Cubs & Yankees
Submitted by: andrewdifalco
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt | 27 | Majors | RHRP | SP | Medium | 4.8 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 7.2 | 9 | 10.9 |
Total Value:
9
Yankees
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 27 | Majors | OF | 1B | Low | 0.6 | 13 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Julian Merryweather | 31 | Majors | RHRP | Medium | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Cash | 8 |
Total Value:
8.6
Comments
4Yankees get a good defensive outfielder who should be average offensively (could take advantage of the short porch) and the cubs pay the remainder of his salary and a reliever with incredible stuff+. The cubs get a starter for the future with tons of control who’s been very good recently and aids them in their plans to win In the near future
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
People might be low on Schmidt because his poor ERA, but look at his peripherals (and his overall production recently). He’s clearly a quality big league arm
This isn't even close to value for the Cubs. Bellinger is going to bring back a top-5 prospect due his offense coming back and this current value only reflects his defensive value. Merryweather has an ERA around 1.00 in his last 11 games. Whatever was his issues previously, he has seemed to overcome them. He may very well be a trade chip, but won't come cheap. Regarding Schmidt, his increasing hard hit rate is concerning, with his ceiling looking like a reliever/back-end starter-inning eater. At age 27, there doesn't seem to be any projection left and likely by the end of this season even this site will probably put him in a 1-2 win median value. A good opener for the Yankees is to offer S.Jones and go from there, if they are serious about wanting Bellinger.
Bellinger has a 122 wRC+ this year. This is with heavily performing his expected stats (.353 wOBA to .310 xwOBA). Nearly every projection site has him finishing with a 100 wRC+ down the stretch, with the most generous having him at 108. Merryweather has been solid, but again projections do not think its sustainable. On top of that, reliever is an extremely volatile position where there is little consistency and he has a poor track record, heavily reducing his value. He might be marginally more expensive than hes currently at, but the value is pretty reasonable Schmidt gets hit hard, but barrel rate is something not controlled much by a pitcher (I can link a study). Also, 27 years old for a pitcher is not even remotely close to old and hes improved significantly every single week since breaking into the major leagues. Since April 28th, Schmidt has made 8 starts posting a 3.43 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 3.82 pCRA (4.57 league average), 30% CSW (28.3% league average), and .290 xwOBA (.327 league average). He is clearly a true major league starter and is consistently improving. He also has 4 more years of control.