Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Prominent trade candidates

Jarren Duran

• Field value: 94.1
• Salary owed: 40
• Surplus: 54.1 (⬇️)

The Rafael Devers trade may have cooled off the rumors of a Duran trade, but then again, maybe not. The Red Sox, as of this writing, have a 31% chance of making the playoffs, which is not great. And if they do end up selling, trading Duran makes some sense, to clear a spot in the lineup for the likes of Roman Anthony (at some point, they also have to figure out where to play Masataka Yoshida, who will eventually come off the IL). Duran’s value has fallen this year, as his numbers have normalized – he’s still a high quality player, but not a superstar. Lots of teams will be interested in that, and his price tag is still high due to his 3.5 years of control.

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 7.9
• Salary owed: 10.1
• Surplus: -2.1 (⬇️)

Just when we thought Robert was getting hot, he leveled off. On the plus side, he’s hitting lefties very well (.273/.394/.473, for a 142 WRC+), and there are teams who are looking for RH help. On the other hand, that’s the short side of a platoon. Against righties (the majority of pitchers), he’s hitting a woeful .163/.232/.261, for a 37 WRC+. Yes, that’s 63% below league average. It’s difficult to imagine an acquiring team paying more than $10M for two months-plus of a short-side platoon player (which is what he’s owed on the remainder of his contract, assuming the $20M option years are declined). And that’s why reports are emerging that the White Sox would be willing to pay down some of that money to improve the return – otherwise it’s just a salary dump.

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 63.3
• Salary owed: 47.1
• Surplus: 16.2 (⬆️)

Alcantara has slowly chipped away at that awful ERA – it’s now down to 6.88. But despite some improvement, his underlying metrics are still unattractive (his Baseball Savant page is still heavily blue, including a .351 xwOBA allowed). Countering those ugly numbers is the fact that Alcantara still appears to be the most attractive starting pitcher on the market, with teams hoping that he’s turned a corner and is returning to former ace status. Given supply/demand trends that we typically see at the deadline, that’s encouraging for the Marlins’ hopes for a better return. On the other hand, there’s no need to force it – they have plenty of time to wait until his numbers improve, and could just decide to trade him in the offseason or next summer.

 

Other notables:

Ryan McMahon

• Field value: 23.7
• Salary owed: 38.4
• Surplus: -14.7

Think McMahon is a trade candidate? Have you looked at his Home/Away splits? My goodness. Outside of Coors this year, he’s hitting .180/.263/.320, for a WRC+ of 66. In other words, he’s 34% below average at all the parks in the league that are not Coors. Why would any team want that? And this is not new – for his career, he’s hitting .216/.302/.363, for a WRC+ of 82 – still 18% below league average. Couple that with his contract (he’s still owed over $38M over the next 2.5 years) and… well, I don’t understand why journalists keep putting his name out there as a trade candidate. It’s lazy.

 

Griffin Jax

• Field value: 37.5
• Salary owed: 10.7
• Surplus: 26.8

Are the Twins sellers? Their current playoff odds per Fangraphs have fallen to 29% – and the vibes are not great. If they do sell, demand will be high for setup man Jax, who has been consistently good for three years in a row (that’s a lifetime for most relievers, who are notoriously inconsistent). This year, Jax’s ERA is up (to 4.22, as of this writing), but most teams know that reliever ERA is super noisy. They care more about advanced metrics, and in that regard Jax is still very attractive. His Savant page is mostly red, and his .291 xwOBA allowed is under 3 for the fourth straight year. AND he has 2.5 years of control. AND he’s cheap – because he’s not a closer, his arbitration salary projections are on the low side. All of that explains why his value is high – the Twins could get a significant prospect package for him.

 

Kris Bubic

• Field value: 43
• Salary owed: 6.1
• Surplus: 36.8

Another possible AL Central team could turn into a seller. The Royals’ playoff odds have declined to 21%, so they might want to take the remainder of this year to reload. Bubic has 1.5 years of control left, they have a bad farm, and many needs on the MLB roster to complement superstar Bobby Witt, Jr. Bubic, meanwhile, is having a breakout year, quietly becoming one of the top starters in baseball. He’s a soft-tossing control guy, but very effective, with a low .287 xwOBA against. He’d be one of the top pitchers in demand at the deadline if KC made him available. Can they spare him? Maybe. They probably should if they can get a haul.

 

Shedding bad contracts

One interesting trend to watch is GMs becoming more proactive about shedding underwater contracts. They know the clock is ticking, and the longer they wait, the more they’ll be handcuffed holding onto them. So the Devers trade (and the Andres Gimenez trade this past offseason) were key indicators that it’s better to shed the contract sooner than later, while the player is in his prime and therefore attractive to other teams. After age 30, there’s not much interest, so they’re stuck with it.

The Red Sox, after trading Devers, would love to get rid of Trevor Story’s contract, but he’s clearly on the back side of his career, and it’s just too late for that one (his surplus value is at -60.3). It’s a similar story for guys like DJ LeMahieu (-19.6), Jeimer Candelario (-23.1), George Springer (-22.1), and Taijuan Walker (-20.8).

The other takeaway is that both Devers and Gimenez were signed to extensions while the player was in his 20s. This is normally a good thing, but you have to be careful. Other players who were less accomplished when they signed similar extensions – Jake Cronenworth (-2.9), Bryan Reynolds (-37.4), Michael Harris II (-7.1), Brandon Pfaadt (-21.3) – are now playing on underwater contracts. It’s a good bet that their front offices are likely interested in cutting bait with those types sooner than later, if they can find a taker.

 

The Mets' surplus

It feels like the Mets need to trade one of their young hitters – Mark Vientos (20.7), Brett Baty (12.1), Ronny Mauricio (7.3), and Luisangel Acuna (9.8) – for whatever they can get, as part of a possible package for a veteran, as they’re built to win now and can’t afford to be patient with these types of guys much longer. Vientos is out of options; Baty and Mauricio are in their last option years. GM David Stearns has a track record of trading players with this status.