You may notice that, in our most recent update, some of the numbers changed a bit more significantly than usual. That’s because, with this one, we are weighting current-season stats more heavily than before. We’re at the point of the season where we’ve crossed a threshold, and the sample sizes are now just large enough to matter.

We know from experience that most teams spend the first two months of the year (roughly 33% of the season) seeing what they have, before they start to plan roster changes. Memorial Day is typically the milestone point. So in previous years, we were aligning with that schedule.

However, we noticed that this year is a little different. Two prominent managers were fired. One big trade has already occurred, in early May. Executives, like Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies, are already saying they’re having trade talks.

All of this means that we felt the need to move the needle up a little bit, and weight early-season metrics sooner than we have in the past. So this week, our numbers reflect that change.

 

Player impact

For players on shorter control timelines, the numbers won’t have moved that much, simply because the timeframe is shorter. But for players on longer-term contracts, or with multiple years of control, this weighting will have a slightly larger effect, because it will start to cascade through the ensuing years. You’ll see players with established track records take a bigger hit if they’re off to cold starts; at the opposite end, you’ll see breakout players jump up a bit more.

For example, Patrick Bailey is having such a poor offensive season that his surplus value changed from $43.6M in surplus value to $22.0M, as our model is cascading the effect of that weakness through his remaining 3.7 years of control. For another example, Jarren Duran is off to such a cold start that he’s fallen from the low 40s in preseason, to $24.3M recently, to $16.0M today.

Models are notoriously conservative, and for good reason – there’s a range of outcomes when projecting future performance, and a player’s track record is always a strong indicator of future performance. 

 

Market reality

However, real baseball teams who are in the thick of a season have to make tougher choices, for multiple reasons. Their GM may be on the hot seat. Their owner may be impatient. Their fans may be booing. They can’t always afford to wait it out, so they may make moves earlier than they rationally should. And if they do – as with the Bailey trade – they may be out of sync with models like ours.

So in short, you’ll find that, with this latest update, the numbers align more with 2026 actuals. We’re still weighting track record to a healthy degree (e.g., Duran’s not falling into DFA territory yet, even though he’s at sub-replacement level so far), this season’s numbers are now taking on more importance. 

Our mission is to track the market as closely as possible, so if it’s moving early, well, we will too.