Rays & Diamondbacks & Mariners
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konnor Pilkington | 26 | Majors | SP | LRP | Medium | 5 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| Ty Adcock | 25 | Majors | RP | 6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | ||
| Harry Ford | 20 | Minors | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 | 14.8 | 18.5 | 22.3 | ||
| Bryan Woo | 23 | Majors | SP | 6 | 47.2 | 22.6 | 24.6 | 19.7 | 24.6 | 29.5 | ||
| Druw Jones | 20 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 16.4 | 20.5 | 24.6 |
Total Value:
69.4
Diamondbacks
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 30 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 38.1 | 25 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 15.8 | |
| Colin Poche | 30 | Majors | RP | Low | 2 | 16.7 | 5.3 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 |
Total Value:
24.5
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 81.3 | 42.8 | 38.6 | 30.9 | 38.6 | 46.3 | |
| Jason Adam | 32 | Majors | RP | High | 3 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
Total Value:
43.2
Comments
3
Pilkington was just a placeholder to get the trade to go through. He sucks, don't want him. Just had to even it up. I think Poche is VASTLY overrated in this exercise, so the DBs aren't really overpaying in my opinion. There's a lot of relievers vastly overvalued here. Pilkington was outrighted. He has no value. I hope there's an update coming soon, because Kevin Kelly was left off the Rays postseason roster due to being terrible down the stretch. There's no way he has 15MM in value. Beeks is probably getting non-tendered. Cole Sulser was claimed off waivers and probably gets non-tendered, but he has $5MM in value here. Relievers have very little value unless they are premier, and none of these mentioned are close to premiere.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I get what you're saying about relievers and their trade value, but I also know a lot of good teams struggle to field good Pens each year and the salary cost of free agent relievers surprises me every year. You may not think much of Poche, and lord knows I don't think much of him, but he did have a good year and he's still cheap. If he's put on the market, and I think he should be, he might just command an $11MM trade value. The return wouldn't be high upside prospects of course, but more fully valued AAA and ML players. I also don't agree with you on Kelly. I don't see him being terrible down the stretch, whether you use August 1st or September 1st as your starting point, and I don't think you can make any assumptions about the reasons for leaving Kelly off the post-season roster. The Rays were facing a short 3 game series and were starting Glas and Eflin in games 1 and 2, who were expected to pitch deep and well. The Rays also didn't have many of their best and most consistent bats, and elected to field a post-reason roster heavy on rookie position players they had no confidence in. I think they thought they needed maximum flexibility with pinch hitters. Maybe Kelly isn't one of the Rays top 3-4 relievers, but he's a solid piece in a good Pen (and he has 5 years of control). As for this trade, I like it as a fan of the Rays, but I don't think we see it in real life. Rays would never trade 4 players for 4 players (2 of whom are prospects), nor will they trade Glas and Aroz in the same deal. I also think the consistent hair cuts to Glasnow's trade value are getting silly. Unless he's lost his QO draft pick compensation with the end of the 2023 season, there's no reason to keep cutting his value. Not when comparable pitchers are signing short term deals of $43MM AAV and the only other Ace available via trade (Burnes) will cost nearly 3X the trade value now ($32MM to $13.1MM) while having the same tax cost ($15MM). It's also not like free agency is going to offer much - Snell and Nola will likely get $200MM deals and they both represent risky propositions for deals of that size.
@John - The new site looks great. As you work through minor issues from here on, it seems as though paragraph breaks are removed from the posted comments (see above).