GM Override: Real trade.
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Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 30 | Majors | 2B | Low | 2 | 31.9 | 22.5 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 11.3 |
Total Value:
9.4
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 34 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1 | 10.9 | 12 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.9 | |
| Justin Topa | 33 | Majors | RP | High | 3 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 5.6 | 7 | 8.3 | |
| Gabriel Gonzalez | 19 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8.8 | 11 | 13.2 | ||
| Darren Bowen | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||
| Cash | 8 |
Total Value:
25.3
Comments
29
Cash here is an estimate -- reportedly the Mariners are sending the $6M they got from SF in the Robbie Ray trade, plus a little more. Massive overpay any way you slice it. Reportedly the Mariners have coveted Polanco for years, and it shows.
That's a lot more cash than I was expecting. Massive overpay purely in terms of value, but I still think this is a good trade for the Mariners. Filling a massive hole in the lineup without creating another hole.
The Mariners have figured out how to grow good relievers on trees, and/or pick them up for nothing and turn them into something they can flip -- Swanson, Sewald, now Topa. You get the feeling they'll keep finding other arms like that, in which case the loss of Topa is almost meaningless to them. Gonzalez probably hurts the most.
Gonzalez doesn't help the team next year. I don't care all that much about him. MLB Pipeline also seems to be a lot higher on him than even a lot of us in the Mariners-sphere. Of course I have faith the we will develop a replacement for Topa, but nothing is guaranteed. I would rather have Topa in the pen than not, but getting an every day 2B was the biggest remaining need.
I also expect Polanco to improve some defensively after working with defensive wizard Perry Hill.
Twins have to be thrilled. Seemed obvious that Polanco had to be traded with Julien currently at 2nd as well as Martin and especially Lee expected to be ready at some point this season. Too add a good prospect, inning eating starter, and decent reliever while making room seems like a big win.
Alot hinges on the projections for Polanco. He’s currently projected for 2.7fWAR at Fangraphs for 2024, which seems to be alot more than BTV is projecting him for based on the AFV of only 31.9. If you’re closer to 2.7WAR per year that gets you to 2*2.7*9=48.6 AFV and a surplus value of 26.1 not 9.4
Probably because of a recent injury history. In '22 he was 2.8 fWAR/162... in '23 3.0 fWAR/162. I still don't like a Urias/Rojas platoon at 3rd. But whatever. He's the contact hitter we've been looking for. I would still love to see the M's trade one of Woo or Miller for a legit 3B. One can dream I guess.
That 48.6 AFV seems awfully optimistic. The two year ZIPS projection at FG has him at 2.4 and 1.7 for the next two years. If you go with those numbers and use $8.1mil/fWAR (which seems to be what FG uses) you only get 33.2 AFV, which would put his surplus value just under 11. 4.1*8.1=33.2, future salaries=22.5, surplus value=10.7 I'm a Twins fan. I love Polanco, but this seems like a good deal for the Twins.
Yea there’s a fairly wide variety of outcomes depending on the numbers that you plug in. I was looking at the FGDC projection, which has a much higher playing time allocation, which in hindsight was probably based on his projected playing time at the Twins rather than M’s. I probably should have assumed some decline as well in ‘25. The $9m was to be consistent with the BTV methodology “First, there’s been a lot of research on how much a team pays for each win above replacement. On average, it’s a little above $9M.” My main point was that it’s probably not as much of an overpay as the BTV model suggests if you have a more optimistic view of Polanco’s projections than BTV has.
Projection systems don't factor in injury risk. Polanco only played 80 games in 2023, and 104 in 2022, and he's a year older to boot. Counting on 140+, as the projections do, seems optimistic. Also, 2B is a position the market has been devaluing for years. Yes, the bat is good and consistent, but there are a lot of dents in the profile.
