Yankees & Padres
Submitted by: rcorcoran
Yankees
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | 27 | Majors | CF | Medium | 2 | 22.4 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | |
| Juan Soto | 25 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 56.8 | 33 | 23.8 | 19.1 | 23.8 | 28.6 |
Total Value:
33.9
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt | 28 | Majors | LRP | SP | Medium | 4 | 42.1 | 22.4 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 19.7 | 23.7 |
| Randy Vasquez | 24 | Majors | SP | 6 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 7.1 | ||
| Jhony Brito | 25 | Majors | SP | 6 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.9 | ||
| Drew Thorpe | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8.8 | 11 | 13.3 |
Total Value:
41.5
Comments
15
Featuring this proposal for discussion purposes. Based on reports, it's one possible combination.
One tidbit: If the Yankees acquired Soto, and he declines the QO post-2023, as he would, the value of the draft pick the Yankees would receive if he signs elsewhere isn't much (around $2-$3M), because they'll be well over the luxury tax limit and, per the CBA, the pick would fall much deeper in the rounds (depending on their payroll and tax situation). So it's basically immaterial.
If you really want Soto do NOT send SD much of anything cause its most likely a rental. SD has to bow down to NYY if they really wanna move him. There are better trades out there for NYY on a cheaper end with better returns than getting 1 yr rental
As a Yankees fan, I would 100% do this. It would be nice to not include one of Vasquez or Brito and include Warren instead, but that shouldn’t stop this trade from happening. The combination of Schmidt/Brito/Vasquez could be about 350/400 MLB innings for the Padres at about 4m, plus would allow the Padres to add a solid #3 starter with money saved.
A bit of an overpay for Yankees, but not terrible
It's a bit surprising that no Yankee OF's have been in the trade packages that are being floated. With no viable internal options, SD would need to replace two starting outfielders, preferably lefties since the only remaining lefty bat in the lineup would be Cronenworth. I know it's unpalatable for a lot of Yankee fans, but Dominguez being an MLB-ready OF prospect that bats left would help fill the void created by trading both Soto and Grisham. If the Yankees sign/extend Soto, only one of their top 3 OF prospects is going to play regularly in CF between Soto and Judge for the next 8 years. Pereira could platoon with Grisham until Jones comes up in '25/26 which is when Grisham becomes a free agent.
The problem is none of the Yankees outfielders are actually MLB ready. Dominguez is going to miss a good chunk of 2024 recovering from TJ (and there’s no way the Yankees trade him for a rental). Jones is going to move slowly through the minors, but has a lot of potential. Pereira struggled in the majors last year and was only up because of so many injuries last year.
If the Yankees do trade for Soto it would be with the intent to extend him (unlikely, but a possibility) or resign him as free agent. Trading for him now allows them to 'kick the tires' on him so to speak, get a leg up on negotiations if he elects free agency after 2023, and likely getting the most out of him being a contract year. Soto is exactly what the Yankees want and need, arguably the best lefty bat in the MLB and its leader in OBP. I agree with most of what you said. Yes, Dominguez is hurt, but at least he would come back for the 2nd half. Pereira did struggle, but how much more does he have left to prove in AAA, and it's hard to imagine using a 1st round pick on Jones and not expecting him to figure into their future plans in the next couple years.
BTV's has updated Dominguez's surplus value and increased it by nearly 10 million. The math no longer works.
no because I think that Juan Soto is not going to resign with them in 2025 since Juan Soto agent when he gets a chance to get in free agency he always does.
As a yankee fan, if you do this trade this could be the biggest blow for the yankees. you are getting rid of 2 members of your starting rotation for next season, as well as the the next 3 pitchers who would take their place. You are then taking away all of your depth which was the exact issue we had after trading for Montas. I love Soto and want him, but you cant expect a team to give away all our pitching depth, 2 more prospects (probably everson pereira and maybe oswald peraza), and then take on all of the money both players are owed. Ridiculous trade
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Lol
What other team has the the amount of MLB-ready pitching the Padres needs, is willing to trade those guys, and is able to add 30-35m in payroll? Yankees are absolutely in the drivers seat.
The Cubs do and I doubt they want to spend the half billion on Ohtani, or put up the money for an iffy long-term Bellinger. The Cubs have Killian, Wesneski, Brown and Assad as MLB ready arms. They could easily package two with a hitter prospect (Canario, Alcantara, Cassie, Triantos or Murray) to make it happen. The trick would be signing Soto long term as it would run 400mil+.
This is a very good point. The Cubs are the main team I'm worried about, especially if they're willing to include Horton in a trade, but we haven't heard much about them in talks with the Padres yet. A Soto trade would push their payroll to ~210m and would still need to add to the rotation after the trade. How far over the luxury tax would the Cubs be willing to go in 2024? I know they plan on spending, have they said how much?