Padres & Yankees

Submitted by: johnbitzer

Real Trade

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Padres

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Kyle Higashioka34MajorsCMedium14.12.31.81.41.82.1
Michael King29MajorsRPMedium239.96.533.426.733.440.1
Randy Vasquez24MajorsSP615.79.75.94.75.97.1
Jhony Brito25MajorsSP613.28.34.93.94.95.9
Drew Thorpe22MinorsSP000118.81113.3

Total Value:

57

Yankees

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Trent Grisham27MajorsCFMedium222.412.310.18.110.112.1
Juan Soto25MajorsOFMedium156.83323.819.123.828.6

Total Value:

33.9

General Manager Badge
johnbitzer

This one was technically rejected by our model, as it's too much of an overpay by NYY. It effectively values one year of Soto at roughly $80M in field value -- way beyond any reasonable precedent.

Timmer

Most Yankee fans like the trade. Soto is just what they needed, and he and Judge together will be must-see. They pretty much had to overpay; they got their man. Hey, John Sterling: "Open a can of Soto pop!"

TheWestCoastRyan

The Yankees also get to QO Soto after the season. Obviously that isn't worth $23m but it's definitely a factor.

AmaralFan1

This is true, but because the Yankees are paying the luxury tax, it will be after the 4th round. If they also sign a player with a QO, they'll forfeit the compensation pick. Same thing happened to the Nats when Harper signed with Philadelphia.

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johnbitzer

Yeah, because of that, it's only worth about $2M, so not much of a needle-mover.

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Ms. Dajuba

So what do the Yankees do with Soto, 14 years $500m? I think Grisham gets flipped, maybe even Grisham and Verdugo in a package

acarter13

Grisham and Verdugo are a part of the 2024 plan. They had absolutely no outfield depth last year. IKF, our 2022 starting shortstop, was our 2023 center fielder for like 2 months. Bauers, Mckinney, and Florial played far too much. Grisham and Verdugo are a massive upgrade over what we had last year. I doubt Soto signs an extension since he's a Boras client, but it definitely would have to be in the 500M+ range.

Timmer

Florial hasn't played enough, actually. He's a good defensive CF and hasn't had enough ABs to decide whether he can do the job offensively or not.

BillBurrIsGod

Florial had a .945 OPS at AAA last year, someone just has to give him regular reps. Why won't the Yankees? Oh right, they hate rookies who aren't a certain skin color with a venomous passion!

acarter13

Florial strikes out 30% of the time in AAA for 3 straight years. Stats in the minors do not matter AT ALL to teams, underlying metrics do.

pezzicle

Trade is totally fine for Soto, your valuation on him is just off. he's projected for 6.8 WAR in new York. Judge signed for a 9/360M deal with a projected 35 WAR at the time. That's 10.3M per WAR. Even using that cost valuation on Soto, that's 70M in value with a 33M cost. 37M They get a marginal QO and he absolutely gets the "superstar tax" so pegging him at 40M value is totally reasonable. Grisham takes it to 50M and the return is now totally fine

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johnbitzer

... except for the fact that no team in history has ever paid that much for one year of any player -- so there's theory, then there's reality. There's an upper limit in the low 40s in monetary costs (the Scherzer/Verlander AAVs were the pinnacle). So our field value estimate of $57M in total capital for one year seemed excessively high from that perspective already.

pezzicle

Yup, and the Scherzer/Verlander contracts were for 1) a pitcher; and 2) 3 year deals. The issue is that we are looking at AAV comps for contracts that aren't 1 year, because no one in the sport has ever signed a 1 year deal as an elite player who isn't injured in some capacity. If Soto were to sign a 3 year deal, how much would a team pay him per year? 50M? 60? We have no idea nor do we have a basis to figure it out. But he is on a 1 year deal. That changes things considerably. From a cost per WAR basis, he should be valued at 40M, and it looks like the Yankees did just that.

