Padres & Red Sox
Submitted by: JHB
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Bleis | 19 | Minors | OF | 29.1 | 23.3 | 29.1 | 34.9 | |||||
| Luis Perales | 20 | Minors | SP | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | |||||
| Alex Verdugo | 28 | Majors | OF | Low | 2 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Total Value:
38.9
Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Groome | 25 | Minors | SP | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.4 | |||||
| Juan Soto | 25 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 55.9 | 33 | 22.9 | 18.3 | 22.9 | 27.5 |
Total Value:
24.9
Comments
10
This is based on Jim Bowden's assessment that the Red Sox would have to offer Verdugo, Houck, Bleis, and Perales for Soto. That's rejected by the trade validator. By holding back Houck and adding Jay Groome--a past Red Sox draftee with some lifestyle and injury issues who was tutored by Chris Sale during his better MiLB seasons--this trade becomes a major overpay for the Red Sox for Soto's walk year.
From Bostons point of view it’s probably, he’s definitely worth this value and probably more, and that he’s healthy with no problems. But from an acquiring team’s perspective it’s, he hasn’t played since May ‘23 and has less then 200 AB’s in A ball, we need to see him play and need some current stats before considering him at this value (or possibly more) before we can be comfortable because he’s the biggest part of the return. I think Bleis, at best, is a deadline deal player.
I believe that Bleis is still ranked 72nd in MLB by Baseball America. MLB dot com has him 5th on the Red Sox, with 4th place Kyle Teel ranking 82nd, suggesting that he might be among the top couple dozen prospects over 100th. The 4th-best prospect on an average team--with a high deviation of projection (could become a home-grown superstar; could never come back from surgery)--is a valuable asset. I trust the BTV value.
I trust the BTV Value as well
Cool! Thanks! Per BTV, six cheap years of Bleis alone is worth more than the rest of Soto's contract.
I think if Soto reaches free agency the Red Sox will be the team that signs him. I’d love to trade for him and sign him to an extension but I think the Red Sox would only be bidding against themselves. Ultimately, I think the Red Sox will/should wait. I don’t think this offer even comes close to acquiring Soto
Hey, dajuba! Why do you think a "Major overpay" wouldn't be enough?
Outfielder Miguel Bleis underwent left shoulder subluxation surgery. Bleis was placed on the injured list at Single-A Salem after straining his shoulder on a swing May 31 and has not played since. He had dealt with shoulder issues a couple times this past season with the latest instance becoming too severe to play through. How he’s climbed to a value of 29.1 is beyond me but I severely doubt any GM would even consider trading for him in a deal until he plays in ‘24 and proves himself healthy (especially at this value).
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
This is easy - the Red Sox don't need lefty hitting OFs who can't field. The team is married to Devers and Casas who already serve that role. The Sox need RH hitters who can play defense. There is no trade for Soto that makes sense for the Red Sox. They need the $ it would take to extend him to spend on starting pitching.
Well, traderjack, thanks for the response. My thoughts: 1) Juan Soto was almost exactly an average LF defensively in 2023. His UZR of -1.6 runs per 150 games was just over .01 runs per game. That's a miniscule difference from MLB average. 2) Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Wade Boggs, and David Ortiz all did OK as LHH in Fenway Park. Fred Lynn, another Red Sox LHH, was revealed to be mortal as soon as he left Fenway. I bet Soto would do fine, much better than in PETCO. 3) The Red Sox are going to blow away the luxury tax cap in 2024/25 and drain their farm system going for a win. They can afford this trade.