Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Prominent trade candidates

Jarren Duran

• Field value: 102.7
• Salary owed: 40.3
• Surplus: 62.5 (⬇️)

Duran has been in the rumor mill of late, while his value has declined a bit as his bat has cooled off. Even so, a trade to San Diego seems unlikely, given that the Padres don’t have the prospect capital to pull it off (assuming their top two are off limits). One exception scenario would be if the Red Sox attached a bad contract, such as that of Trevor Story or Masataka Yoshida, to the deal, which would lessen the prospect load considerably. It’s possible that a deal could be worked out with another team with more player capital, though.

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 10
• Salary owed: 11
• Surplus: -1.0 (⬇️)

Robert’s trade value has officially gone negative, as his expected production of $10M for the remainder of this season is slightly under the $11M he’s still owed. The White Sox clearly waited too long on this one.

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 63
• Salary owed: 48.3
• Surplus: 14.7 (⬇️)

Is Sandy finally starting to turn his season around? He had a decent outing against the Rockies, but that isn’t saying much. He’s still getting hit hard. And with the continued passage of time, his poor 2025 season carries more weight in our model, which is why his value is declining. But the velo is there, and the track record is enticing, so we think teams will be interested, albeit not at a high price point.

 

Other notables:

Would the Diamondbacks sell?

With the news that Corbin Burnes is undergoing Tommy John surgery, Arizona's pitching staff is in trouble. As of this writing, they’ve bounced back a bit and kept their playoff odds intact (at around 44%), but now that Burnes is out for this year and most of next year, that could fall in a hurry. In that case, they might look to sell, so let’s look at their pieces. Note that all of the big names have surplus values in only the single digits, so none will bring a haul – and that fact may be significant as they pick a lane.

 

The rentals

Zac Gallen

• Field value: 14.2
• Salary owed: 8.2
• Surplus: 6.1

Gallen is having a rough year, which is unfortunate for both the Diamondbacks (should they decide to become sellers, as his trade value has nosedived) and for him, as it will negatively impact his upcoming free agency. His Baseball Savant page is entirely blue, indicating that all of his underlying metrics are poor, and offering little to interest other teams. He’s a buy-low candidate at this point, for a team that thinks they can turn him around.

 

Merrill Kelly

• Field value: 10.0
• Salary owed: 4.2
• Surplus: 5.8

Kelly is a pending free agent starter who would become available should Arizona sell, and, unlike Gallen, he’s having a solid year, and would attract multiple suitors. He’s no ace, but he’s reliable and playoff-tested.

 

Eugenio Suarez

• Field value: 13.3
• Salary owed: 9.1
• Surplus: 4.3

On the offensive side, Suarez would interest several contenders, including the Yankees and Astros, both of whom need pop from the right side. He’s hit 16 home runs so far this season, with advanced power metrics that suggest it’s sustainable, as he’s among the league leaders in expected slugging percentage. He’s not much of a fielder or baserunner, but the bat will play.

 

Josh Naylor

• Field value: 10.9
• Salary owed: 6.6
• Surplus: 4.3

A few contenders, like the Mariners and Red Sox, could use a first baseman, and lo and behold, Naylor would top the list of those available should the D’backs decide to sell. He has a 119 WRC+, doesn’t strike out much, and is among the league leaders in exit velocity. 

 

Possible QO candidates: Gallen, Suarez and Naylor

Arizona might want to hold onto either their former ace starter and/or two of their most prominent hitters at the deadline, as all are candidates for a qualifying offer. At present, we estimate Gallen’s 2026 field value at $19.5M; Suarez’s 2026 field value at $16.7M; and Naylor’s at $15.8M. Gallen is obviously a closer call, but for the two hitters, a QO for either would be an overpay (assuming the QO is set at $21M-ish). Still, it might be worth the risk for Arizona to get a draft pick on at least one of them if they walk, which means the D’backs are in a key position to affect the market – and it also means they’ll set the prices on these three higher than our estimates, because if they can get a better return than the value of the draft pick (which is at least $5M), it could be worth it to deal them.

 

Non-trade candidates

Mason Miller’s value has dropped a bit, to 29.6, as he’s been getting hit a little, proving that even dominant closer types have slumps… Brett Baty has been creeping up, to 13.9, as he may finally be adapting to major-league pitching… Michael Harris II has dropped down to 1.7, due to a bad combination of offensive struggles and a fixed long-term contract – his performance estimates longer-term are declining at a steeper slope than the money he’s owed, which means his contract might go negative if this keeps up… Speaking of negative value, Xander Bogaerts (-138.3) takes over the top (or is it bottom?) spot this week on our list of the most underwater contracts.