We’re fast approaching the Nov. 21 deadline for all MLB teams to tender player contracts. So which players are likely to be left out and non-tendered? We can leverage our model for clues. We’ve noticed that most teams will use surplus value as a key method for determining whether a player is worth what he’s expected to receive in arbitration – if he projects to be worth more than that number, he’s pretty certain to get a contract; if he’s under that number,...

One of the most prominent trade-related storylines of this MLB season was that of Sandy Alcántara, a former Cy Young Award winner making his return from Tommy John surgery with the rebuilding Miami Marlins.  The Marlins held onto Alcántara last offseason after he missed all of 2024, and planned to use the first half of 2025 to showcase his health before sending him off at the deadline. Some rust was to be expected, but the degree to which Alcántara struggled changed...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down a handful of transactions from the last two months of the season. Then, they discuss the offseason outlooks for the teams eliminated in the Wild Card round. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link below:     Download link:...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down the model's performance at the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline and all of the biggest trends seen in the market. Then, they analyze the biggest trades and the most active teams, including the Padres, Twins, Yankees and Mets. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down all the latest trades leading up to the deadline, including Josh Naylor to the Mariners, Ryan McMahon to the Yankees and more. Then, they discuss the latest rumors and preview the deadline, including bubble teams like the Rays, Guardians, Twins and Cardinals. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the...