We recently updated the values on our site, which is normal for us around this time of year. The purpose is to correlate to the market, using free agent contracts as a kind of going rate for our dollars-per-projected-WAR calculations. If the first batch of free agents is skewing high, it may be an indication that our initial assumptions were low on that basis. Why is that? Most of it is inflation. We assume a 3% inflation rate, which is the long-term average. However, as you probably know,...

On Dec. 30, 2023, the Red Sox traded Chris Sale to the Braves for Vaughn Grissom, and sent $17M to cover Sale’s salary to boot. Here’s what that trade looked like in our model at the time:     So it was accepted by our model, albeit as a major overpay by Atlanta. --------- Fast-forward one year: Sale has won the Cy Young Award, after producing 6.4 fWAR in a remarkable comeback season. Grissom has struggled badly, producing -0.7 fWAR. So from today’s perspective,...

Here’s an interesting twist: The A’s will be players in the trade market, but not the way you might suspect.  After selling off the core of their last competitive team (Chapman, Olson, Murphy et al) for questionable prospects (most of whom didn’t pan out), GM David Forst recently disclosed that the team will be actively looking to augment their major-league club in the trade market. He also mentioned that they’re keeping Brent Rooker, who, after a 5+ fWAR season,...

The Cardinals have reportedly told their veteran players they will look to trade them as the team pivots younger. So who could they trade, and what could they get for them? Let’s focus on four players who are all in their 30s, with at least one year remaining on a fixed contract, who can still be productive on the field. All four are overpaid and in various stages of decline, but they can still help another team. Let’s take them one at a time.   Nolan Arenado Arenado has...

Which MLB organizations are better at winning more with less? Who gets the most bang for the buck?  One feature of our site that is available to GM subscribers is our Team Rankings page, which lists all 30 teams in various categories, including field value, salary, and surplus value. Surplus value, in turn, can be filtered by levels – majors, minors, and total.  Majors Surplus Value measures the degree to which teams are maximizing their budget to win at that level. After all,...

How did our model do at the deadline?   Starting with the Aaron Civale trade in early July, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 72 Number accepted by the model: 60  Acceptance rate: 83.3% Average value variance per deal: 3.7   Not bad, but we’ve done better.    Wins: Significant trades on which our model was very close – aka “fair deals”:   Hunter Harvey, Austin Slater, A.J. Puk, Randy Arozarena, James Paxton, Austin...

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres “are aggressively looking for help, but are telling teams that prized catching prospect Ethan Salas is untouchable.” Assuming that’s true, there's a contradiction here: you can’t be aggressive if you don’t have much to be aggressive with. Let’s take a look at what Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has to trade from his farm if Salas is excluded:   Leodalis De Vries Trade value:...

After a hot start where they looked like the best team in baseball, the Yankees have come crashing down to Earth, playing sub-.500 ball (18-21) since June 1. Along the way, several flaws have been exposed. Now, facing the deadline, they need help if they want to stop the skid. They could use another bullpen arm, and at least one (probably two) more bats, preferably ones who can play the infield.  They’ve gotten precious little production from Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMaheiu, and...

The Blue Jays finally appear to be at the point where they’ve thrown in the towel on the season – reportedly, they’re now open to trading veteran players on expiring contracts. But not Vlad or Bo. Why is that? Let’s explore what might be going on there, both from the Blue Jays’ point of view and that of the market.   Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Projected trade deadline values: AFV: $41.3M Salary: $36.4M Surplus: $4.9M   It’s complicated – more...

BTV fans, the time has come to change the way we operate. Beginning in early May, access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments sections will no longer be free, as in the past (see below for details on why). Instead, we will be introducing a new subscription tier, called Pro, which will enable full access to these site features. You’ll now have three choices of subscription tiers: Pro, which provides access to our Trade Simulator, Trade Boards, and Comments, as well as...