Which MLB organizations are better at winning more with less? Who gets the most bang for the buck?  One feature of our site that is available to GM subscribers is our Team Rankings page, which lists all 30 teams in various categories, including field value, salary, and surplus value. Surplus value, in turn, can be filtered by levels – majors, minors, and total.  Majors Surplus Value measures the degree to which teams are maximizing their budget to win at that level. After all,...

There is a concept in the tech world, popularized by research and consulting firm Gartner, of the “Hype Cycle,” which is widely applicable, and can even be used as a lens through which you can follow your favorite baseball prospects. The Gartner Hype Cycle describes the life of a new or emerging technology in five stages, outlining how expectations for that technology evolve from the time it is introduced to the time it becomes commonplace. Sean Morash, a contributor to Baseball...

How did our model do at the deadline?   Starting with the Aaron Civale trade in early July, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 72 Number accepted by the model: 60  Acceptance rate: 83.3% Average value variance per deal: 3.7   Not bad, but we’ve done better.    Wins: Significant trades on which our model was very close – aka “fair deals”:   Hunter Harvey, Austin Slater, A.J. Puk, Randy Arozarena, James Paxton, Austin...

Welcome to the 2024 Trade Deadline Roundup. All trades will be added to this article as they are reported.     July 30 Baltimore Orioles acquire DH/OF Eloy Jiménez (-$9.5M) and cash ($5.5M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Trey McGough ($0.3M) It took some time for the cash to be reported in this one, but it'll be a base $4.0M for 2024 and then an additional $1.5M if the Orioles choose to buy out Jiménez's 2025 club option. Given his projected...

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres “are aggressively looking for help, but are telling teams that prized catching prospect Ethan Salas is untouchable.” Assuming that’s true, there's a contradiction here: you can’t be aggressive if you don’t have much to be aggressive with. Let’s take a look at what Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has to trade from his farm if Salas is excluded:   Leodalis De Vries Trade value:...

After a hot start where they looked like the best team in baseball, the Yankees have come crashing down to Earth, playing sub-.500 ball (18-21) since June 1. Along the way, several flaws have been exposed. Now, facing the deadline, they need help if they want to stop the skid. They could use another bullpen arm, and at least one (probably two) more bats, preferably ones who can play the infield.  They’ve gotten precious little production from Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMaheiu, and...

The Blue Jays finally appear to be at the point where they’ve thrown in the towel on the season – reportedly, they’re now open to trading veteran players on expiring contracts. But not Vlad or Bo. Why is that? Let’s explore what might be going on there, both from the Blue Jays’ point of view and that of the market.   Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Projected trade deadline values: AFV: $41.3M Salary: $36.4M Surplus: $4.9M   It’s complicated – more...

We’re running a series of articles this summer on trade candidates on teams who look to be sellers at the deadline. Now up: the Los Angeles Angels.   Another MLB season brings another Angels disappointment, as the club’s quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 2014 once again looks hopeless. The departure of Shohei Ohtani, another prolonged injury absence from Mike Trout, and an overall lack of quality talent at the major-league level have all added up to give...

Miami Marlins’ new President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix didn’t take long to shake things up in his first year at the helm of his new club. In May, Bendix struck a deal with AJ Preller and the Padres, sending Luis Arraez to San Diego for a four-prospect package.  It wasn’t entirely clear at the time of his hiring what direction Bendix would take the team in his new position, but it sure is now. The Marlins were a surprise playoff team last year under former...

The Oakland (soon to be Sacramento) Athletics are one of the most clear-cut sellers for this upcoming deadline. That makes them ripe for the picking for contenders, as the A’s are likely to be open to parting with any and everyone not named Zack Gelof. There are a select few pieces from the A’s that contenders may find particularly interesting (one, J.D. Davis, has already been traded to the Yankees).   All surplus-value numbers below are in $ millions.   The Big...