Timmer

Judge and Soto back to back (or Soto and Judge, depending on how the Yankees want to do it) will be must-see and a dynamic duo for the Yankees, and they will make each other even better.

downbaddav

zips projects him for 5.8

pezzicle

In San Diego He will have a better projection in NY because he will likely hit for more power given how much Petco suppressed LHH power and how much Yankee stadium helps it.

tradegod__18

I agree.

queensburykid

Cashman is spending money like a mad man. The Yankees will have to try to extend Soto. Are the Yankees becoming the new Mets?

seNortortas

"The Yankees are becoming the Yankees of baseball"

centerwingpolitics

They could have just gotten Kepler for less and kept the prospects. Sign Soto in free agency

Timmer

Kepler is older and not nearly the player Soto is. Soto is on a Hall of Fame track, and Yankee Stadium should maximize him. NOw, if you want to argue Kepler in preference to Verdugo, you might have a point.

jakerivera24

you obviously dont watch the MLB @Centerwingpolitics

GOAT91

Despite what the model says, I think the Padres should have gotten way more. Yankees made out like bandits, in my opinion. No way Michael King, regardless of how many years of control he comes with, is as valuable as one full year of the greatest LH hitter since Barry Bonds. The catcher is just a body, and the prospect will turn out to be trash like Blake Rutherford, Justus Sheffield, and all the other bums Cashman has shipped out over the years because their scouting and development is terrible.

gwaza

Doesn't sound like a very objective take on the situation. King is a good pitcher, Higashoika is an awesome defender, and from what I've read, the entire industry seems to think quite highly of Thorpe. Soto is great, but in addition to being a rental, he's owed $33m. Not a ton of surplus value there

pezzicle

not a ton of surplus value? He has an 6.8 WAR projection in NY. Guys of his caliber get 10M or more per WAR on the open market. He easily has 40M in surplus value

Timmer

King looks like he's going to be a very good pitcher, and SD had to replace 650 innings with no money to spare. Brito and Vasquez are nice back of the rotation options. Thorpe is probably a year away, but is a top 100 prospect. Higgy is a very good defensive catcher (and framer.)

mp2891

I agree with this sentiment. Yankees traded surplus value but not difference makers, while the Padres traded a difference maker. I'd also be scared to death that King blows out his arm if he's asked to pitch 175 IP next year. Without King, this trade is a total dud for San Diego.

elurz

Bad luck dealt San Diego a bad hand which they definitely maximized (given the surplus value). Their local broadcaster went bankrupt, so suddenly very needed revenue wasn’t there. If the same happened to the Rays it would be a Marlins style panic firesale. I like this trade for both.

mp2891

I don't mind the King part of the trade. King is potentially more risky than he appears from a health standpoint if they're planning to turn him into a full time starter, but that's fine. As a former Bucs coach once said - No risk-it, no biscuit. It's the back of rotation prospect arms with little upside that has me thinking this trade isn't as good as it's being made out. But to your point, you make do with what you have, and if the Padres had to reverse course from a $250MM organization to a $175MM - $200MM organization overnight, then cheap MLB talent is needed (even if their upside is very limited).

Timmer

Thorpe is a top 100 prospect and Brito and Vasquez are rotation depth.

JYD23

Thorpe was literally awarded the Minor League Pitching Prospect of the Year for 2023.

mp2891

LOL... It's just a recognition of a pitcher who had a really good year. More often than not the pitcher who wins these awards doesn't project all that well in the Majors.

