Braves
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Bummer | 30 | Majors | RP | Medium | 1 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
Total Value:
1
White Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Lopez | 29 | Majors | 2B | SS | Low | 2 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Michael Soroka | 26 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.4 | |
| Braden Shewmake | 25 | Majors | SS | 6 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.3 | ||
| Jared Shuster | 25 | Majors | SP | 6 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
Total Value:
6.5
Comments
10The pitching market this winter is about to be crazy.
The Braves have a pattern of overpaying (a bit) for relievers, and this is yet another example.
John, How, or on what criteria is 'availability' determined ?
I should add that we were too high on Lopez. We've seen time and time again that light-hitting infielders go for less than they should, so we're making an adjustment to the model to account for that. You'll see a few of those types go down a little.
thank you
Yeah, I thought that the numbers looked really high for two years of control of Nicky Lopez. On the White Sox side of things, I also don't understand how Michael Kopech is negative value (-6.0, I think).
It's -3.6. He was worth -0.9 fWAR in 2023, and since the most recent year carries the most weight in our model, he projects for 0 fWAR in 2024. Meanwhile, he's projected to make $3.6M in salary. Yes, he has upside if someone can help him figure it out, but his trade value is extremely low, since the probability is high that he'll continue to be worth less than his salary.
My initial thought on this trade was that the Braves gave up way too much for Bummer, but I really don't think they did. All the players they traded have relatively low ceilings (I initially thought Shuster was better than he is), and Bummer's ceiling is very high. Bummer was one of the unluckiest pitchers in all of baseball last year based on FIP/ERA and has nasty stuff.
The Braves in this trade remind me of the late 1970's Red Sox. Their farm system had been so good (or lucky) for years that they forgot the value of talent, assuming it could be easily replaced. White Sox win.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
It's our best-guess, and is only there for show. It has absolutely no bearing on their valuation.