Dodgers & Phillies & Royals
Submitted by: philliescts
Dodgers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 28 | Majors | SP | Very low | 2 | 95.7 | 31 | 64.7 | 58.2 | 71.2 | 84.1 | |
| Jean Segura | 31 | Majors | SS | High | 2 | 32.1 | 31.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Total Value:
71.5
Phillies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 25 | Majors | OF | 1B | Medium | 2 | 3.1 | 20.1 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dustin May | 23 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 76 | 31.9 | 44.1 | 35.2 | 44.1 | 52.9 | |
| Whit Merrifield | 32 | Majors | 2B | OF | Medium | 2 | 27.1 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 16.7 |
| Adalberto Mondesi | 25 | Majors | SS | Medium | 2 | 16.9 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | |
| Josh Staumont | 27 | Majors | RHRP | Medium | 4 | 17.5 | 7 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 12.6 |
Total Value:
75.3
Royals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Ferguson | 24 | Majors | LHRP | SP | Medium | 3.5 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 7 |
| Yhoswar Garcia | Minors | OF | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.6 | ||||||
| Andy Pages | Minors | OF | 20.3 | 16.2 | 20.3 | 24.4 |
Total Value:
31.2
Comments
6This would depend a lot on how the playoffs shake out, and even then the dodgers are more likely to dive into free agency than trade their assets, but lets pretend. In Nola and Segura the dodgers would acquire a front of the rotation starter on very reasonable contract and a versatile infielder who excels at making contact. Between injuries, contracts and legal issues there are many question marks in their rotation. This answers one on them and leaves money to be aggressive on other answers. In Segura they would get a .300 hitter capable of playing 3rd and 2nd at a high level and fill in at SS if need be. They could match up with Segura to maximize his bat, something the Phillies couldn't. May is out til mid 2022, but still showed signs of a top pitcher. Its a question about how her comes back from the surgery, but the Phillies need to start taking gambles. At his press conference Dombroski said the Phillies need to address the leadoff positions (Whit), CF and offensive help for Harper (Bellinger), SS (Mondesi), and closer (Staumont). Bellinger had a real rough season and it would be a risk especially with his arb raise, but again the Phillies need to take risks. Mondesi is another risk. He is the Buxton of SS. Great talent, power and speed combo, but oft injured. What this does for the Royals is allow them the slide Nicky Lopez over to 2nd and open SS for Bobby Whit and clear a little bit of money so they could make a run at Kris Bryant. In addition they would get a stud in Pages, a 2nd base prospect in Leonard (meant for him in the trade not the 27 yr old Reks), a defensive wizard in Garcia, and a jack of all trades lefty in Ferguson.
Historically LAD has bet on full recovery from TJS -- Kahnle, Nelson, college prospects like Buehler, They won't trade May nor Ferguson in 2022 because P/R will constraint FA splurges. Bellinger's play-off performances will affect his status. I think LAD would want Segura for 2B platoon fit since Lux seems capable in LF. The 16m aav salary might make them shop first.
I think a lot is going to be contingent of how the playoffs play out. If the Dodgers win the WS with the current makeup and Bellinger has a decent showing, I think they will hold on to guys like May and Ferguson, let them rehab and compete with what they have. If they get knocked out, especially by the Giants, and Bellinger's play forces them to start a more offensive player, I think they would be very aggressive and obtain a player like Nola for their rotation. May most likely will not be a factor for them in 2022 (he may be back mid-season, but they can't rely on his performance). Nola would give them an established piece who can help them win now and they might see his peripherals and think they can get more out of him than the phillies can.
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I don't love it for the Phillies. Phillies can't afford to give up Nola, even if it seems he often comes up short. May is really interesting but he's injured. Swapping Jean for Whit comes out sort of even depending on what you look at, but essentially swaps the vacancy in the lead-off spot with the two-hole. Bellinger is strange. He might bounce back to a .340 OBP/25HR hitter. He was supposed to bounce back this year. I hope DD doesn't acquire a question mark for his middle of the order offensive help. Plus Belli was injured. The Phillies can buy a player this offseason that is better than Mondesi on both sides, who was also injured. The Phillies probably try really hard to get Buxton to fill the CF, leadoff, and offensive help and then sign or trade for any SS. Or just sign Marte for CF and leadoff, who's salary would likely be close to arbitration Belli. I think this trade makes the Phillies worse at SP, around even at 2B, worse at CF (Odubel was better), and better at SS but that's not saying much, and most of the kids they acquire have injury history. I do like the idea of somehow swapping Jean for Whit where the Phils signed Marte with the $$ saved from shedding Jean. Whit, Marte, Harper, Rhys, JT seems alright. Very thoughtful trade though. It was fun to consider.
Also I know that a ton of Phillies fans are on the Marte bandwagon because he is a CF and leadoff hitter and pencils in very nicely with the team but he is 33 years old and relies on his legs. His sprint speed metrics have been steady but are trending a bit down. From 2015-2020 he was in the top 10% of all of baseball (89-98 potential), this past year was 83%. He also has habitually out preformed his xBA, I suspect due to his plus speed. He is a top player and will most likely get a 3 year deal close to 18 mil AAV, but I suspect you only get one good year out of him because foot speed and bat speed are the first thing to go for an aging player.
In order to rework the Phillies rosters, they need to take chances. Bellinger is a bounce back candidate who played with injuries all year, Buxton and Mondesi are world class talents with injury histories, May and Glasnow (other pitcher I hypothesized a trade for) are coming off tommy john and most likely won't be available in 2022. The only reason any of those players are potential targets would be the question marks associated with them. The phillies as a system have a dearth of talent and have to look at ways to increase their talent pool. If DD could take a SP and an every day player and turn that into a SP, potential CP, and three every day regulars without adding substantial payroll, I would do it. Also last years results do not lead to next years success. The best player on the phillies team in 2020 was probably Didi. He played every game and hit .284/.339/.488. In 2021 he was probably the worst. I'm not saying Segura would do the same but Whit is much more consistent, versatile, and reliable (played in every game from 2019-2021). He like Segura does not walk or strikeout and is more of traditional 2 hole hitter than leadoff, but could if there were no other option.