Cashfraud

Tough to see both Brito and Vasquez go, would have played a big role this year. Brito is more polished now and Vasquez has some real upside with upper 90's and 6 pitches.

gwaza

Pretty steep price NY had to pay, but what the hell. I like this for both teams

jlombardo09

Yankees got fleeced in terms of surplus value, but got a significant increase in field value, which clearly is all they care about in this deal. And that’s ok, IMO. They were always going to have to overpay, since it was a bidding war. Perhaps they did so a little too much, but if it results in wins this year, I’m sure they’ll be fine with it.

mp2891

Yankees were also a bit desperate. Their offense was Judge and not much else. Team wRC+ of 94 last year, ranking #19 in the Majors. Team offense fWAR ranking #20 in the Majors. That's not what Yankee fans want to see. Now they just need to fix their pitching...

winnow

if nyy get yamamoto this deal becomes more reasonable in context

gwaza

Even if it’s a pitcher in the Marcus Stroman tier, I think it makes sense. After giving up so much pitching depth, they could use a more sure fire workhorse like Stroman

AussieGiants53

Kinda feel it was an overpay but with the Yankees being the Yankees, not making the post season last year has turned the heat up. A move that they felt they had to make. Good for both sides. MLB Pipeline love Drew Thorpe

icdavis882

King is the real loss for the Yankees. If it was Schmidt instead, I think it would be a justifiable overpay.

icdavis882

if you consider it an overpay at all, that is.

Timmer

Thorpe may be the real loss.

JYD23

Schmidt has 4 years of control and isn't likely to be on an innings limits like King, who hasn't thrown anywhere near 150 innings since 2018. He isn't as good as King, obviously, but he was fairly decent for a back end starter from mid-May on (4.08 ERA).

SanDiegoKid

As a Padres fan, grats to the Yankees. Only a few teams who will sign him to an extension and truth be told, he just feels like a Yankee to me. Think the shoe fits for both sides. On another note, our GM needs to be fired. How a GM bungles his biggest trade in his life by handing contracts to Xander, Crone, Darvish, Carpenter thus making it impossible for this organization to meet the needs is beyond me.

Rob21

All of those contracts were handed out last year while Sielder's health was failing. He knew his time was short and wanted to do everything possible to win a World Series ASAP. Preller was likely under pressure or advised to sign/extend those players. Don't get me wrong, Preller has made some terrible trades, but he has also made some great ones and some amazing free-agent signings. Wacha and Lugo were excellent signings just last year, and don't forget we essentially traded Patino, Bednar, and Davies for Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove. I'm more concerned about the number of managers Preller has gone through rather than his ability to assess and acquire talent. This looks like a decent return in an area of need for Soto who wasn't going to sign an extension and was unlikely to resign in the offseason. If he was going to walk at the end of the year, it makes sense to trade for players who can help win now and in the future to keep our window open longer rather than receiving a compensatory pick. As a fellow Padres fan I was underwhelmed with Soto. Too many times in clutch situations he would either walk or ground out when we needed a sac fly or hit, not to mention his fielding and base running. He only caught fire at the end of the season when we were essentially eliminated from postseason contention.

SanDiegoKid

Have to agree to disagree. While I have no doubt Seidler wanted to win ASAP, that has no bearing on the extensions of Cronenworth or Darvish, let alone handing that awful contract to Carpenter. I might give a pass on Xander, but if you were to ask Padre fans if they wanted to Xander or Juan long term the answer to that would be obvious. I'm not going to soil Seidler's passing thinking "I know what he was thinking", because I don't. And there is NO WAY I would ever sit here and defend Preller, ever. 9 Years into this, and he is straight awful.

Rob21

I think that's a shortsighted take and you are worried about the wrong contracts. The Machado extension and Xander contract are the real concern looking forward. Regardless of payroll, Soto made it clear he was going walk (no pun intended), and it was unlikely he would resign in free agency. Trading him for controllable assets makes sense. Don't forget Soto's comments about quitting last year and that BoMel wanted Soto traded. Soto can fill a scorecard better than anyone, but when it comes to doing the little things that win games like baserunning, advancing runners, and sacrificing, he seems unwilling. He would rather take a borderline pitch to get another walk (and sometimes strike out looking) than put the ball into play when the team needed him to. Then, once he draws that walk forget about him stealing or going 1st to 3rd. I agree, most fans would want Juan long-term over Bogarets, but that was never a choice since he is going to free agency. And at what price and how long of a contract would it be if he did resign? How soon until he's a DH who hinders not only your lineup but also your payroll flexibility? Yes, last year was disappointing, but 14 months ago this team was in the NLCS and Preller was the GM who constructed that roster with many of the same players who are still on it.

