Kilian is a highly ranked prospect (45 FV), who admittedly struggled in 2023 on a very low sample size, but was an inning eater in AAA where he earned a FIP of 4.32. He costs league minimum and has 6 years of control and is ready to start as a 4 or 5 in 2024. Glasnow is an amazing pitcher... if he can stay healthy, and that's a really big if, plus he does come with 25 million problems.

I’m extremely skeptical of this valuation of Kilian. He doesn’t miss bats despite upper 90s heat and he seems to have lost his command as well. I suspect the prospect rankings this offseason will bump him down to low single digits in trade value. I’d be extremely happy with this trade from the Cubes’ perspective but I can’t imagine the Rays would do this one for one swap.

I'm a Rays fan and I don't think there's any chance the Rays trade Glas for Killian in a 1 for 1. Frankly, the valuations for 1st year pitchers have gotten crazy the last few weeks. Guys who are ranked in the middle to back half of their team's top 30 lists are being valued at $20-30MM just because they had a partial season in the Majors where they didn't totally shit the bed (though I struggle to say that applies to Killian, who totally shit the bed). Many of these guys are going to have sophomore slumps as batters better prepare for them and their values are going to plummet. That's the way of things in the Majors, but it makes proposing trades on BTV really difficult right now. Cubs fans think they have a golden ticket in trade value with Killian, but at best he's a #5 arm with 6 years of control (and that might be generous). That leads to a high value on BTV but no real trade value in the real world. On the other hand, Glas is a TOR Ace who spent 2 years rehabbing the same arm injury with rest when he needed surgery. The Rays asked him to do this so he could pitch in the post-season both years. Now he's tagged with the injury prone label on BTV and that's fine I guess, but a wise GM is going to see that all of Glas' injuries were from a problem that only TJS could fix, that he has now had TJS and returned to pitch the most innings of his career (and at the max level the Rays had set for him before ST). I'm a Rays homer but a 175+ IP season and Cy Young nominee isn't far fetched in my opinion with Glas. With the QO draft pick, I think his true value is somewhere around $25MM and the BTV value is overly discounted for an injury reputation that isn't fair. In the real world, the Rays may elect to hold him through the Deadline if they can't get fair value for him.