Yes, it’s only May, but we’re getting to the point of the season where trade deadline considerations will start to emerge from each team – on both the selling and buying side. To be clear, it’s too early for most teams to pick a lane. But there are a few obvious sellers, and a few trade candidates worth keeping an eye on.

But what’s unique about this year so far is that the oft-rumored-about players are not doing well. They’re performing below expectations (some exceedingly so), so interest in them may be cooling. Let’s take a closer look at how the values of these players have declined.

 

Pitchers

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Offseason surplus value: 53.2
• Current surplus value: 33.3
• Difference: -19.9

At the start of the season, Alcantara was the most obvious trade chip of all. He’s a former Cy Young Award winner who, if available, would figure to be sought after by virtually every contender. Everyone needs pitching, right? But he’s off to a rough start, so much so that our model has dropped his trade value significantly. He might just be shaking off the rust, but the metrics under the hood (including a K%-BB% ratio that has shrunk down to just 1.7%) aren’t pretty, and the industry is beginning to wonder. Keep in mind he’s under a fixed contract through 2026 (for $17M per year), with a $20M team option for 2027. For the moment, that still looks like a good deal, but if he continues to struggle, the surplus value in those years will shrink, there will be less margin for error to stay above water, and that 2027 option might not even be worth exercising.

 

Erick Fedde

• Offseason surplus value: 14.2
• Current surplus value: 4.5
• Difference: -9.7

Fedde’s 2024 is starting to look like an outlier. He put up 3.4 fWAR and his best-ever K%-BB% ratio (at least in his MLB career) of 14%. So far this year his K% is down dramatically, and the walks are up, so there’s no difference anymore – which looks more like his earlier, middling years with the Nationals. Our model suggested the White Sox could have gotten more for him at last year’s deadline before he turned into a pumpkin. But now that he is back to being that pumpkin, the Cards (who have little else to trade) might find little interest.

 

Raisel Iglesias

• Offseason surplus value: -1.4
• Current surplus value: -10.5
• Difference: -8..9

The lone reliever on this list, Iglesias is here not because the Braves are expected to be sellers (although that’s a possibility), but because he’s off to such a dreadful start that, even if they’re contending, they might want to move on from him. As of this writing, he is currently dead last (in 198th place) on the Fangraphs leaderboard of relief pitching, with -0.7 fWAR, with atrocious rate stats. He’s making $16M in the last year of his contract, which means the Braves would likely need to eat most of that money to move him. The only silver lining is that his K%-BB% ratio looks… okay, and if some team thinks he’s fixable based on that, well, maybe they can move him there.

 

Zack Littell

• Offseason surplus value: 7
• Current surplus value: 0.7
• Difference: -6.3

It’s not like Littell was super obvious as a trade chip, but the Rays have a history of dealing guys with this profile. Their pitching development system turned him from a journeyman reliever into a capable starter, but now he’s getting older, his years of control are declining, he’s making a bit of money, and they’re working from a position of strength. Problem is, he’s been bad – strikeouts are down, walks are up, and all the underlying metrics look unappealing. If this keeps going, there will be little interest.

 

Tyler Anderson

• Offseason surplus value: -1.2
• Current surplus value: -4.8
• Difference: -3.6

The Angels are a mess, and look like they’re going nowhere. Anderson is in the final year of his contract, making $13M per year – which seems, at first glance, reasonable. He’s been a healthy workhorse, but his pedestrian metrics raise the question of whether he’s really an upgrade over a contending team’s internal options, enough so that they’d be willing to cover his remaining salary and give something up in return. Based on his trendline for 1-ish fWAR for the season, that seems doubtful, and he’s currently underwater. The good news is, his ERA tends to look better than his underlying metrics, so maybe some team will bite on that.

 

Hitters

 

Taylor Ward

• Offseason surplus value: 18.1
• Current surplus value: 5.6
• Difference: -12.5

There was a (false?) rumor in the offseason that the Angels had a trade lined up for Ward, but clearly it never materialized. Unfortunately for them, his field value has continued to go south, as his arb salaries have climbed northward, which has diminished his surplus value. He’s also hitting below the Mendoza line, with a well-below-average WRC+, and even if he rights that ship, he’ll only get more expensive in salary terms, so there’s not much upside for his trade value. He won’t bring much. Sorry, Angels fans – yet another trade chip withering away.

 

Ryan McMahon

• Offseason surplus value: -20.5
• Current surplus value: -31.8
• Difference: -11.3

Despite rumors abounding last summer of trade interest in McMahon, the Rockies were never reportedly interested in moving him. He’s apparently one of owner Dick Monfort’s favorite players, so, if the boss likes him, he stays. Trouble is, as time has gone on, McMahon has reverted to his career norms, including a significantly below-average batting line. Couple all that with the fact that he’s owed $41.6M for the remainder of his contract, and it’s clear why he isn’t likely to be a trade chip.

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Offseason surplus value: 16.1
• Current surplus value: 5.9
• Difference: -10.2

The White Sox held on to Robert at last year’s deadline because they set a high price for him, and no team met it. After a horrid 2024, they likely regretted that decision, as interest in him soured in the offseason (although the Dodgers almost sent James Outman and an unnamed prospect for him – not a great haul, but one that was probably fair, all things considered, at the time). Robert is off to another rough start this year, which has tanked his value further. To his credit, he’s shown a little more life lately, still has the tools and upside to be an impact player, and is in his prime-age years, so it’s a bit of a mystery why he’s not playing well (his injury history may also be a factor, and has scared away teams in the past). So we’re looking at a very meager return at this point.

 

Ryan Mountcastle

• Offseason surplus value: 8.8
• Current surplus value: 1.2
• Difference: -7.6

There were rumors a few weeks ago that the Orioles were shopping Mountcastle, to ease their logjam at 1B, and maybe make room for incoming prospects like Coby Mayo and/or Samuel Basallo. Unfortunately, Mountcastle is performing so poorly that any interest in him has likely cooled. He’s hitting below the Mendoza line, with a WRC+ that is 45% below average, and providing negative fWAR.

 

Andrew Vaughn

• Offseason surplus value: 0.8
• Current surplus value: -4.7
• Difference: -5.5

Of the potential White Sox trade chips, Vaughn was in the rumor mill less than Luis Robert, but he was nonetheless a trade candidate, because he’s running out of control time. Trouble is, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball this year, and that, coupled with his history of struggles, both offensively and defensively, suggest that he’s more likely to be a DFA at this point than a trade chip, with Chicago likely eating the remaining money on his current-year arbitration contract. It’s fair to say this former top draft pick is a bust.