Real-life scorecard: Tracking our values

Now that the 2019 summer trade season is underway, we’ll keep track of each real-life trade and compare it to our values and see how they match up. We’ll plug them into our simulator and see if they’re “accepted,” “maybe accepted” or “rejected” based on how close the values are, and update this frequently throughout the month.

 

Our scorecard so far:

Total trades: 46

Accepted: 35

Maybe accepted: 5

Rejected: 6

Percentage of real trades qualified as “Accepted” by our model: 76.1%

Percentage of real trades qualified as either “Accepted” or “Maybe Accepted”: 86.9%

Total cumulative difference: 103.5

Average difference per trade (in $Ms): 2.25

 

Trade data

Twins get: Ian Miller (0.1)

Mariners get: Cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

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Braves get: John Ryan Murphy (1.4)

Diamondbacks get: Cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

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Rays get: Rocky Gale (0.1)

Dodgers get: Cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

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Astros get: Aaron Sanchez (2.8), Joe Biagini (2.0) and Cal Stevenson (2.0); total: 6.8

Blue Jays get: Derek Fisher (7.8)

Difference: 1.0

Result: Accepted

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Astros get: Zack Greinke (3.0) and $24M; total: 27.0

Diamondbacks get: J.B. Bukauskas (11.4), Corbin Martin (11.3), Seth Beer (7.9), Josh Rojas (1.8); total: 32.4

Difference: 5.4

Result: Maybe Accepted

Once we straightened out Greinke’s salary, we realized this one was in the ballpark at a reasonable overpay.

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Angels get: Max Stassi (1.6)

Astros get: Raider Uceta (0.2) and Rainier Rivas (0.2); total: 0.4

Difference: 1.2

Result: Accepted

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Giants get: Scooter Gennett (-0.6) and cash (undisclosed)

Reds get: PTBNL

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

Let’s say the Reds cover half of the $3.2M Gennett is still owed. That $1.6M would get them a pack a minor pitching prospect worth $1.0. We suspect this may turn out to be the case.

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Padres get: Carl Edwards, Jr. (-0.2) and cash (0.5); total: 0.3

Cubs get: Brad Wieck (0.1)

Difference: 0.2

Result: Accepted

This one looks spot-on: a swap of two struggling, marginal relievers.

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Dodgers get: Khristopher Negron (0.1)

Mariners get: Daniel Castro (0.1)

Difference: 0

Result: Accepted

A swap of marginal utility players, each of whom is out of options and barely makes it into positive value.

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Rays get: Trevor Richards (26.9) and Nick Anderson (1.0); total: 27.9

Marlins get: Jesus Sanchez (31.5) and Ryne Stanek (1.4); total: 32.9

Difference: 5.0

Result: Maybe accepted.

Sanchez’s value was adjusted down for performance, and Stanek will be out of options next year, both of which lessened their value to the Rays.

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Dodgers get: Adam Kolarek (1.3)

Rays get: Niko Hulsizer (0.3)

Difference: 1.0

Result: Accepted

This one was mostly about the Rays clearing roster space.

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Cardinals get: Tony Cingrani (-1.3) and Jeffry Abreu (0.1); total: 1.2

Dodgers get: Jedd Gyorko (-3.8), IFA $ (unknown) and cash (unknown)

Difference: 0

Result: Accepted

Given the financial aspects of this deal, we’re going to assume it’s fair — possibly even to the dollar.

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Twins get: Sam Dyson (1.5)

Giants get: Prelander Berroa (1.1), Jaylin Davis (0.7) and Kai-Wei Teng (1.1); total: 2.9

Difference: 1.4

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13552/

We had a feeling Dyson would go a tick higher than his value, but this is within our acceptance range.

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Cubs get: Nicholas Castellanos (1.9) and 0.5 cash; total: 2.4

Tigers get: Paul Richan (1.9) and Alex Lange (0.7); total: 2.6

Difference: 0.2

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13550/

This was one was almost exact, to the dollar.

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Braves get: Shane Greene (6.7)

Tigers get: Joey Wentz (4.4), Travis Demeritte (0.8); total: 5.2

Difference: 1.5

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13546/

This one was fair. Reports that Tigers GM Al Avila was asking for Nats SS prospect Carter Kieboom (whose value is in the 70s) appeared absurd when compared to this actual return. Nice to see it all worked out.

