Hey, why did that number change?

So you may have noticed that every now and then, a player’s valuation has changed on this site. You might be wondering, “Why?” or “Hey, does that mean I have to go back and redo that trade idea I had last week?” Or: “Is this arbitrary, or is there a good reason for it?”

All good questions. And yes, there are reasons for the changes. Four of them, typically:

  1. New data. Our formulas rely on publicly available services, such as projection systems and prospect rankings, to inform them. So when one of those services updates, we flow in those updates to the appropriate columns in our spreadsheets behind the scenes, which then show up as updates on the site.
  2. New player status information. This could be an injury, an injury worse than first reported, or a suspension, for example. It could also be a change of a playing time estimate, such as a when a fourth outfielder gets plugged in for regular duty because the starter got injured.
  3. Midseason performance updates. These will occur monthly starting in June, and factor in that player’s performance that year, pro-rated against his preseason projection.
  4. Transaction information. If a player gets traded, signed to a new contract, DFA’d, released, etc., we follow it closely, and adjust our numbers if necessary to reflect the new information. For example, if a trade occurs, and we find that our estimate was too high or too low, we will update the valuation after the fact so that it hews closer to reality going forward, because when the real-life market moves, it’s our most important data input. The more this happens, the smarter the model gets. However, we’ve learned to wait a day or two before doing this particular update, for transparency’s sake.

It’s important to keep in mind that we are not talent scouts, nor are we in the projection business. Our estimates should also not be considered predictions. We will be off sometimes. Real front offices are working with much more proprietary information than we have, and that information gap will cause some overs and unders here and there. That’s also why we publish a low, median, and high range. But one of our key goals is to make the model more accurate over time, and we believe that is occurring.

So when you see a number change, it’s for one of these reasons.

 

About the Author

John Bitzer

John Bitzer

Founder and editor of baseballtradevalues.com
4 Comments
    • John Bitzer

      Most likely, yes. Players typically peak on the value curve in their second or third year, provided they can overcome sophomore slumps and leagues adjusting to them.

      • Dylan Ciesielczyk

        Is his value then current right now or will it get higher before the winter meetings. Just wondering because a Brewers page I follow has fans create the offseason they want and this is the only good trade machine. I was looking to get Dom Smith in a trade and then saw Alonso’s value. I would offer hader straight up for Alonso but feel both sides would say no in real life.

        • John Bitzer

          All major leaguers are current right now, and I don’t foresee anything that would change Alonso’s value in particular. I mean, once in a while a freak injury occurs in the offseason, but that’s the only thing I could think of that would change it.

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