Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Trade candidates

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 12.6
• Salary owed: 12.3
• Surplus: 0.3 (⬇️)

Robert continues to trend down, because as time goes on, the small sample size of this season’s underperformance becomes a bigger and bigger sample size. The longer this goes on, the worse it is for his trade value. At this point he’s a rental who’d barely bring back anything but salary relief for the White Sox.

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 68.3
• Salary owed: 49.6
• Surplus: 18.7 (➡️)

Alcantara is stabilizing a little – he hasn’t gotten any worse since last week, so that’s something.

 

Ryan Mountcastle

• Field value: 3.7
• Salary owed: 4.7
• Surplus: -1 (⬇️)

Like Robert, Mountcastle continues to decline as his small-sample performance weighs him down more and more. At this point he’s just a salary dump, with a non-tender year ahead of him.

 

Yandy Diaz

• Field value: 25.5
• Salary owed: 18.9
• Surplus: 6.7 (⬆️)

Diaz is creeping up a bit in value, and all the better since several teams could use a right-handed power bat. He’s a likely trade candidate for Tampa Bay, but note that he’s unlikely to be traded to Boston (who need a 1B badly) given their intra-division status. But there are other fits.

 

Other notables:

Let’s talk Pirates

The Pirates continue to wallow in sub-mediocrity, so it’s natural to speculate on their trade candidates. Given the lack of quality starting pitching in the market, trading their veteran pitchers makes sense. However, despite lots of buzz, the consensus in the industry is that Paul Skenes (126.4) will not be moved. He’d be the biggest name dealt at the deadline since Juan Soto, and his value has risen accordingly. But we’re not expecting it… Mitch Keller (25.1) would make sense for a lot of teams. He’d return at least a mid-Top 100 prospect plus one or two, as well as salary relief, so Pittsburgh should consider it… Rental starter Andrew Heaney (4.1) would bring back a minor prospect as he can at least give you some quality innings… On the relief side, Dennis Santana (4.7) has crept up in value after being a journeyman for a few years, as he’s now a very solid late-inning arm, while David Bednar (2.4) still has some work to do to restore his value to what it was… Unfortunately, all four of their rental position players are underwater, and unlikely to garner much interest: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (-0.1), Adam Frazier (-1), Andrew McCutchen (-2.4), and Tommy Pham (-2.7) may just ride it out.

 

Non-trade candidates

Don’t look now, but Cody Bellinger (-0.2) has gotten hot, enough so that our model now projects him to opt out after this year… Nolan Arenado’s value (-22.9) has declined given his lackluster offensive production – he’s hitting 7% below league average, with a weak .295 xwOBA, suggesting his age-related decline is real. Couple that with the clubhouse leadership he’s providing to a surprising team, along with his no-trade clause, and it’s clear he’s not going anywhere… There's a very small chance the A’s would consider moving Luis Severino (0.2) at the deadline, if for nothing else than salary relief, given that they overpaid him to come to West Sacramento. To his credit, he’s been respectable enough that he’s performing up to the level of his contract.