Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Prominent trade candidates:

Mitch Keller

• Field value: 94.0
• Salary owed: 61.3
• Surplus: 32.8 (⬆️)

As the Pirates continue to toil at the bottom of the NL Central (and continue to churn out quality young pitching along the way) all eyes have turned to Keller as a potential trade candidate. The former top prospect has settled in as a quality mid-rotation arm, and his affordable contract (he’s owed roughly $61.3M through 2028, his age-32 season) makes him an attractive target. His strikeout rate has declined over the last two years, and his Savant page has its fair share of blue, but he’s done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard this year and sports a career-best ERA, xERA and FIP. He’s also been durable, making at least 29 starts each of the last three seasons. He’s no ace, but Keller is a quality arm in a market sorely lacking for such options.

 

Luis Severino

• Field value: 36.3
• Salary owed: 48.8
• Surplus: -12.4 (⬇️)

Severino’s on-field performance has only continued to disappoint since the right-hander made national headlines by voicing his displeasure with the Athletics’ minor league facilities in Sacramento. The veteran currently sports a 5.30 ERA (4.45 FIP) and the latest round of updates doesn’t even include his most recent stinker, a 4.1 inning, 5 earned run performance against the middling Giants offense. It’ll be difficult for the A’s to find a taker here, especially considering the potential grievance implications if the team trades its largest free agent contract only months after signing him.

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 5.1
• Salary owed: 8.8
• Surplus: -3.7 (⬇️)

Robert Jr. remains on the injured list, and as such, his value continues to decline. It seems national writers are finally coming around on the idea that he won’t return much in a trade, with some even suggesting the White Sox hang onto him and see if he can bounce back enough in the second half for them to execute his $20M club option for 2026 (which is very difficult to imagine).

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 63.5
• Salary owed: 45.7
• Surplus: 17.8 (⬇️)

In two starts since the last update, Alcantara has allowed seven earned runs to Arizona and five to Milwaukee, both over six innings. Those are two playoff contenders, sure, but any team acquiring Alcantara would be expecting him to perform against these types of teams, especially into October. All it takes is one team getting desperate, but it remains difficult to see anyone giving up significant value for Alcantara given the high risk, especially as more creative options like Keller and Kris Bubic continue to pop up on the market.

 

Josh Naylor

• Field value: 8.4
• Salary owed: 4.9
• Surplus: 3.5 (⬇️)

Last week, third baseman Eugenio Suárez was featured here, and this week it’s his corner infield partner in Naylor. Last season he sold out for power, but this year he’s back to his more contact-oriented 2023 approach. He sports a 127 wRC+ and is a quality option for teams in need of first base help. As a rental first baseman, his value is capped, but if the sputtering Diamondbacks decide to sell, they’ll at least get a decent prospect here.

 

Other notables:

Bryan Reynolds

• Field value: 51.6
• Salary owed: 81.4
• Surplus: -29.8

There has been some buzz around Reynolds, with the Royals being the latest team credibly linked to the outfielder. But it’s clear to us that Reynolds’ contract is underwater. The deal, which owes him another $81.4M through 2030 (his age-35 season), was signed in spring 2023, just a year removed from his breakout, 6.2-fWAR 2021 campaign. Since then, both his offense and defense have taken a step back, and he’s settled in as closer to a 2-fWAR player. That’s useful, but not overwhelmingly valuable, and especially not as he continues into his 30s and is in the midst of a sub-replacement season. He’s hitting better in recent weeks, but he still has a lot of work to do to push his head above water. It’s currently hard to see a deal going through without the Pirates eating some of his contract.

 

Seth Lugo

• Field value: 21.6
• Salary owed: 21.8
• Surplus: -0.2

Lugo’s slightly negative trade value may come as a surprise. But the advanced metrics didn’t buy his 3.00 ERA last season, and they’re even less supportive of his sparkling 2.65 ERA this year. Further, he has a $15M player option for 2026, and though our model currently projects him to exercise the option and remain under contract, it’s very close. He could easily decline the option, making him just a rental. At 35, his age is also a factor. Lugo is a fine pitcher, but he’s being paid about what he’s worth. Perhaps market factors push his price a bit higher, but don’t expect any big prospects to be included in a Lugo deal.

