Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Prominent trade candidates Jarren Duran Field value: 102.7 Salary owed: 40.3 Surplus: 62.5 (⬇️) Duran has been in the rumor mill of late,...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 13 Salary owed: 11.7 Surplus: 1.3 (⬆️) Robert has perked up a tiny bit (maybe...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 12.6 Salary owed: 12.3 Surplus: 0.3 (⬇️) Robert continues to trend down, because as...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This will be an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 14.4 Salary owed: 12.8 Surplus: 1.6 (⬇️) Despite some improvement, Robert is still...

Yes, it’s only May, but we’re getting to the point of the season where trade deadline considerations will start to emerge from each team – on both the selling and buying side. To be clear, it’s too early for most teams to pick a lane. But there are a few obvious sellers, and a few trade candidates worth keeping an eye on. But what’s unique about this year so far is that the oft-rumored-about players are not doing well. They’re performing below expectations...

Now that we’re well into the 2025 season, it’s time to do our semi-annual check of our model’s correlation to the market this past offseason. Along the way, we’ll throw in a few observations in trade market trends. Let’s get to the results. By our count, for the 2024/25 offseason: Number of trades: 81 Number of trades accepted by our model: 77 Acceptance rate: 95.1% Average variance (in absolute value terms): 2.5 So there were 81 trades, of which 77 fell into...

Want to work for BTV? We have an opening for a part-time data analyst. This is a paid position. We're looking for someone who can help update our model behind the scenes, run updates, and contribute ideas to make the site -- and our data -- even better. If interested, please email us at: baseballtradevalues@gmail.com In your email, let us know about your relevant experience (include a resume if possible), and why you're interested.

Now that we’re at the tail end of the offseason, it’s time to reflect: How closely did our free agent estimates correlate to the market? Let’s find out.   The numbers By our count, there have been 126 free agent signings so far. Sure, there are still a few stragglers out there (David Robertson, Alex Verdugo, et al), but we’re at the point where we’re close enough to an endpoint to start self-evaluating our model. The tricky question is, what’s a good...

In 2023, Brandon Belt put up 2.2 fWAR, a 138 WRC+, and a slash line of .254/.369/.490. He was also known for providing quality defense at 1B. Despite those numbers, not a single team signed him to a deal last year. He remains unsigned now, and is assumed to be retired – albeit not of his own volition. This year, there are still dozens of veteran major leaguers without a deal – as there were last year, and as there are every year around this time. Behind the scenes, in our...

You may have noticed that in recent years, teams seem more and more reluctant to fork over big, long contracts to even the most proven players. Despite speculation about longer-term offers, Alex Bregman signed only a three-year deal with opt-outs. Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, and many others got two years or less.  One reason? Front offices hate getting stuck with underwater contracts. The longer the term, and the bigger the contract, the greater the chance you may get stuck with an...