| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | 25 | Majors | 3B | Low | 3.4 | 83.1 | 27.2 | 55.9 | 44.8 | 55.9 | 67.1 |
Total Value:
55.9
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Davis | 24 | Majors | C | OF | 5.4 | 18.2 | 0 | 18.2 | 14.6 | 18.2 | 21.9 | |
| Bubba Chandler | 21 | Minors | SP | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 | 15.6 | 19.5 | 23.4 | |
| Termarr Johnson | 20 | Minors | 2B | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16 |
Total Value:
51
This trade has the sexy names in it, but I don’t know how much it will interest the Rays. Chandler is good and fills a need. No problem there. Johnson is pretty good but he doesn’t fill a need at all. The Rays are overflowing with high end 2B/3B prospects. Then there is Davis. Davis would be very unlikely to play catcher for the Rays because he’s so bad in the field, and his struggles to hit in the Majors so far have to be concerning. If his trade value was around $10MM the risk might be worth it given his potential with the bat, but at $20MM it seems to rich for the Rays tastes. I think this is a good starting point for a Paredes trade to Pittsburg but it needs tweaking to get over the finish line.
Ya it's a hard trade to pull off. Paredes has some wonky statcast numbers and I'm not sure his power plays great at PNC Park longterm. Pirates have some great pitching prospects to include but are low on close to the majors bats. Unlikely either side does this maybe they can work something for Arozerena with lesser return?
You raise a valid concern with Paredes. Personally, I think folks get too worked up over exit velocity and hard hit rates. A scrub like Chicago’s Morel is considered a stud in waiting because of the underlying stats while a stud like Paredes is constantly disparaged for his lack of dominant underlying stats. I don’t care about such things. Paredes is only 25 and has performed around a 4 Win rate for all 3 years he’s been a Ray. There’s no reason to expect regression any time soon. That said, the fact that Paredes hits so much better at the Trop than he does away from the Trop (147 wRC+ to 127 wRC+) is a concern, but I have to think his overall trade value takes that into account. As for Aroz, he should come cheaper than Paredes, but the Rays are also unlikely to trade Aroz at a $7MM valuation. He was worth $33MM in the offseason because he hits 125ish wRC+ every year at the plate and he’s probably going to hit that level again this year after starting the year with a miserable 37 wRC+ through April 30th. Since May 1st he has hit 140 wRC+ and has raised his season wRC+ to 107 wRC+. His trade value on BTV doesn’t reflect his recent performance, at least in my opinion. He’s also under control for 2 more years, so there’s no “need” to trade him.
Henry Davis is a bad defender than can't hit MLB pitching. I'm surprised you'd want him.