Blue Jays & Guardians
Submitted by: BFG
Blue Jays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 6.8 | |
| Hunter Gaddis | 25 | Majors | SP | 6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
Total Value:
8.2
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 26 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 25.1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 14.2 |
Total Value:
11.8
Comments
17
I doubt the Jays do this one...
The Guardians aren't trading Bieber unless it helps improve their offense.
the valuation on this site for Bieber is so low. Current projection is 3 WAR by Steamer. Gray just got 25M a year for a similar projection, and his overall $ per WAR was about 8.5M. (8.5*3)-12.2 = 13.3 And that's assuming an 8.5M valuation on his cost per WAR, which could be seen as low since Nola just got 12.6M per WAR projection. Even a 10M per WAR valuation for him would put his trade value at about 18M, and that isn't even taking into consideration the QO that will very likely be issued to him
You need to factor in the injury risk, which is very high with Bieber, who missed over 2 months this past year with elbow inflammation. Yes, he made two starts at the end of the season, but the risk didn't magically go away. History shows that pitchers with elbow inflammation almost always end up getting TJS. His Savant page also shows disturbing underlying trends. The question is, is any team willing to pay over $12M in salary to take on that risk, plus additional prospect capital? We're saying, given this profile, he'd be worth about $18M for one year if he were a FA.
I get that. Low tier pitching is going for about 6.5M per WAR. High tier is going for 12.5M per WAR. That's an average of 9.5M per WAR. Bieber is def a bit above average imo (his savant numbers are like that due to his injury, his percentiles are fine for last year when he was healthy). I'd put him at about 11M cost per WAR if healthy, but maybe more in the 9M per WAR range due to injury risks. That's about a 15M valuation + the QO. I still think you're way too low on him. I guess we shall see if he is traded what the return is. Granted, you'll blame the FO for over paying for him instead of being critical towards your model, as you do
John, as a Cleveland fan I wholeheartedly agree with you. There is no way I take on Bieber's risk and be responsible for his $12M salary in its entirety. If Cleveland wants significant value in return for Bieber I think they need to add a good prospect/player and/or cash to cover a good portion of what is owed to Bieber.
he regressed badly that's why
he's projected for a 3ish WAR season. At a valuation of around 10M a season, that's a 30M player on a 12M contract. Even with injury risk you're still going to value them at over 6M. He also has a potential QO attached to him which has a bit of value. Teams get to perform and engage with medicals prior to trades. If a team is satisfied with his medicals, they will be trading for him to be that 3ish WAR pitcher he is projected to be. Yes, injury risk will be taken into account for sure, but there is no way that a fully healthy Bieber is worth 20M in trade value and a "some injury risk" Bieber is worth 5M. Glasnow has had significant injuries in his career, and has missed time in 2021/2022/2023. He is projected for 3.8 WAR on a 25M contract. His AFV here is 38M for a trade value of 13M. Why is Glasnow getting a full bill of health no injury risk valuation of 10M $/WAR and Bieber getting dinged big with injury risk. The valuations make no sense. Glasnow is just as likely to get injured as Bieber is. Both have similar values imo. Glasnow has a bit less injury risk and is likely to be a bit better if healthy, but also costs 12M more then Bieber does.
If it happens, it's a risk-trading move by both clubs: Bieber's injury risk vs. Manoah's Steve Blass washout risk.
Great Trade!
Only way Blue Jays get Bieber is if you throw in some offense
I like the idea of Manoah from a Guardians fan perspective but I agree with the other commenters that I would prefer and predict the front office will be more focused on getting offense in return to Bieber.
Have you people lost your minds? Did any of you watch Manoah pitch last season? At this point I'd bet Gaddis pitches better than Manoah so hell no, I'm not giving Bieber or Gaddis for him. If Cleveland is dealing Bieber(I hope they do) then they'll need to add some SP too. The ready SP depth in Cleveland is extremely thin at the moment unless you want to rely on Curry and Gaddis? On the flip side of this deal, there is no way in hell I'm giving that much value for Manoah at this point. He looks like a complete flop.
The Guardians don't need any batting practice pitchers :)
I think Cleveland would be nuts to make this trade. I'd say, just for Gaddis would be a decent gamble, but in no way does this trade pass inspection in Cleveland.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Well, the jays have a bad relationship with Manoah so unless they find some better trade they would do it.
I agree