Rays & Red Sox & Brewers
Submitted by: JHB
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 28 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 40.9 | 21.4 | 19.5 | 15.6 | 19.5 | 23.4 | |
| Shane Drohan | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.8 |
Total Value:
25.2
Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 47.1 | 15.1 | 32 | 25.6 | 32 | 38.4 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | 30 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 38.1 | 25 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 15.8 | |
| Manuel Margot | 29 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 9.3 | 12 | -2.7 | -3.2 | -2.7 | -2.1 |
Total Value:
42.4
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 29 | Majors | 1B | Low | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alex Verdugo | 28 | Majors | OF | Low | 1 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Garrett Whitlock | 28 | Majors | SP | Medium | 5 | 47 | 35.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 14.1 | |
| Brayden Taylor | 21 | Minors | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 14.9 | 17.9 |
Total Value:
31.60
Comments
25Milwaukee says no thanks. Whitlock is the only pitcher and they would send him down to the minors immediately. They don't want Dalbec and don't want Verdugo, another outfielder. Taylor is too far away to be of any help.
The Red Sox expect to jump into contention now. This gives the team the "walk years" for Burnes, Glasnow, and Margot, all of whom are on the trade block. That's enough talent to boost them into the high 80s on team wins. The Rays, for two years from two players on the trade block, get a decade of talent from two good pitchers. The Brewers get Bobby Dalbec to assist at 3B until Brayden Taylor is ready. (Both Tyler Black and Brock Wilken had some defense issues this season, and they may end up at other positions.) Dalbec is really a 1B/3B/SS; he was a natural 3B but he was blocked by Devers. Verdugo is an upgrade in RF; Whitlock is a very promising pitcher with as much AFV as Burnes on their current contracts.
Rays won't be too pumped to get Drohan. He has middle reliever ceiling and never makes the Majors floor. Rays are saying no to this trade.
mp 2891, "Middle reliever ceiling?" Scouting report: "Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade. Now profiles as an athletic left-hander who will show four average-or-better pitches and a solid command and control profile." I think that six seasons of a mid-rotation starter is worth at least the BTV-assigned $5.7 million in value. Going to the Rays could only help. Source: Soxprospects dot com. https://www.soxprospects.com/players/drohan-shane.htm
Well, maybe the public info is outdated, but MLB.com gives Drohan a 60 grade on the Changeup and average or below average grades for everything else (including control). Fangraphs is similar; although they see the potential for above average control. Drohan's results in AAA were not impressive in 2023. Maybe he has starter potential, but I don't see top 3 arm potential. I remain unimpressed.
I believe that both scouting reports predate his improvement in 2023. Also, Drohan had trouble with one catcher in particular in AAA.
Rays aren't trading their 1st rounder from 2023 (or 2022 for that matter). Both guys have looked great so far, and their trade value is a fraction of what it will be in the upper minors. No team is trading a player for 10 cents today who looks like a pretty sure bet to be worth a 25-50 cents in a year or two.
mp2891, I think that BTV takes chances of both improvement and failure into context in their prospect evaluations. Brayden is likely their third-best 3B prospect, though. That's why I used him in a trade.
That's fine. Irrelevant but fine. Rays don't draft players and turn around and trade them... with one glaring exception. The Rays did trade Libby for Aroz, and I'm pretty sure they'd do that deal again and again and again.... This trade ain't the Aroz trade.
Most teams are more willing to part with blocked prospects. A classic case is Boston's trading Jeff Bagwell, a HOF third baseman, because he was blocked by Wade Boggs and John Valentin, the first and third-best third basemen in Red Sox team history (per Fangraphs). I don't see Brayden Taylor as the irrelevant exception to that rule, but perceptions vary.
Guys in A ball who won't be in the Majors for 2-3 years are not blocked. At least not with the Rays, who often trade guys in their 1st and 2nd years of arbitration. Guys who have been in the organization for only a few months are not blocked (Taylor was drafted this year for pete's sake). Trust me when I say this - Brayden Taylor will not be traded this offseason.
mp2891, you are so right! Almost certainly Brayden Taylor won't be traded! Of course, the Rays have 134 listed players and they only traded away seven players last offseason...You know, it's about twenty times harder predicting who WILL be traded than it is predicting who WON'T be traded.
