Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This will be an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 14.4 Salary owed: 12.8 Surplus: 1.6 (⬇️) Despite some improvement, Robert is still...

Yes, it’s only May, but we’re getting to the point of the season where trade deadline considerations will start to emerge from each team – on both the selling and buying side. To be clear, it’s too early for most teams to pick a lane. But there are a few obvious sellers, and a few trade candidates worth keeping an eye on. But what’s unique about this year so far is that the oft-rumored-about players are not doing well. They’re performing below expectations...

Now that we’re well into the 2025 season, it’s time to do our semi-annual check of our model’s correlation to the market this past offseason. Along the way, we’ll throw in a few observations in trade market trends. Let’s get to the results. By our count, for the 2024/25 offseason: Number of trades: 81 Number of trades accepted by our model: 77 Acceptance rate: 95.1% Average variance (in absolute value terms): 2.5 So there were 81 trades, of which 77 fell into...

As Opening Day approaches, the Blue Jays are one of the most intriguing teams in baseball. Their once-up-and-coming core is now set to reach free agency next winter, giving 2025 the distinct feel of a make-or-break season.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still offer plenty of firepower alongside free agent signee Anthony Santander, and a rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and new acquisition Max Scherzer could be one of the best in the majors. Meanwhile,...

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Now that we’re at the tail end of the offseason, it’s time to reflect: How closely did our free agent estimates correlate to the market? Let’s find out.   The numbers By our count, there have been 126 free agent signings so far. Sure, there are still a few stragglers out there (David Robertson, Alex Verdugo, et al), but we’re at the point where we’re close enough to an endpoint to start self-evaluating our model. The tricky question is, what’s a good...

In 2023, Brandon Belt put up 2.2 fWAR, a 138 WRC+, and a slash line of .254/.369/.490. He was also known for providing quality defense at 1B. Despite those numbers, not a single team signed him to a deal last year. He remains unsigned now, and is assumed to be retired – albeit not of his own volition. This year, there are still dozens of veteran major leaguers without a deal – as there were last year, and as there are every year around this time. Behind the scenes, in our...

You may have noticed that in recent years, teams seem more and more reluctant to fork over big, long contracts to even the most proven players. Despite speculation about longer-term offers, Alex Bregman signed only a three-year deal with opt-outs. Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, and many others got two years or less.  One reason? Front offices hate getting stuck with underwater contracts. The longer the term, and the bigger the contract, the greater the chance you may get stuck with an...

Welcome to the 2024-25 Offseason Roundup. Any additional trades will be added to this article as they are reported. — Los Angeles Dodgers acquire international bonus pool space ($1.5M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for OF Arnaldo Lantigua ($0.5M)Los Angeles Dodgers acquire international bonus pool space ($0.75M) from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for OF Dylan Campbell ($0.5M) The Dodgers made a pair of moves to boost their international bonus pool and allow them to hand...

We often view the business of baseball as separate from the product on the field. We find ourselves wondering why all 30 teams aren’t aggressively pursuing upgrades in free agency every offseason in a quest for the title. We wonder why there aren’t more small-market teams behaving like last year’s Royals, who used free agency to go from 56 wins to the playoffs. What’s stopping every team from doing the same? As fans, we measure success in wins. This is true at both the...