Guardians & Cardinals & Cubs
Submitted by: BirdsOnTheArch
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Kilian | Minors | RHP | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 12.7 | ||||||
| Michael McGreevey | Minors | RHP | 5.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 | ||||||
| Tyler O'Neill | 26 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 37.3 | 12.8 | 24.5 | 19.6 | 24.5 | 29.4 | |
| Juan Yepez | 24 | Majors | 1B | DH | Medium | 6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.4 |
Total Value:
42.2
Cardinals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | Minors | RHP | 10.9 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.1 | ||||||
| Justin Campbell | Minors | RHP | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 | ||||||
| Jaison Chourio | Minors | OF | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | ||||||
| Petey Halpin | Minors | OF | 4.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.2 | ||||||
| Amed Rosario | 26 | Majors | SS | OF | Medium | 1 | 13.7 | 9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
Total Value:
27.9
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | 27 | Majors | OF | SS | Very low | 6 | 31.7 | 21.8 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 11.9 |
Total Value:
9.9
Comments
22The only player I think Cleveland will want is Yepez, and only because he’s right handed and can play first. Kilian and McGreevey are back of the rotation filler and O’Neill has too much swing and miss in his game. I just can’t see Cleveland giving up so much potential upside for mediocrity.
I do not think Bibee will be available... Even if he was, I actually don't think Cleveland is willing to spend 20+ on O'Neill (he has two years of control and has been inconsistent)... Plus as strange as it sounds, the Cleveland FO has committed to Straw, he isnt going anywhere. I'm not against the return for Cleveland, I just don't see the FO having anything to do with this deal
Reworked my previous trade Cubs and Cards were linked to Kevin Kiermaier, in Straw they get a platinum glove caliber center fielder who is extremely affordable and left handed. If he learns how to hit even average they have either a nice building block to pair with their young exciting of prospects or valuable trade bait. Cards again get really good rotation depth to take over in a couple years and some toolsy OF's that look promising. Walker, Carlson, and Noot are the starting OF, and Rosario replaces Dejong. Guardians fans I know you cherish Bibee but he is your most expendable SP prospect unless you really don't care for Espino or Williams and you also save likely around 10 million to extend Shane Bieber. Plus ya get the right handed pop you guys need along with two mid to back end rotation pieces.
I know Bibee should be valued higher on here and rightfully so, but with this trade you'd slide Kwan to center (where to me he seems more than capable of handling) and use O'Neill in left to get roughly the same value defensively as you had before but with a much scarier line up without a hole in the lineup. Appreciate any feedback, but c'mon I just like the idea of a Bibee, Graceffo, and Hence led rotation lemme dream lol
Guardian fans do have their fatted calves... When you look at the inclusion of Bibee.. the first reaction is as you've stated.. The structure of the deal overwhelmingly supports the needs of the Guardians save for one: Catcher. It should be understood.. a team can't fulfill every need with one deal... O'Neil in LF brings the RHH pop the Guardians lack.. As is O'Neil's pattern, he's due for a good season in 2023... Killian is certainly closest to ML readiness as an RHSP. Both Bibee & McGreevey are about the same level of readiness for ML action... As far as talent.. we'll see how they do on the field.. fwiw, Cleveland immediately gains an ML MOR SP with this deal.. can't have too much, I suppose.. Juan Yepez is blocked in St Looo.. but, would have a clear path to the larger side of a platoon at 1B at the ML level in Cleveland. Yepez is not an OF'er.. and should only be out in the grass in an emergency.. If anything, the Cubs might want a small sweetener from either/both the Cardinals and Guardians to participate in this complex deal.. It shouldn't be a show stopper, regardless.. See!,.. Some Guardian fans will compromise.. some won't..
Thanks for the thought out reply, I spent way too much time trying to make a deal like this potentially work lol. As for the catching situation I know the Cleveland head honcho said he believes Bo should be the choice going forward and he does seem like he'd be capable but I must also admit I haven't personally seen him play much myself so I was taking their word for it. Yepez getting the lion's share of 1st base action while Josh Naylor DHs seems like a good idea to me just because I'm still not sure if Josh is 100% after the injury so getting him off his feet more often just seemed like a perfect fit. As for the Cubs I agree about the sweetener I just couldn't really find one that seemed suitable. I kinda made this trade in mind with the Guards trading Straw beforehand, but consolidated it into a 3 teamer to give a little more context on the Kwan situation
Brennan can also slide over to CF (actually, CF is his best spot.. but can play all three spots in the outfield).. The issue there is Brennan is a LHH OF'er.. just like Kwan.. but, the SSS split data says Brennan shouldn't face LHP's.. Either way.. there are enough OF players to fill the OF spots..
