Which players have the most surplus value in baseball? 

 As a reminder, surplus value is the amount of on-field value a player produces relative to his salary. Our GM-tier subscribers have access to the complete lists, year-round, via our Player Rankings pages. For the rest of you, here’s a sneak peek, as of our most recent update on 8/28.

You might notice two important points when viewing this list: 

• Most of these players are young (under 30)
• Most of these players are on team-friendly contracts

Those two factors, when combined, are a powerful combination.

 

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF, Cubs)

Age: 24

Years of control: 6.2

Field value estimate: 550.2

Salary remaining: 110.1

Surplus value: 440.1

 

PCA is the clear favorite for NL MVP this year, and it’s not close. When he was a prospect, he was viewed as a glove-first center fielder, one who could provide a baseline of value primarily with his defense. But once he unlocked his offensive potential, his performance (and value) have gone through the roof. Plus, he’s only 24, so he arguably hasn’t even hit his prime yet. And the Cubs have him under contract, cheaply, for six more years after this one. He’s so valuable that he’d be impossible to trade for anything close to a fair deal – no single team’s entire farm is worth this much. (Consider this number, then, on a more theoretical basis.)

 

2. Cristopher Sanchez (SP, Phillies)

Age: 29

Years of control: 7.2

Field value estimate: 427.1

Salary remaining: 151

Surplus value: 276.1

 

Sanchez has become, somewhat surprisingly, the ace of the Phillies’ staff – one that includes names like Wheeler, Nola, and Luzardo. He’s having a Cy Young-calibre year (if not for Jacob Misiorowski), and is super consistent, having produced 16.9 fWAR since the start of 2024. He’s under contract for another seven years after this one, on a very affordable contract.

 

3. Bobby Witt, Jr. (SS, Royals)

Age: 26

Years of control: 4.2

Field value estimate: 378.4

Salary remaining: 121.2

Surplus value: 257.2

 

Witt is having yet another great year, albeit quietly, considering he plays for a small-market non-contender. The way things are going, he looks like a lock to opt out of his contract the first chance he gets, after 2030, for free agency, as he’ll be in high demand and still (mostly) in his prime, so our model is projecting that scenario. Enjoy the bargain while you can, Royals fans.

 

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

Age: 27

Years of control: 8.2

Field value estimate: 412.7

Salary remaining: 256

Surplus value: 156.6

 

Remember when the Dodgers signed this guy, and everyone thought it was a huge risk to give him that much money over that many years? No one’s questioning it now. Yamamoto is the ace of a championship staff, and he’s still young, so we may not have even seen his best yet.

 

5. Chase Burns (SP, Reds)

Age: 23

Years of control: 7.2

Field value estimate: 237.5

Salary remaining: 103.1

Surplus value: 134.4

 

The former second-overall pick has come into his own this year, quietly becoming one of the top starters in the league. The Reds were smart to lock him up to a long, cheap contract just before his breakout, and will now reap the rewards of a bargain ace.

 

6. Geraldo Perdomo (SS, Diamondbacks)

Age: 26

Years of control: 4.2

Field value estimate: 169.6

Salary remaining: 47.8

Surplus value: 121.7

 

When the Diamondbacks extended Perdomo prior to the 2025 season, it turned a few heads. At that point, he was coming off a good-but-nowhere-near-great 2.1 fWAR season with Arizona. All he’s done since is make D’backs GM Mike Hazen and staff look like geniuses, as he broke out both offensively and defensively last year, and has (more moderately) continued that level of performance this year.

 

7. Julio Rodriguez (CF, Mariners)

Age: 25

Years of control: 11.2

Field value estimate: 371.9

Salary remaining: 250.5

Surplus value: 121.4

 

Despite having a strange, somewhat disappointing year (like most of the Mariners’ offense), Julio is still young, with superstar ability, on a very team-friendly contract. Note that there are complex clauses in his contract, which makes this one a bit tricky, but on its surface, it’s still a great deal for Seattle, as they figure to get his prime years at a bargain price.

 

8. Dylan Cease (SP, Blue Jays)

Age: 30

Years of control: 6.2

Field value estimate: 268.1

Salary remaining: 148.4

Surplus value: 119.6

 

When Cease signed his free-agent contract with the Blue Jays, many experts in the industry thought it was an overpay. Our model saw it as a great deal – on paper, by our calculations, he was worth a $33.6M AAV over seven years, and he got $26M per year. He’s taken his game to another level since then, and now the deal is even more team-friendly.

 

9. Jackson Chourio (OF, Brewers)

Age: 22

Years of control: 8.2

Field value estimate: 236.3

Salary remaining: 118.2

Surplus value: 118.1

 

As you can see by the numbers above, Chourio is worth about twice the amount he’s owed going forward. The Brewers, as they have been wont to do, signed him at the right time, as a teenager, and are now reaping the rewards. Amazingly, he won’t even hit his prime until a few years from now, so they’re getting his best years, and then some, at a bargain price.

 

10. Corbin Carroll (OF, Diamondbacks)

Age: 25

Years of control: 4.2

Field value estimate: 207.8

Salary remaining: 90.6

Surplus value: 117.1

 

The Diamondbacks are another team on this list that knows how to sign their young stars early (see Perdomo, above). Carroll is having another good-not-great year, but at age 25, figures to deliver even more value as he hits his prime in the upcoming years.

 

Honorable mentions: Kevin McGonigle, Jacob Misiorowski, Jackson Merrill, Cedanne Rafaela, Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt, Cam Schlittler, Junior Caminero, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Shohei Ohtani