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Braves get: Mark Melancon (-16.5)

Giants get: Tristan Beck (2.5), Dan Winkler (1.2); total: 3.7

Difference: 20.2

Result: Rejected

This was one of the most puzzling outliers of trade deadline day. We think the Braves agreed to this because they were so desperate for quality relief help, and clearly paying with monetary capital instead of prospect capital was more acceptable to their strategy.

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Marlins get: Jazz Chisholm (23.0)

Diamondbacks get: Zac Gallen (15.1)

Difference: 7.9

Result: Rejected

This one is not as far apart as it first seems — Chisholm’s stock has been dropping while Gallen’s stock has been rising, and if you go by Baseball America ratings, they’re very close. But for our model, they’re still a bit farther apart than they should be.

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Nationals get: Hunter Strickland (-0.4)

Mariners get: Aaron Fletcher (1.1)

Difference: 1.5

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13538/

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Athletics get: Tanner Roark (3.6) and cash (2.1); total: 5.7

Reds get: Jameson Hannah (6.1)

Difference: 0.4

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13566/#comment-2050

This one was pretty spot-on

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Giants get: Mauricio Dubon (5.8)

Brewers get: Ray Black (1.0), Drew Pomeranz (-0.5); total: 0.5

Difference: 5.3

Result: Rejected

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13530/

This one can be explained by Dubon losing stock due to poor performance (and we may not have discounted him enough for that) coupled with the Brewers needing to strengthen their bullpen.

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Nationals get: Roenis Elias (0.3)

Mariners get: Taylor Guilbeau (0.5), Elvis Alvarado (0.1); total: 0.6

Difference: 0.3

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13529/

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Nationals get: Daniel Hudson (2.7)

Blue Jays get: Kyle Johnston (0.5)

Difference: 2.2

Result: Maybe accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13523/

Once again, the Blue Jays zagged, targeting a prospect they seemed to like more than others.

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Astros get: Martin Maldonado (1.8)

Cubs get: Tony Kemp (2.9)

Difference: 1.1

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13505/

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Rangers get: Nate Jones (-2) and cash (2); total: 0

White Sox get: Joe Jarneski (0.1) and Ray Castro (0.1); total: 0.2

Difference: 0.2

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13504/

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Rays get: Jesus Aguilar (6.5)

Brewers get: Jake Faria (5.1)

Difference: 1.4

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13501/

The values here were close enough to be within our margin of error.

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Indians get: Franmil Reyes (32.4), Logan Allen (14.7), Yasiel Puig (6.5), Scott Moss (0.4), Victor Nova (1.5)

Total received: 55.5; total given up: 34.4; difference: +21.1

Padres get: Taylor Trammell (50.2)

Total received: 50.2; total given up: 48.6; difference: +1.2

Reds get: Trevor Bauer (34.4)

Total received: 34.4; total given up: 56.7; difference: -22.3

Result: Rejected

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13458/

The Padres’ side of this deal looks square. Obviously the gap between the Reds and Indians is huge, and does not fit our model. We could be low on Bauer, but based on all other trades we’ve seen, we think this one is an anomaly. The Reds also overpaid for Sonny Gray in the offseason, and they have said publicly that they have challenges signing free agent pitchers to play in their park, so they would use the trade market to acquire good arms. That’s what they did here. So we think it’s more of a unique situation of a Reds overpay.

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Braves get: Chris Martin (1.2)

Rangers get: Kolby Allard (3.0)

Difference: 1.8

Result: Maybe Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13411/

We hadn’t had a chance to update Chris Martin’s numbers prior to the trade; had we done so, he would have been at 1.6, which is a bit closer, and would have changed this to “Accepted.” But we’re okay this one — first overpay for a reliever we’ve seen.

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Cubs get: David Phelps (0.6) and cash (unknown)

Blue Jays get: Thomas Hatch (0.6)

Difference: 0

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13351/

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Phillies get: Jason Vargas (-1.6) and $2.4M

Mets get: Austin Bossart (0.1)

Difference: -.7

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13207/

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Brewers get: Jordan Lyles (0.8)

Pirates get: Cody Ponce (0.3)

Difference: 0.5

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13181/

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Indians get: Hunter Wood (1.9) and Christian Arroyo (0.4)

Rays get: Ruben Cardenas (1.5) and $0.25M IFA money

Difference: 0.6

Result: Rejected

We consider this trade rejected in our model because we originally had Wood and Arroyo much higher, and failed to consider their upcoming out of options status as a significant factor. The Rays value flexibility, so they jettisoned both largely for that reason, it seems. Cardenas also wasn’t on our radar, as none of the major prospect evaluators had him listed, but he’s been raking in the lower minors, so we’ll apply our lowest prospect valuation for hitters and adjust up a little for performance.