I believe Espino would be available before Bibee and of Bibee, Espino and Williams, Bibee may very well be the most coveted at this time. He has power stuff with excellent control. He is not our "most expendable SP" prospect by any means. If you're going by what the national pundits are saying then you are being misled because they haven't much clue when it comes to Cleveland's farm system. It's the exact reason he's only valued at 10.9 here instead of 45 which is where he should be. The same thing happened with Espino and Williams as well. I like McGreevey and I think that he is going to have a good ML career, but he's not in the same boat as Espino, Williams and Bibee. There's a deal here to be had, but it won't include Bibee. Allen could replace Bibee in this deal and it would be close in value. I'll look to make a proposal that I see as more fitting.
For Coach Tyler O'Neill's expected salary for next season clocks in at just shy of 5 million, so for the price of what would be Straw's contract you get a RH power bat with gold glove capability and keep Kwan's production. With O'Neill my biggest concern isn't the swing and miss(that's becoming more of the norm with power hitters) it's his health though he's reportedly putting in a TON (haha) of work to be in more baseball shape rather than bodybuilder shape. And in going to CLE where you guys have been churning out good obp players I think it's reasonable that they could help that issue of his game. At that point I think he could easily play up to the expected excess of 15 m value as long as he has a full healthy season. And funnily enough you mentioned trading a top 100 prospect for Tyler, and guess who clocks in at #99 on MLB's list? Bibee. In only about a third of a season Yepez (who keep in mind was blocked behind Pujols practically the entire season) is listed as having two value, I think that number as it stands is exceptionally low. (similarly to how Bibee-Williams is viewed) For him to have 12 HRs in a third of a season's ABs it's reasonable to project him for at least 25 HRs, which goes a long way in your line up. It would be a move to strengthen their current playoff aspirations, albeit you could say it has high risk-reward potential.
So it becomes a conversation of current production vs future contributions and I genuinely think it would help the Guardians become a post season staple for at least the next two seasons. But hey that's just my opinion, so take it for what it's worth lol
The conclusions you've stated have merit.. O'Neil does bring the defense.. does SWAT !! ...is a RHH'er.. Yepez is blocked, especially at his best spot 1B.. he does SWAT.. he does bring good defense.. is a RHH'er etc... etc.. The numbers should be $ 4.5 MM for 2023 and ~ $ 9 MM for 2024.. The pitchers: Killian starts right away and is the Guardians # 3 in front of Quantrill... McGreevy and Bibee are about the same time frame.. A good deal from the Guardians perspective.. fills two holes immediately.. adds to a strength and provides a future lottery ticket for the rotation.. It's Bibee.. the automatic NO THINKING PERMITTED crowd won't let it go.. so sad...
I'm not saying Cleveland would be against O'Neill, I'm just saying I believe Cleveland isn't willing to put Bibee and Straw in a deal to get him and O'Neill is to high for Cleveland's price not monetary wise, but value wise on here... I believe Bibee is someone Cleveland wouldn't trade in almost any deal period outside of Cleveland getting Mike Trout while the Angels pay his contract... Unless it's an overhaul that Cleveland cannot refuse, I cannot see Cleveland moving him. Secondly Straw just signed an extension last season and Cleveland has never signed someone long term then traded them in before year 2... I'm talking about going back to Swisher and Bourn days when those contracts flopped. They got moved in year three. Straw just isn't going anywhere and trust me, it's not because I want it that way, it's because of the Cleveland's FO and history with extensions/long term signings. They just never have traded someone so soon after extending/signing for 3-4+ years... Straw just isn't going anywhere. Also Kwan is a LF, he's not a CF. He can play there, but if Straw would be moved, it would be Brennan in CF not Kwan. O'Neill doesn't 100% have a spot since he would be splitting time between the three OF positions and DH, while Naylor, Yepez are splitting time between 1B/DH... Also I haven't seen O'Neills offseason, but it would be better if he went to a more baseball body, but Cleveland isn't the type to offer 20+ for a guy they aren't sure of. He wouldn't be the starter, even if acquired, he would be mixing in with Kwan, Brennan, Gonzalez between LF, CF, RF and DH... I just cannot see Cleveland offering more than 10 for a rotation guy... Yepez has more ABs on paper than O'Neill would...
