Mariners & Diamondbacks & Brewers

Submitted by: kurteger

Mariners

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Devin Williams29MajorsRPLow23616.319.815.819.823.7
Corbin Carroll23MajorsOFLow7219.7108.811188.8111133.2
Tyler Black23Minors2B00013.310.713.316

Total Value:

144.10

Diamondbacks

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Corbin Burnes29MajorsSPMedium148.915.133.82733.840.5
Andres Munoz25MajorsRPLow578.828.550.340.250.360.4
Christian Yelich32MajorsOFLow595.7136.5-40.8-48.9-40.8-32.6
Starlin Aguilar18Minors1B0001.41.11.41.6
Gabriel Gonzalez19MinorsOF00013.110.513.115.7
Bryan Woo23MajorsSP653.425.128.222.628.233.9
Cash25

Total Value:

111

Brewers

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jarred Kelenic24MajorsOFLow536.41719.415.519.423.3
Emerson Hancock24MajorsSP67.73.93.833.84.5
Cade Marlowe26MajorsOF69.76.82.92.32.93.5

Total Value:

26.10

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ebragg

Mariners fan?

kurteger

You have to think of the money saved as being part of the deal. The Brewers would have $40M off their books, so consider their part of the trade Kelenic, Hancock, Marlowe plus two very good players who actually want to be there (re: Burnes), and who have had more than one good year in the last four years (re: Yelich), as if you should want to bet on him returning to a 7 WAR player or even maintaining a 3-4 WAR average over the next half decade. This is a salary dump, while getting a guy who is from Milwaukee, and was one of the best prospects in baseball. He's on the verge of a breakout, but I think he wants to play in his hometown where his girlfriend and him are from, while Carroll is a Seattle guy who would probably stay for most of his career alongside Julio. You also act like giving up 5 former Top 100 prospects, including one of the best closers in baseball (Munoz) who isn't going to make more than around $32M over the next 5 years, all before his 30s, a current Top 75 pick (Gonzalez), and a former Top 5 Prospect in all of baseball. While also including a SP who has 6 years of control and has #1-#2 upside. That's a painful trade, but you have to dig into everything to see it the way a front office would, and realize Gonzalez is very undervalued. He was 19 years old in Modesto (pitchers park) hitting .348/.403/.530 = .933 OPS compared to Jackson Chourio (03/11/04) who is only two months younger than Gonzalez (01/04/04), while Jackson had a .973 OPS in A ball with far more swing in miss at age 18, and who has dropped to an .803 OPS in AA at 19 years old. Is Chourio the better prospect? Was he a year younger in 2022 while playing A ball? Sure, but they are the same size, have similar skillsets, while this site lists Chourio as being x5 more valuable than Gonzalez. I like Chourio better, but not x5 better or in other words, I'd take my chances on 1 of 5 Gonzalez level prospects breaking out than trust the numbers on Chourio. Also keep in mind this was Gonzalez first year in pro ball inside the U.S., while Chourio was in his second season in the U.S. last year. That's a lot of change and shouldn't be dismissed. Furthermore Chourio is about to sign an 8 year $82M deal. Which shows just how valuable Gonzalez could be this time next year, especially if he keeps elevating his game!

jmont1

This is an horrible deal for the Brewers and one heck of a steal for the Mariners. They lose an all-star RP (who has been badly de-valued), a TOR starter, Yelich, and Black (a guy Milwaukee likes a lot). They get two OFs they don't want and Hancock. No where even close to the players the Brewers are losing.

kurteger

Kelenic comes with FIVE years of control... He's a former Top 5 prospect in all of baseball, grew up a Brewers fan and wants to play for them badly in front of his family and friends. This is a guy who is as good as Yelich (3 WAR player) and will cost around $75M less over the next 5 years, while also still being only 24 years old next season. He's still two years from his peak, and all of his years of control will be before 30, as opposed to 5 years after the 30s. While if he breaks out, he becomes something just shy of Yelich at his peak MVP levels. Probably somewhere around a 4-5 WAR All-Star OF. Meanwhile, you're losing 1 year of a starter who regressed, has had well-documented off-the-field problems with management, and is already getting paid more than 1/2-2/3 of what he's worth on the free agent market. There's just not a lot of value in that. Devin Williams is a great reliever, which is why two years of him is worth the Mariners eating $25M of Yelich's contract to make him go away. Cade Marlowe is very undervalued across the country and has the ability to be a 2.5-3.0 win player who can cover CF at his peak and at worst is a guy who can do a lot of things well and won't hurt you when he's in the lineup. Kelenic and Hancock are both former 1st round, 6th overall picks. There's a lot of pedigree here. Again, you have to consider the $45M+ worth of financial play in the payroll as part of the return. Yelich's 2023 was worth almost as much as his 2021 & 2022 seasons combined. It's easy to see the asset when he shines, but realize this may be the last chance you have to dump him without paying a kings ransom. If he regresses again, you guys don't have the minor leagues or the payroll to offset a $25M blackhole on your roster. You guys are rebuilders plain and simple, which is where a closer has no value. You don't want to secure 10 extra wins and push yourself to the middle of the 1st round of the draft, if you already are acknowledging you don't have much chance to win. The Brewers are listening on Burnes, Adames, Williams, Contreras, and would probably jump at the chance to dump Yelich, so what does that leave?! You literally had 4 hitters post an OPS+ over 100 who played in at least 50 games (Contreras - 125; Yelich - 124; Santana - 109; Canha - 120). Of those 4 players, one is possibly going to be traded, one would be traded if it was possible, one has already been traded, and the other is a free agent. Not exactly a stacked lineup. Once Williams is removed from your bullpen an excellent 'pen becomes just a good group of relievers and the rotations only starter with 2 or more years of control with a FIP under 4.00 is Peralta, Houser was 3.99 FIP and has 1 year, Burnes posted a 3.81 FIP and also has 1 year. Not exactly a stud rotation and they let Woodruff walk. I think your comments are more irritation with your front office than with this trade because quite honestly, you guys don't really deserve more than what you've been offered in my trade proposal.

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