Projection systems absolutely do factor in injury risk. You might think they do so insufficiently on the whole or in Polanco’s case. But the broad statement that they do not factor in injury risk is not true, as anyone who’s ever considered drafting Aaron Judge or Byron Buxton in fantasy baseball could tell you.
Not to any realistic extent, though. There are variances based on playing time estimates, which beyond a certain point become subjective.
That is a qualitatively different statement than "[p]rojection systems don't factor in injury risk."
The difference is that they're modeling playing time, based on previous patterns, not any injury-related root causes.
" Counting on 140+, as the projections do, seems optimistic." Sorry what? Steamer is the only projection system that has him at 140+ games. ATC has him at 125 and ZiPS has him at 115. Both of which have him at about a 2.5 WAR projection. Polanco should be valued more like around 15M based on projections and your own system of value per WAR (which, as stated above, you have at "a little above 9M"). 2.5+1.7=4.2. 4.2*9=~38. 38-22.5= 15.5.
which is to say nothing of your over-valuation of Gonzalez, who is a 40+ FV bat which projects out to about 5M in value, not 11M. You add 6M to Polanco and subtrack 6M from Gonzalez and its a much closer trade
He's only a 40+ bat per FG; BA has him as a 55V. You can't just take one data point as gospel.
valid. I don't have access to BA so haven't seen that. Either way, the Polanco eval is a bit low. It's still a bit of an overpay, but not as massive as your model is showing. The money going to MIN is the main piece that is odd. With out it, deal looks just fine
Looks like the Mariners think Polanco’s bat (a switch hitter) is where his value lies and that’s what they’re paying for. The Twins seemed to of capitalized nicely on the return for 2 years of Polanco with 2 pitchers for the major league staff and 2 prospects and some cash. Don’t know if it’s a clear win for either team but I think it helps both clubs. And I like the aggressiveness of the Mariners for Polanco’s bat.
Does seem like another trade or move could be possible. As mentioned above, Polanco is a switch hitter. Urias, Rojas, Moore and Haggerty for infield depth. Anyone of those guys could be packaged I guess but I don’t think M’s now have enough starting pitching depth to give up Woo or Miller. We really don’t know the money situation…after this trade payroll is at what now? About $130M (if you include the $6 million going to the Twins)? Never gonna happen but seems like the perfect move right now would be to add Chapman.
Interesting...now all the Mariner fans who said they didn't really need Polanco, (after all they had Ryan Bliss for Pete's Sake) LIKE this trade. Interesting indeed. This DOES seem to be a good trade for both teams, although the BBTV valuation seems to indicate a BIG WIN for the Twins in the deal.
I like the trade, I don't really like if they are sending the 6 million over but those trades were cash neutral so should leave the M's a bit of money to splurge. I would love Snell on a 7/26 deal and move Woo or Miller to the BP or stash 1 of them in Tacoma. I think Snell really wants to crack 200 million though. Could possibly go a 7/27 deal. Both deals would be more than what Nola got
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my understanding is that of the 8M being sent to the twins, 6 of it is the portion that SF is paying disco. Therefore the mariners are actually only sending 2M, the portion that SF agreed to pay can not be pocketed by the mariners it is attached to the player where ever he ends up playing. All that said still looks like a win for the twins, but does address a huge need for the mariners, hence the overpay.
It's tricky, because that $6M could also have been attached to Haniger. This stuff never gets reported or tracked so we'll never know. But it probably doesn't matter because it went into the Mariners' coffers, and either way they're sending $8M to the Twins.
Based on this being a bulk deal with salaries, injury concerns, prospects, and team options, I think deals like these show the kinks in the armor of this platform. To be clear, I love this platform and think it's a lot more useful than many around the "baseball podcasting ecosystem" do, but these types of deals are a bit too complex IMO to insert into a surplus value calculator.
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I don't understand why Seattle had to include cash to Minnesota.
I agree, DeSclafani is a tough contract to take on, but I feel that is why they sent Gonzalez and Topa with. To send those guys as well as the $8M does not add up.