Mariners & Orioles & Brewers

Submitted by: kurteger

Mariners

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Kyle Bradish27MajorsSPLow5105.649.656.144.856.167.3
Devin Williams29MajorsRPLow23616.319.815.819.823.7
Adley Rutschman26MajorsCVery low4146.971.975607590
Felix Bautista29MajorsRPLow43121.69.57.69.511.3
Tyler Wells29MajorsSPLRPHigh313.811.52.31.92.32.8

Total Value:

162.70

Orioles

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Corbin Burnes29MajorsSPMedium148.915.133.82733.840.5
William Contreras26MajorsCMedium4129.768.561.24961.273.5
Logan Gilbert27MajorsSPLow4108.142.165.952.765.979.1
Bryce Miller25MajorsSP656.530.525.920.725.931.1
Tyler Locklear22Minors3B00011.39.111.313.6

Total Value:

198.10

Brewers

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jarred Kelenic24MajorsOFLow536.41719.415.519.423.3
Grayson Rodriguez23MajorsSP5106.351.654.743.854.765.7
Emerson Hancock24MajorsSP67.73.93.833.84.5
Harry Ford20MinorsC00018.514.818.522.3
Cole Young20MinorsSS00018.514.818.522.2

Total Value:

114.90

You found a premium feature!

Want an ad-free experience, with access to our premium features, like the Team Rankings, GM Override, Player Rankings, and Future Trade/Free Agent/Extension Values Graphs?

kurteger

The thought process is that the Orioles send Adley back to the PNW, while maintaining 4 years of an elite 25 year old catcher. The Brewers who are ready to use Jefferson Quero now, have Harry Ford to come up in 2025 and split the time with Quero, and still has the defensive versatility with his plus speed to help out at 2B, 3B, or maybe an outfield corner. The Mariners keep using Raleigh as a starting catcher against RHP, while Rutschman starts against all LHP, and can be a late inning replacement behind the plate, when the Mariners need to pinch hit for Cal against a LHP (I see the Mariners adding Rooker), while Adley would get significant time at 1B (80+ games), while also getting time at catcher (55+ games), and at DH (10-15 games). The Brewers walk away with 5 current or past Top 100 prospects, all have 6+ years of control, while only sacrificing the last year of Burnes (Grayson may be better anyway as soon as 2024 or 2025), two years of Williams (don't need a closer for a reset), and 4 years of a catcher with a ready replacement waiting to take over. Considering the rotational depth issues facing Milwaukee in 2024 and the cost of young starters, getting a potential ace and a #3 or #4 by trading from depth makes a lot of sense. The Brewers should be fine with their current bullpen without Devin W., and this will save them $21M to allocate towards other needs. Kelenic steps into RF, moving Yelich to LF, and Cole Young projects as the future starting SS in 2024 and beyond. The Mariners fans are going to be upset about losing Gilbert, for what reason, I have no idea, he's not good against the AL West and while he should get markedly better over the next few years, Bradish does damage against the AL West, so it's all about fit and the Mariners get another pre-arb season, saving $5M by swapping the two, which should buy them time while they offload Ray next offseason when he proves he's healthy again. Bryce Miller gives the Orioles 3 starters to replace Rodriguez and Bradish. The Orioles rotation becomes significantly more formidable with Burnes, Gilbert, Miller, Means, and Kremer over Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Kremer, and Irvin. Bautista hurts losing, but he wouldn't be available until 2025 and would take up a roster spot, something the Mariners can work around with less young talent clamoring for playing time in the majors and inclusion on the 40-man roster. Locklear immediately steps into the void left by Mountcastle or O'Hearn sometime between 2024 and 2025, depending on productivity by the Orioles current 1B & DH, as well as the desire for the team to trade either for additional pieces. Jerry Dipoto sees a young Goldschmidt in Locklear and the minor league production gives reason to at least consider the comp. The Mariners get a two closers, one who'll sit on the shelf for a year, while another who can help in 2024. Tyler Wells becomes something of an enigma on the team as he could be a middle or long reliever, 5th starter until Robbie Ray returns midseason, or he could be hidden in Tacoma, as he has two remaining options. Either way, he's the sneaky depth piece the Mariners were missing last year when Gonzales and Ray both went down with injuries. Wells also has had success against the AL West, making him a better roster fit for Seattle than the Orioles. The Mariners would enter the 2024 season with a rotation of Castillo, Bradish, Kirby, Woo, and Wells, with room to potentially add Snell and/or Yamamoto, if either of those negotiations gain traction with Woo than being able to be flipped for a controllable bat and Wells, rotating to the bullpen or Tacoma, until needed. Rutschman has experience at 1B in college and the minor leagues, with a full Spring Training to work with the great infield coach Perry Hill, he should be able to hold his own as a part-time 1B & catcher. This also creates an opportunity for the Mariners in a separate transaction to acquire Brent Rooker to be the 1B against LHP and to get some spot starts in an outfield corner or DH. While Orioles fans love Adley and Bautista, the reality is that Contreras was the better catcher in 2023, the rotation is one of the best in the league after this trade, and the Orioles will need to find some guys to complement Cano and Perez in the back of the bullpen either way, but this means they use their financial resources to add Josh Hader (a MD native), and maybe Robert Stephenson or Jordan Hicks with the money they save by avoiding the FA market for starters.