 

Edward Cabrera

• Field value: 37.5
• Salary owed: 17.7
• Surplus: 19.8

The Marlins may end up getting a solid return for a starting pitcher - just not the one we all initially expected. Cabrera has been polarizing, but he’s now in the midst of the best season of his career. There’s risk here, as Cabrera is out of options and doesn’t have much of a track record of success. But there’s also clear upside, and with an additional three years of arbitration after 2025, he’s an attractive option for a team confident in its pitching development.

 

Jake Bird

• Field value: 17.3
• Salary owed: 7.7
• Surplus: 9.6

Bird is this year’s unknown reliever who quickly becomes an industry darling as the deadline approaches. The 29-year-old has been Colorado’s best pitcher by far, and a team in its position should always be looking to flip valuable relievers for future talent whenever possible. But the Rockies don’t operate like other teams, so we’ll have to wait and see if they act rationally here.

 

What to make of the Rangers

Since their unexpected championship run in 2023, the Rangers have still yet to find their footing, and with just a 23.3% chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs, they appear to be likely sellers. Last week, Patrick Corbin ($2.8M) and Adolis García ($0.1M) were featured, but offseason additions Kyle Higashioka (-$7.9M) and Jake Burger ($4.3M) are possible trade chips as well, despite their disappointing 2025 seasons. In the bullpen, Chris Martin ($0.7M) is likely to stay put out of respect, as the 39-year-old chose to sign with Texas in his final season before retirement due to its proximity to home. But Robert Garcia ($19.3M), Hoby Milner ($2.2M), Shawn Armstrong ($0.9M), Jacob Webb ($0.8M) and Luke Jackson (-$0.3M) provide a wide range of veteran trade chips.

The rotation is where things get interesting. As rentals, Tyler Mahle (-$4.6M) and Jon Gray ($0.4M) would have been obvious choices, but the former has a strained rotator cuff and won’t return until after the trade deadline, while the latter hasn’t pitched yet this season due to a shoulder injury of his own. Nathan Eovaldi (-$3.1M) and his 1.75 ERA look attractive on the surface, but his age (35) and remaining salary ($53.1M) may give pause, and it’s unlikely the Rangers would be eager to trade the right-hander after re-signing him just this past offseason.

Could Jacob deGrom (-$35.7M) be the wild card? Despite totalling only nine starts across his first two years in Texas, he’s back and has been about as effective as vintage deGrom, trading some velo and strikeouts for durability (at least in theory). He’s 37, a huge injury risk and owed $93M through his age-39 season (hence, his negative trade value) with a full no-trade clause to boot. But he’s one of only a few potentially available pitchers who could be a true difference-maker in October. It’s nowhere near likely, but keep an eye out for deGrom’s name in rumors as the deadline nears.

 

How aggressive will the Rays be?

One of this week’s biggest stories was the Blue Jays soaring over the Yankees to take the lead in the AL East. But the latter’s slump also puts them in a direct tie with the Rays for second in the division. Somehow, those scrappy Rays have done it again, riding a durable rotation and deep lineup directly to contention. They just reinstated offseason addition Ha-Seong Kim from the injured list, addressing arguably their biggest weakness at shortstop, but they have room for much more.

The outfield has been unimpressive. Josh Lowe is a mainstay, but names like Chandler Simpson, Kameron Misner, Christopher Morel and Jake Mangum have been rotated throughout the other two spots with mixed results. The team could also use a better catcher and maybe a pitching upgrade or two; while the rotation has been durable, it hasn’t always been the most effective, ranking 19th in MLB in starting pitching fWAR.

As always, the Rays have plenty of resources at their disposal. They rank first in MLB in overall minor league surplus value according to our model, and that doesn’t even count recent graduates like Simpson ($18.2M) and Curtis Mead ($8.7M). That’s all without a single true standout prospect; Carson Williams at $34.5M leads the way, but that makes him only the 21st most valuable prospect in baseball according to our model. Instead, as usual, it’s all about depth; the Rays have nine prospects worth at least $10M, and an additional seven prospects worth at least $5M. That could bode well at this year’s deadline, which lacks a true quality superstar to chase but has perhaps makes up for it in quantity of useful players. It’s just a question of how aggressive the Rays will choose to be, especially in a year with lower expectations, and as the team enters a difficult stretch of mostly road games over the summer.