 1. Along the way, several flaws have been exposed. Now, facing the deadline, they need help if they want to stop the skid. They could use another bullpen arm, and at least one (probably two) more bats, preferably ones who can play the infield.  They’ve gotten precious little production from Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMaheiu, and...

The Blue Jays finally appear to be at the point where they’ve thrown in the towel on the season – reportedly, they’re now open to trading veteran players on expiring contracts. But not Vlad or Bo. Why is that? Let’s explore what might be going on there, both from the Blue Jays’ point of view and that of the market.   Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Projected trade deadline values: AFV: $41.3M Salary: $36.4M Surplus: $4.9M   It’s complicated – more...

BTV fans, the time has come to change the way we operate. Beginning in early May, access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments sections will no longer be free, as in the past (see below for details on why). Instead, we will be introducing a new subscription tier, called Pro, which will enable full access to these site features. You’ll now have three choices of subscription tiers: Pro, which provides access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments, as well as...

This past offseason, we debuted several new features, one of which was our free agent calculator, which you can find here if you’re a GM-level subscriber.  It works a little differently than the predictions of other sites. Instead of forecasting the exact length and amount of a player’s contract, our approach is to let the user choose the length, and the total amount and AAV will display.  For example, our tool will display an estimated fair value for Jordan Montgomery...

We’re not totally sure the offseason is over, but given that real games are about to start, it’s probably best to consider it so. With that, it’s time for our semi-annual look at how our model performed against the trade market. As a reminder, we keep a log of every trade that occurs in real life – big and small – as a check on our model. This allows us to see patterns, and to make adjustments if necessary. Since we’ve been doing this for almost five years...

After getting absolutely nothing for Shohei Ohtani, the Angels are now facing a tough future. Their other superstar, Mike Trout, is now 32, past his prime years, and struggling to stay healthy. Just as importantly, their farm system is the worst in baseball – and the team weakened it even further by trading away top prospects at the deadline in 2023. Rationally, then, the case seems obvious: it’s time to rebuild. The team should just recognize reality, admit that they don’t...

BTV is seeking to bring on freelance writers to help out with articles. All writers will be paid by the article, at a negotiated rate. Articles will be in line with the topics relevant to our site – that is, they’ll largely be focused on aspects of trade value, roster construction, and teambuilding strategies. If interested, please email baseballtradevalues@gmail.com, and include any relevant writing samples.