Our model currently estimates Shohei Ohtani’s median trade value at $45.0M. Meanwhile, the media and fans alike are going wild, suggesting massive trade packages in exchange for the two-way star. So who’s correct? Is our model too low on Ohtani? We don’t think so. For starters, his $45.0M value is by far the largest we’ve ever seen for a rental. That tracks -- Ohtani is two star players in one, and one could argue there has never been a player of his magnitude in the...

Recently, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted that a potential trade package for Shohei Ohtani would either meet or exceed that of Juan Soto. We disagree. We also see lots of articles – and lots of trade proposals here on our site – who believe that any team that trades for Ohtani would do so with an eye toward extending him long-term, and because of that, his value should be higher. Again, we disagree. Our current estimate of Ohtani’s median value is $52M, which is the...

When news broke on Feb. 4 of the [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7685"]trade to the Dodgers, there was an avalanche of media coverage. As is typical, it started with the news, then was followed by a slew of analyses about what the trade meant for each team. Here at BTV, we just sat back and waited. Why? Not only was the trade not yet official; the reports were also missing one of the most important pieces of the puzzle: how much money was Boston paying to cover the remaining $96M...

It’s mid-January; time to take stock. How is our model doing vs. real life?   As of January 18: Total trades: 36 Total trades accepted by our model: 30 Acceptance rate: 83.3% Variance: +/- 4.2 Basically, the model has been right five out of every six trades, and overall the numbers have held up reasonably. As a reminder, we keep a running tally of all trades, log each one individually on our site, and keep score via these tracker updates, so you can see how the model is faring...

Amidst all the noise about big-ticket free agent signings, a few trades happened at the recent Winter Meetings as well. Let’s break them down: Rangers trade [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="8839"] to the White Sox for [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="9693"] Despite the obvious overpay, we’re going to take partial credit for calling the light return on this one. Our model had Mazara’s value at zero -- which means we see no surplus value --...

If you’re a GM, this is the list you don’t want to have your players on. According to our calculations, the following 50 players have the least amount of trade value right now – or, put another way, the most amount of negative value. These are not necessarily bad players; they’re players whose contracts are bigger than their projected field value. Not surprisingly, the common thread here is that most of them are older and past their prime. Only eight of these 50...

Editor's update: This article was published prior to the news of the tragic passing of Tyler Skaggs. We share the feeling of loss in the baseball community, and pass along our condolences to Tyler's family, friends, and the Angels' community. Once again, the Angels are mired in mediocrity, despite having the single best player in baseball. Obviously, Mike Trout is not tradeable. He’s in a pantheon of his own, so much so that his adjusted field value (AFV) is a ridiculous $468M....