I know you're messing with me, but I actually don't agree with your premise. The Rays have let it be known that they intend to trade Margot and Glasnow. Their payroll is 50% higher than it has ever been, so trading one of Aroz, Diaz and B.Lowe also makes sense (they will each make around $8MM). I expect Aroz to be traded this year because of the 3 he is the only one not under contract with relatively flat salaries. Harold Ramirez is likely to be traded too given that he is now starting to get expensive and the Rays generally prefer to DH by committee. I could see Mead or Aranda traded because of their defensive limitations, and I fully expect Brujan to get moved because he's out of options next year. Lastly, the Rays will probably move 2-3 of their primary relievers, though I can't say which ones (though I expect Adam to be moved). Time will tell how right I am, but I suspect I'll have a pretty good batting average.
Glasnow is the big trade candidate, with a $25 million salary but only a $15 million AAV.
As a Red Sox fan, I love the return for what’s being surrendered. However, this is wildly unrealistic. The Rays always seem to get the most out of their arms, so maybe they’d like Houck/Drohan enough to agree to the deal, but I doubt they’d wanna send Glasnow and Margot in the division. Verdugo is a poor fit on the Brewers given their collection of young outfielders and his one year of remaining control. I have a hard time imagining them accepting a return involving 0 top prospects for arguably the best SP on the market. One can dream, but this seems like a proposal that wasn’t considered from the perspective of the other franchises involved.
GOAT91, you raise a good point on whether the Rays would send Glasnow to Boston (or, even more, whether the Red Sox would send Houck and Drohan to Tampa Bay!) But per MLB dot com, Tyrone Taylor is slated as the starting RF for the Brewers, and their DH spot is rotated among three players already starting at C/1B/LF. I definitely see room for Verdugo given Taylor's dismal hitting in 2023 and Verdugo's GG-nominated defense. And I certainly did consider the other teams. Remember, the Red Sox only get three years' service here--all of the players they get are in "walk years." The Rays get ten years' service time, and the Brewers get fifteen. Houck, Drohan, Whitlock, and Taylor will be around for years, and one or two will turn out really well. I think that we're balanced here--and the BTV player values agree.
An important caveat: Shane Drohan, the 16th-best player on the Red Sox per BTV, was left unprotected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Whitlock has had positive fWAR three years running. He had injury issues in 2023, but his increased ERA was more from HR/FB%, which usually reverts to the mean. Both his SIERA and his xFIP were below four. There's no way he'd be sent to AAA. Dalbec tied for his league's lead in HR this year (fourth in slugging, fifth in OPS). He's included because Monasterio, slated for 3B, had just a .678 OPS, and Dalbec may well be a better choice. Verdugo is a huge upgrade over Tyrone Taylor, with a .267 OBP last season. Brayden Taylor won't help in 2024, but he'll be very good in time, and the small-market Brewers need that.
Your numbers for Dalbec were in the MINOR leagues. He also had a 34% K rate in the minors. Dalbec's OPS was .652 in the big leagues in 2022 and .570 in the big leagues last year. Verdugo is a rental and the Brewers would rather give their young guys playing time. The Red Sox used Whitlock as a reliever when he returned. He just isn't close to what the Brewers would want in a trade for Burnes. Taylor won't help for years and is the major player going to Milwaukee. Even if they were tanking on 2024 and 2025 they would need more than this.
OK, first: Dalbec's value in this trade is ZERO. He's just a sweetener, in case his AAA season was indicative of his improving his swing. Usually big minor league changes at a league-leading level aren't flukes.
Beyond that, Dalbec's career MLB stats are those of a backup corner infielder, .231/.297/.447. The Brewers' starting 3B, Monasterio, hit .259/.330/.348 as an age-25 rookie. That's 99 fewer SLG points. Dalbec is, over his career, a better hitter. In 2023 he was less good, but he had PA against only seven teams, and six were playoffs-bound. Interestingly, 27% of his PA were against the World Series Champion Rangers. Also, like most hitters, he did better after seeing a pitcher before in the game, batting .357 on his second or third look. Cora only gave him 14 PA in such situations. Finally, he was used against tough pitchers. The average fastball he saw was going 95.2 mph. Only one team, the Marlins, threw an average fastball that fast. The small sample size of 2023 isn't indicative of Dalbec's talent. Regarding the other players, Taylor is a top prospect, just what the Brewers strive to collect. Whitlock came back from the IL and relieved, but his career ERA is only 0.28 worse as a starter--he can fill that role, although he's not a 100-pitch starter. Interestingly, his ERA is much higher than his career xFIP: he'd do better with the Brewers' good defense. And a year of Verdugo, a GG-nominated right fielder, is a rather valuable asset. We're only talking about one year of Burnes, and he was injured in September, not a good sign. As the BTV calculus reflects, this is a fair return.