wspahn67

Brewers say no. This hurts them on the mound, on defense, and on offense. Contreras is untouchable so the trade for Milwaukee is dead right away. Quero isn't ready to be a starting catcher in the big leagues. He still hasn't seen AAA. The Brewers aren't going to trade Contreras who is their best hitter, for a guy who may not be good enough to catch in the big leagues. Williams was the NL reliever of the year and leaves the bull pen minus anybody to close. Milwaukee is loaded with OFs and wouldn't want Kelenic. The Brewers are trying to extend Adames so Young isn't needed in a trade like this.

kurteger

Here's the problem, your rotation isn't better with Burnes because he already said he won't extend, so you'll be losing him for nothing. Grayson Rodriguez is a potential ace with 6 years of control, if you think 1 year of Corbin Burnes is better than 6 years of the best starting prospect in baseball entering 2023, you're nuts. On top of that, Woodruff being let go due to injury, thins out an already shorthanded rotation. Hancock > nothing. So yes, this makes your rotation very strong, much stronger than 1 year of a guy who doesn't want to be there and the circus that will follow him.

kurteger

Your team is hitting the reset, like it or not, you guys aren't going to try and compete again until 2025 probably unless a lot breaks right for you, and unless some of the young players the Brewers acquire are able to breakout early. So having a closer means nothing. Devin Williams is great, which is why he'd be a good fit for Seattle, but who cares about closing out games in Milwaukee when you guys are going to have a losing record?! The Reds are more talented, the Cubs will be deeper, and the Cardinals will be more talented and experienced. My guess is the Brewers are lucky if they outlast the Pirates unless Reynolds and Hayes get traded or they aren't able to add the arms they need for their rotation in Pittsburgh.

kurteger

Now let's look at your outfield, you currently have a guy exiting his prime making around $25M/year (Yelich) for the next half decade, a guy who isn't even ready for the majors making $10M/year (Chourio),then there's an unproven outfielder yet to find MLB success (Frelick), a defense first player who might not even make the 26-man roster (Wiemer), and a guy running a 35.6% K-rate (Mitchell) while heading into his age 25 season with only 141 MLB plate appearances over his two years in the majors. Kelenic, by comparison at a year younger (age 23 season) was running a 31.7% and part of that was due to his return from self-inflicted injury. That's a significant difference. You have outfielders, the problem is they're young, they're old, or they suck.

kurteger

You may want to keep Contreras, but the Brewers already said everyone is available. If they were going to compete, Counsell wouldn't have left for Chicago, so you need to accept reality. Also, Contreras is never going to be more valuable than right now, because of the dearth of catching, his talent, his age, etc., but if you can get Harry Ford in return for him, you're gaining 2-3 more years of elite young catching that better fits your window to compete. Trading a catcher, a one-year rental ace, and a two-year rental closer, and getting 30+ years of control over three elite prospects at catcher, middle-infield, and starting pitcher, plus a young outfielder that's breaking out, and a former 6th overall draft pick who worse case becomes a high-leverage reliever.

kurteger

Where do you get they are trying to extend Adames?! He's coming off a bad year, he's already expensive and only getting more expensive. Plus, he's not going to be worth anything after 2024, when his defense declines (he's arm over footspeed already), his contract goes up in value, and he really doesn't profile at 3B offensively, especially for a budget conscious team like Milwaukee. Brewer Fanatic wrote an editorial essentially saying the same thing (link below), then this past February Willy Adames himself appeared to admit he wouldn't sign a contract extension (also linked), so a year closer to free agency isn't going to motivate him more than last offseason. Finally, Reviewing the Brew said on Oct. 6th, it's clear there'll be no extension for Burnes or Adames (again linked)! I don't know what you're trying to sell, but your take is horrible, and the fact that everyone hates the trade for their team, means it's a great offer. Consensus hatred or love is the clearest form of equality in a trade. By the way, you guys have no offense, your only good hitters were Yelich and Contreras. It's the reason you guys couldn't win a playoff game despite winning 92 games, because you played in a soft division in a down year, but you guys need huge changes to compete moving forward.

kurteger

https://brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/milwaukee-brewers/do-the-brewers-need-to-accept-a-step-back-in-2024-r1642/

kurteger

https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/brewers-news-willy-adames-appears-to-admit-contract-extension-won-t-happen

kurteger

https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/brewers-rumors-two-top-nl-teams-have-had-trade-interest-in-willy-adames

NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!