Isaac Paredes has been one of the most-rumored trade candidates this offseason, largely because the Astros have an infield glut, and they’re not sure where to play him. They’ve been in serious discussions with multiple teams, yet Spring Training has begun, and Paredes is still an Astro.    What gives?   Surplus value First off, the Astros are probably seeking more value in trade than our estimated surplus value of $13.6M. But let’s break that down: He has only...

Recently, Jose Ramirez signed a surprising extension with the Guardians, overriding his previous contract. The new one simply pays him $25M per year, for seven years, through his age-39 season. The Guardians are the only team he’s ever played for, and clearly, he wants to keep it that way. So how does it look on paper? Short answer: it’s great for the team. Partly, that’s because it’s not really $25M per year. There are deferrals in the deal – $10M per year, paid...

As another postseason unfolds, we’ve been privy to yet another premature October exit from the Phillies. The competitive window that began as a Cinderella run in 2022 has quickly soured into four straight years of disappointment for a fan base in desperate search of a ring. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has made a series of big-money, win-now moves in an effort to get his club across the finish line, which have yielded diminishing results year over year. It's fair to...

We’re fast approaching the Nov. 21 deadline for all MLB teams to tender player contracts. So which players are likely to be left out and non-tendered? We can leverage our model for clues. We’ve noticed that most teams will use surplus value as a key method for determining whether a player is worth what he’s expected to receive in arbitration – if he projects to be worth more than that number, he’s pretty certain to get a contract; if he’s under that number,...

One of the most prominent trade-related storylines of this MLB season was that of Sandy Alcántara, a former Cy Young Award winner making his return from Tommy John surgery with the rebuilding Miami Marlins.  The Marlins held onto Alcántara last offseason after he missed all of 2024, and planned to use the first half of 2025 to showcase his health before sending him off at the deadline. Some rust was to be expected, but the degree to which Alcántara struggled changed...

The Minnesota Twins were the most active team during this year's trade deadline, executing nine trades and parting ways with 11 players from their 26-man roster. The trades included a diverse range of players, from impending free agents to pre-arbitration talent and everything in between.  Among the most significant transactions was the deal that sent Carlos Correa, along with $33 million of the $104 million remaining on his contract, back to the Houston Astros. Beyond just the...

Now that the deadline has passed, we can see more clearly that some teams didn't fill all their needs. In particular, the Cubs and Red Sox both needed a top-of-the-rotation starter, and didn't get one. Both are being criticized now for being too value-conscious, and/or too difficult to negotiate with. So let's play some woulda coulda shoulda, and see what might have been.   The Cubs It’s tough to envision the Cubs going deep into the playoffs with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin...

How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?   Starting with the Josh Naylor trade, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 64 Number accepted by the model: 57 Acceptance rate: 88% Average value variance per deal: 3.5   We’re pretty happy with that. The trade market is inherently inefficient, and there are multiple variables involved, so to go 57-7 feels good. Also, it’s a bit of an improvement on last year, where our acceptance rate was 83% and the average...

Welcome to the 2025 Trade Deadline Roundup. All trades will be added to this article as they are reported.     July 31 Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Shelby Miller ($0.4M), LHP Jordan Montgomery (-$7.5M) and cash (reportedly $5.5M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for a PTBNL or cash Miller was an excellent story, returning to a Diamondbacks team for whom he'd disappointed mightily as a starter from 2016-18, only to turn into a dominant reliever and provide one of the only...

The Phillies and Mets, bitter rivals in the NL East, share a handful of weak spots, and could end up bidding against each other to acquire impactful pieces this month. They both need: A quality power bat Centerfield help Multiple high-leverage bullpen pieces   So let’s use BTV’s trade simulator to see which team can put together the more appealing trade package to fill those holes.   Power bat: Taylor Ward (Value: 7.6) The Angels are not out of it, but...