We’re fast approaching the Nov. 21 deadline for all MLB teams to tender player contracts. So which players are likely to be left out and non-tendered?

We can leverage our model for clues. We’ve noticed that most teams will use surplus value as a key method for determining whether a player is worth what he’s expected to receive in arbitration – if he projects to be worth more than that number, he’s pretty certain to get a contract; if he’s under that number, he’s at risk of being non-tendered. 

That’s not the only criteria, of course – players whose salaries project to be close to their field value may get the benefit of the doubt; players on contending teams who can contribute on the field even while getting a bit overpaid may still be useful to hang onto; and younger players who have struggled and are getting pricey, but still have upside, may get another year to figure things out.

So let’s break down our list of non-tender candidates into categories.

 

Former successful big leaguers

These players have had some success in the past, but have struggled more recently, and are getting expensive. The biggest names:

Jonah Heim is a former All-star who struggled badly in 2025 (.213/.271/.322, 69 WRC+, with -0.5 fWAR), and is projected by Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors to earn $6M. With our model projecting his field value at $0.4M, he’s underwater by $5.4M. The Rangers will likely move on from him, as they are rumored to be in cost-cutting mode.

For similar reasons, we also expect Texas to non-tender Adolis Garcia, despite his popularity and heroics in previous years. His downslide is just too pronounced (.227/.271/.394, 83 WRC+, 0.7 fWAR). Our estimate of his field value is $4.7M, but he’s expected to earn $12.1M, resulting in a negative value of -$7.4M.

Jonathan India won the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, but hasn’t been the same player since (.233/.323/.346, 89 WRC+, -0.3 fWAR in 2025). We think he’s worth $4.4M in 2026, so his projected $7.4M salary looks too steep for the Royals’ budget.

Alek Manoah was an All-star in 2022 and received downballot Cy Young Award votes, but he’s fallen on hard times since then. This year, the Blue Jays DFA’d him, and the Braves claimed him on waivers, but based on his recent numbers and projections, he seems unlikely to be tendered an estimated $2.2M contract (then again, that’s not so expensive that Atlanta might take a gamble on him).

Other familiar names: Chas McCormick was once a regular for the Astros, but is coming off of two down years (65 WRC+ in 2024, 62 WRC+ in 2025) and is projected to earn $3.4M. Houston can replace him easily. The Yankees have now seen three straight years of below-average offense from utility guy Oswaldo Cabrera, so he may be deemed replaceable (albeit his $1.2M salary is nothing to New York).

 

Veterans getting too expensive relative to their production

These guys were not all-stars, but productive enough for their teams in the past. Now that middling production is getting pricey. 

Nathanael Lowe is projected to earn $13.4M, yet is coming off a season where he hit for a 91 WRC+ and -0.4 fWAR, and was traded at the deadline. On paper, we think he’s worth $5.1M, and Boston is not desperate enough to eat that $8.3M negative surplus. Boston will move on, and give Tristan Casas one more shot at 1B. 

Another first baseman, Ryan Mountcastle, had a dreadful year (81 WRC+, -0.4 fWAR), and is not worth $7.8M on paper. We think he’s worth $2.8M, and cost-conscious Baltimore will move on. 

Connor Wong is due around $1.6M, but is unlikely to get it from the Red Sox after producing -0.7 fWAR. He’ll try to find a minor-league deal somewhere.

Christopher Morel’s time in Tampa Bay is likely coming to a close, as the Rays seem unlikely to pay $2.8M for a guy who is coming off two consecutive negative-fWAR seasons. The Rays may also move on from Taylor Walls, who is not worth either the club option of $2.45M or his projected arbitration salary of $2M, based on his consistent lack of offensive production.

 

Former top prospects who just haven’t put it together

The clock may have run out on these younger players who were expected to deliver more.

In Kansas City, MJ Melendez (salary projection: $2.6M) and Michael Massey ($2M) have both struggled and seem unlikely to stick on the Royals’ roster. In St. Louis, Nolan Gorman’s expected salary of $2.9M may be too high for the Cardinals to stomach, as he’s projected by our model to be worth only $1.4M on the field. 

Former Cardinal Dylan Carlson has bounced around lately, and is not worth even a $1.5M arbitration salary – at this point he’s more likely to sign a non-guaranteed minor-league deal somewhere. 

The same is true for good friends Nolan Jones (Cleveland) and Tyler Freeman (Colorado), who were traded for each other this past March, but have not produced for their respective teams.

Alek Thomas just hasn’t hit enough to warrant an arbitration contract from Arizona. They may fork over $2.2M for his defense, but he’s only worth $1.4M in our model.

Rounding out this category are guys like Ezequiel Duran and Alex Faedo (Tampa Bay), who were previously given a lot of rope, and Padres catcher Luis Campusano, who is clearly not in favor in San Diego because they keep signing older free agents like Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonaldo to play ahead of him.

 

Injury cases

This is the toughest category to gauge, because we don’t have access to medical information that may skew a team’s decision one way or another. But on paper, here’s how things look:

Luis Garcia (the Astros pitcher) is a lock to be non-tendered instead of paying him $2.2M, given his latest elbow surgery news. Nick Madrigal (Mets) is in minor-league deal territory now after multiple injuries. Josh Winckowski of the Red Sox is out of options and hitting his arb years, but he might get one more shot after recovering from elbow issues. 

The Dodgers have three pitchers with health issues who may be non-tendered: Tony Gonsolin is projected for $5.4M, Brusdar Graterol for $2.8M, and Evan Phillips for $6.1M. None project to be worth those amounts, but the Dodgers are crafty enough that maybe they pick one of those for a gamble.

 

Borderline cases

Gavin Lux ran hot and cold for the Reds, with average offense offsetting horrible defensive marks, resulting in replacement-level production that may not warrant a $5M salary for a small-market team. (It’s close, though: we have him at $4.9M in field value.)

The Padres’ Gavin Sheets was a great reclamation project for A.J. Preller, but his track record, along with some mean regression, suggests he’s not really worth the $4.3M salary he’s estimated to get (we think he’s worth $2.7M), and Preller needs to thread his bang-for-the-buck needle very carefully.

Similarly, Jake Burger is underwater relative to his expected production, albeit not egregiously so ($2.9M field value, $3.5M in salary, so -$0.6M surplus), so it’s possible the Rangers may move on. 

A few months ago, there was no way Andrew Vaughn would get $7.8M in arbitration, but after a trade to Milwaukee, a second-half surge, and some playoff heroics, even a small-market team like the Brewers might be convinced to pay that. On paper, his track record suggests there’s some mean reversion to come that would bring his field value below that line, so it really depends on how confident the Brewers feel that this new version of Vaughn is the one that sticks, and is worth that amount. His price tag is a bit steep, in other words, but they may just swallow it.

 

A whole bunch of fringe-y guys

The rest of our model’s list of non-tender candidates consists mostly of less productive players who don’t move the needle all that much. It includes: Kyle Wright (SP, Royals), whose injuries have derailed his career; Jack Suwinski (OF, Pirates), who hit the majors with a bang, but failed to adjust once the league figured him out; Colin Holderman (RP, Pirates), a once-promising reliever; Thairo Estrada (2B, Rockies), former Giants/Rockies starter coming off a lost season; and a lot of relievers and bench players who just aren’t worth even the relatively low amounts of money they’re projected to earn.

To be fair, many of these players will find a team -- but will likely have to settle for less.