Rays & Cubs
Submitted by: Benjo
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 35 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 8.2 | 17.5 | -9.3 | -11.2 | -9.3 | -7.5 |
Total Value:
-9.3
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 29 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 9.5 | 12 | -2.5 | -3 | -2.5 | -2 |
Total Value:
-2.5
Comments
3
I think the dollars on the model is off. It looks like Smyly gets $8500 in 23, a buyout of $2500, or mutual option of $8500 for 34. He is not guaranteed 17 mil, if I am reading Cots contracts correctly. So both players are making relatively the same. At this point, Smyly is as good a pitcher as Margot is a CF. He was sharp the first half of 23. Threw a lot of sinkers in the dirt second half. Needs to throw his fastball (93+) more, imo. Rays will fix him. This trade addresses each team's need, imo. Trying to be fair MP!
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Thanks for the catch on Smyly's salary. We took another look. He will receive a base of $8.5M in 2024, but he earned an extra $2M for pitching more than 140 innings in 2023. He does not project to exceed the value of the 2025 option, which means the Cubs are likely to go the buyout route. So at the moment, he figures to be owed $13M in total. We've updated that.
A Smyly for Margot trade would be fair, and would make the Rays better. The question though is whether the Rays are interested in keeping Margot’s money on the books. Personally, I think they will ultimately cut $40-50MM from their current payroll to get 2024 spend down to their historical average. With 3 top starting pitchers on IL for most/all of 24 and the possible loss of Franco, this just isn’t the season to spend 50% more than they have ever spent.