Mariners & Rays
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Adam | 32 | Majors | RP | High | 4 | 18.6 | 14.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | |
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 4 | 80.3 | 42.8 | 37.5 | 30 | 37.5 | 45 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | 30 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 41.9 | 25 | 16.9 | 13.6 | 16.9 | 20.3 |
Total Value:
58.8
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Adcock | 25 | Majors | RP | 7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | ||
| Michael Arroyo | Minors | SS | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 | ||||||
| Jonatan Clase | 21 | Minors | OF | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.6 | |||||
| Harry Ford | 20 | Minors | C | 18.5 | 14.8 | 18.5 | 22.3 | |||||
| Bryan Woo | 23 | Majors | SP | 7 | 49.7 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 20.1 | 25.1 | 30.1 |
Total Value:
61.8
Comments
9
Woo's statcast numbers backup his success, despite never playing in AAA. I see him headlining a move with the Rays.
I like the thought but I don’t like some of the prospects coming back to the Rays: *Adcock - He’s intriguing for sure, but I don’t like the mariners rushing him to the Show before he was ready. Now his clock is ticking after only 28.2 IP in the minors (skipping AAA entirely) and 15 IP in the Majors. I wouldn’t say he failed in the Show, but I also feel pretty confident that if traded to the Rays, he would start next year in AA (maybe AAA) and he might spend the whole year there. Trading for a young reliever whose clock started too early isn’t ideal in my opinion, but he’s super cheap, so I guess I don’t care too much. *Clase - This guy might be the next great disagreement between me and Shaq, but I see nothing to get excited here. He grades average to poor in everything but speed. He spent most of the year in AA in 2023 and couldn’t crack .800 OPS (he barely cracked .700). His trade value suggests he is a pretty sure bet to be an everyday player (as these bets go), and I just don’t see it. Is he better than H.Hernandez? Misner? Auer? Etc.. Hard pass for me. *Arroyo - Very young player who might have an above average bat, but he’s also a non-SS infielder, which the Rays have plenty of, both now and in a few years when Arroyo is ready. I don’t mind him in the trade, but if you took him and Clase out of the deal, you can also take Glas out of the deal. Glas should net the Rays a helluva lot better return than Clase and Arroyo.
I like Adcock a lot. Can hit tiple digits, and didn't walk anyone in 15 innings despite being nowhere near MLB ready (and having a better xFIP than everyone in our pen outside Fairbanks and Stephenson, one of whom is about to get $50MM on the FA market.) He's already had his TJ surgery, so he's unlikely to need one anytime soon. Also, his clock starting means nothing, since you don't accumulate time in the minor leagues. Adcock has 2 options. He can spend the next 2 years in AAA and still have 6 years service time when he's recalled. Clase: A 117 wRC+ in A last year. This year, they started him in A+, but only gave him 100 PA there because he dominated the league by hitting 7 HR in 21 games (AS A 20 YEAR OLD). He's a switch hitter with 80 grade speed, hit 20 HR this year, was 79 of 94 SB. He's what Brujan was 3 years ago, but Brujan had $40MM in trade value, while Clase has $8MM. I would do Glasnow for Clase straight up. I'm thinking switch hitters with average power and the fastest guy in baseball shouldn't have a BABIP below .300. You can take Arroyo out. I don't know much about him. If you don't like him, then I believe you. He had a nice post season, and a pretty good year for an 18 year old. We need outfielders in the system, but maybe Arroyo isn't the right one.
LOL... I just knew you were going to be a Clase lover. Allow me a rebuttal. Yes, he started the year hot, and those things happen, but he cooled off quite a bit once he got the promotion to AA (and turned 21 years old). His 94 wRC+ in 489 PAs in AA means more to me than his 203 wRC+ in 106 PAs in A+. One represents a couple of hot weeks and the other represents the season. He's young, but at 21 years old in AA he isn't super young for his level. He's not Caminero, who destroyed multiple levels of competition at age 19. When a prospect doesn't have any above average tools AND the prospect doesn't dominant the Minors, I assume the worst. That's what I see with Clase. Fangraphs gives this guy a 30/35 hit tool and a 40/45 game power, while MLB gives him a 50 hit tool and a 45 power tool. Neither see him as anything but average in the field, and MLB grades his arm strength at 40 grade. So he's at best an average bat and below average fielder who can run like the wind. That's nice I guess, but is it better than Misner or Auer who each have above average power grades and above average fielding tools (ie: ideal 4th outfielders), or H.Hernandez who supposedly has an even better bat but has similar fielding issues to Clase? I don't know the answer of course, but I don't think any of them are sure fire studs at the next level and worthy of trading Glasnow. Anyway, give the Rays Ford/Woo for Aroz/Adam, and I think both teams should be happy. The Rays can then swap Glasnow in a separate trade for some high end pitching talent. Guys like Brown (Cubs), Hurt/Kopp/Frasso (Dodgers), Schwellenbach/Murphy (Braves), etc...
Mariners fan here, saw this proposal and figured I'd give the Seattle spin. Woo's forearm thing was probably a case of the phantom IL. He has a fairly recent Tommy John in his history so they needed to pump the brakes for a couple weeks. He probably needs to be on an innings count again next year, but I like him a little more than Bryce Miller long term. Clase is interesting, but he probably shouldn't carry a ton of weight in an offer like this. It's not outlandish to see the potential, but there is a lot of downside. Personally, I'm a big fan of Michael Arroyo. If I'm dealing with the Mariners, I am trying to capitalize on the their desperation by including him as the 2nd or 3rd piece in a deal. I'd hit the No button on both Woo and Ford for Arozarena and Adam. I think if there is a deal, it would probably be Miller/Woo plus Emerson Hancock and maybe Tyler Locklear for Arozarena. Maybe including Glasnow to get Ford makes it work for Seattle, but I probably don't do that if I'm Tampa. I like the match though and this trade is a good thought.
Yeah, I can see an Aroz trade to Seattle for pitching too. It makes sense for both clubs. Since you're a Mariners fan, what are your thoughts overall on a Glasnow trade to Seattle? While teams can never have enough high end pitching, adding Glasnow to Seattle's team seems more like a luxury than a necessity. I feel like teams like the Dodgers are going to be more likely to pay up for Glasnow because of their need for high end pitching.
The Mariners won't trade for Glasnow. There are too many teams that need pitching more and are more inclined to pay for one year of it. The only way it happens is part of a bigger deal in which they would be moving two pitchers and some high-end prospects. And those are very rare. I'd guess he ends up with the Dodgers or Cubs, maybe the Braves.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I like Woo a lot. But his IL stint this year for forearm inflammation makes me nervous. That said, the Rays do need to explore trades for Glas, Randy, and Adam within the next year. Not sure I see all three moved during this offseason or in the same trade, but the Rays need to replenish depth to keep the farm churning - especially the upper level SP depth.
Forearms should make us nervous, but it was the minimum stay. I don't see a reason to be too concerned. We don't have very much talent in the upper minors outside of a 19 year old that's never played in AAA and Mead who was very meh this year. For that reason, if they trade one of Randy, Glas, BLowe, or Yandy, I want all of them traded. If any one of them get injured, it will be very tough to fill their spot internally.