Killian is going to jump right in when he was bombed in his three starts for the Cubs and pitched so so at triple A last season. You both assume the Cubs would do this deal. They are looking for pitching so if Killian so ready, they would likely keep him. Gson, you also tend to ignore how Cleveland operates especially when it doesn't fit your narrative. I agree with Sportscoach that I don't see Straw traded. They value defense and invested in Straw. It would be very uncharacteristic of this front office to change course after one season when he brought the defense and his bat showed some positive signs in September. O'Neil struck out 1/3 of the time during a down 2022 season. Is he the 2021 player or the player from 2020 and 2022. Not sure that this is the slam dunk that Gson thinks, but it is a good proposal. Would the Cardinal front office give up the MLB talent while just receiving only Rosario back that is MLB ready? Will Cleveland's front office see more than a back-end starter in McGreevy that they would be willing to move Bibee? Will Cleveland see a path toward the 2021 O'Neil? Only they know that answer, not any of us here on BTV.
Great point about Killian JMF. I doubt the Cubs would do that and I meant to say that in my initial reply. I wouldn't give up Killian for Straw and I doubt any GM would either. What's lost in all this O'Neil talk is where does he play? If this deal were to happen Yepez will share 1B duties with Naylor and DH with Naylor and Gonzalez. How does O'Neil fit in? Kwan isn't going to CF as Brennan is a better CFer than Kwan. There's just too many moving parts in and after this transaction. They committed to Straw before they realized what Brennan was. The issue isn't if Straw is available and more of a question of who wants him. The answer to that is nobody so he'll probably end up as the 4th OF/defensive replacement/pinch runner. At least if they're committed to winning a WS he will be because he is a burden offensively and puts this team at a disadvantage irregardless of his defense. All these old folks loving the slap hitting, low strikeout resurgence. Well, it went away for a reason and if Cleveland doesn't get some power in it's lineup then the results will be the same. Don't take my word for it, look back over the last 20+ yrs and come to that realization for yourself.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Straw sucks and if they get an opportunity to deal him they sure as hell will. If they could go back in time knowing what they know now, he wouldn't have been extended.
Deal with the fact Cleveland committed to him...
>99 % of all deals presented by fans never happen.... <------ the truth.. Have you even looked at what this deal is?.. 2 RHH with power that play positions of need... BTW... your numbers on O'Neil are crap.. Straw isn't irreplaceable.. & You didn't know what the FO will or won't do..
Gson, you also do not know what the front office will or won't do either so get off your high horse.
ty for confirming what was just stated... again.. and again..
Okay then, I do not believe the FO will like this deal... First reason why I don't believe... They aren't going to put in 20 value into O'Neill... He has power, but has only had one legit season since coming into the bigs. How can they merit sending a very good pitching prospect back for a guy who hasn't been very consistent. You can get Brian Anderson for next to nothing or trade a top 100 prospect for O'Neill. In my mind Anderson is signed before we trade Bibee for O'Neill. Can we not just find a way to get Yepez and McGreevey? Also I am 99.9999% sure Cleveland will not trade Straw this off season. CF is his position to lose and that won't happen before June... Gson you aren't one to speak either... You have the same type of opinions as I do, just worded differently. Cleveland is just giving up to much for O'Neill... Cleveland may do the offer of like Tena and Curry, but I doubt they would offer anymore...
Brian Anderson isn't in the deal.. he is irrelevant.. Certainty like the 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 % = irrelevant O'Neil brings a RHH w/ power to a team that is desperately short of power.. Straw is not guaranteed to be in Cleveland next week.. let alone next June.. Your comments & suggestions are exactly as was stated: > 99 % won't happen.. ... that's using the same words or different words..
You have your opinion I have mine... So am I not allowed to have an opinion on what I think the FO would do?