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Mets get: Marcus Stroman (18.1)

Blue Jays get: Simeon Woods-Richardson (7.1) and Anthony Kay (9.8)

Difference: 1.2

Result: Rejected

Update: Our original numbers were farther off than this when the trade was first announced. We found an error and have since corrected it, but we won’t take credit for the adjustment.

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Rays get: Eric Sogard (1.8)

Blue Jays get: 2 PTBNLs (unknown)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13021/#comment-1813

We’ll assume this one is fair for now until we hear otherwise.

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Rangers get: Ian Gibaut (1.5)

Rays get: PTBNL

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-13033/

We’ll assume this one is fair for now, since trades with players whose values are under 2 generally are.

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Twins get: Sergio Romo (2.2), Chris Vallimont (1.1), PTBNL

Marlins get: Lewin Diaz (2.4)

Difference: 0.9 (so far)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12934/

Lewin Diaz is rated relatively highly by Baseball America. If we just used their value, it would translate to an 8.0. But we use a consensus, and none of the other outlets have Diaz that high. Further, he’s a Rule 5 risk, so we also discounted him for that. All that said, this trade comes reasonably close to our estimates, and is well within our margin of error.

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A’s get: Jake Diekman (2.6)

Royals get: Dairon Blanco (0.8) and Ismael Aquino (0.1)

Difference: 1.7

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12893/

We think we overvalued Diekman a touch here — that may be because a month has passed since we did our midseason update, so his value might have declined due to the shorter timeframe. We also think we undervalued Aquino a bit. But this one still managed to pass our Acceptance test, as it’s within our margin-of-error range.

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Phillies get: Jose Pirela (0.4)

Padres get: cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12863/

As with others like this, we’re going to assume this one nets out pretty close to even.

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Cubs get: Derek Holland (-3.5), cash (undisclosed)

Giants get: cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12736/

We’re just going to assume this one nets out closely, given speculation that the Giants covered the remaining salary and the Cubs likely agreed to pay next year’s buyout.

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Rangers get: Shane Carle (0.5)

Braves get: cash (undisclosed)

Difference: 0 (assumed)

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12600/

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Dodgers get: Tyler White (1.7)

Astros get: Andre Scrubb (1.3)

Difference: 0.4

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12552/

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Mariners get: Magill (0.1)

Twins get: Cash (undisclosed)

Assumed difference: 0

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-12104/

Yes, we log even the minor trades!

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Yankees get: Gore (1.5)

Royals get: Cash (undisclosed)

Assumed difference: 0.5

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-11774/

Typically, “cash considerations” do not exceed $1M, so we’re going to assume the cash is $1M or less here. Anything between 0 and 1 is within our margin of error, so this one is accepted.

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Blue Jays get: Font (0.6)

Royals get: Cash (undisclosed)

Assumed difference: 0

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-11773/

Typically, “cash considerations” do not exceed $1M, so we’re going to assume the cash is $1M or less here, and probably close to 0.6. Anything between 0 and 1 is within our margin of error, so this one is accepted.

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Cubs get: Maldonado (4)

Royals get: Montgomery (0)

Difference: 4

Result: Maybe accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-11581/

We’re a little bit off on this one, mostly due to the fact that we modeled Montgomery as a reliever (given his usage), only to find that KC wants to convert him back to a starter, which generally increases a pitcher’s value. Technically, it’s not a miss, since the values fall just within our margin for error, but we’re kicking ourselves a little anyway.

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Athletics get: Bailey (1.5)

Royals get: Merrell (1.4)

Difference: 0.1

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-11464/

We’re pretty spot-on with this one. We could nitpick it even further if we considered that we updated Bailey’s value on July 1, but he was traded on July 13, so those 12 days may have eroded .1 of value, but who’s counting?

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Red Sox get: Cashner (-2.7), cash (estimate: 4); total value: 1.3

Orioles get: two lottery tickets (0.3); total value: 0.3

Assumed difference: 1.0

Result: Accepted

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-11426/

Note that this one is a bit tricky since we hadn’t entered those two 17-year-olds in our system, so we’re using these other two lottery tickets as a proxy. We’re off by 1, but that’s well within our margin of error.

 

 

 

About the Author

John Bitzer

John Bitzer

Founder and editor of baseballtradevalues.com