Timmer

Would you trade CJ Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, Luke Voit, and Trent Grisham for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, and two months of Josh Bell?

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johnbitzer

Fun question, but Soto had 2.5 years of control at that time, and now has only 1, so there's no equivalence.

Rob21

Exactly, and hindsight is 20/20. Since the Padres were uncompetitive last year their trade for Soto looks worse. If they had made a deep playoff run or won the WS with Soto playing any sort of meaningful role, Preller would look like a genius and in most fan's view wins the trade with the Nats. But to get to the heart of that question, the Padres overpaid for Soto in '22 and now the Yankees have overpaid in '23. I was not a fan of the trade in '22, it looked like we gave up a lot, and we did.

acarter13

Yankees got a LOT better with this trade. King is a big loss, but he's pretty risky as a starter. Hasn't had a big workload innings wise in a while, but could very well turn into a great #2 for the Padres. Drew Thorpe has an incredible changeup and if he can get a bit more out of his fastball, he could be a stud. Yankees getting Soto and Grisham for the outfield helps the lineup so much. Juan Soto is Juan Soto, don't really nee to elaborate on him... I don't think Grisham or Verdugo get flipped either. They actually make a pretty great platoon, with Verdugo crushing righties and Grisham surprisingly hitting lefties well. Keep in mind, Billy McKinney, IKF, Jake Bauers, and Estevan Florial all played a LOT of outfield last year. They finally have good depth for the outfield.

Timmer

I think King slots at #3 for the Padres.

Cashfraud

He is their best starter, but yes based on lack of a real starter workload thus far he will be #3

queensburykid

Why does this trade involve so much short-time talent for both sides? Why did the Padres want King? I would they would want longer controllable players. The Yankees are overpaying one year of Soto. It is going to take a huge contract to keep Soto. The Yankees have other hole so are they going just to throw more money for those holes? Frankly, this trade is confusing me for both sides' objectives.

Rob21

Padres want King because he has great Stuff+ and last year had the 4th lowest ERA for pitchers who threw over 100 innings. The only question is his health. They can immediately plug him in as their #3 to replace Snell. Thorpe, Vasquez, and Brito all have 6 years of control and help solidify the back end of the rotation and bullpen. Yankees trade for Soto now with the plan on extending/resigning. They also get a compensatory pick if he does not sign their QO. Trading for him now gives them a leg up in negotiations and to see if he is a good fit before committing +500 MM.

TheWestCoastRyan

Trading for Soto now doesn't give the Yankees any leg up in negotiations! People said the same crap when the Padres traded for Soto and it wasn't true then either.

mp2891

Perspective from a Non-Padres/Yankees Fan - The Padres have a limited window of contention. The Bogaerts and Machado deals (along with the smaller Darvish and Cronenworth deals) are going to age very bad fast and are eventually going to hamstring their efforts to field a playoff caliber team, much like the Angels' situation over the past few years. They are also under some sort of league mandated obligation to get spending down to the $200MM level, which limits their ability to replace guys like Snell and Hader through free agency. So they are rolling the dice on the short term, high upside King in this trade in part because he is cheap (while hedging their short-term bets with the long-term Thorpe). BTV assumes King will only make $6.5MM the next 2 years, which is a pittance compared to what #3 pitchers make on the open market. The risk of course is whether King can hold up throwing starter level innings and whether his stuff will look as good over 6-7 innings every 5 games, instead of 1-2 innings as a reliever. It's very doubtful that his numbers from last year (3.53 xERA, 3.13 FIP, 3.37 xFIP) hold up as well under a starter's workload. Then when his 2 years are up, the Padres must be hoping their top pitching prospects will be ready to overhaul their rotation (guys like Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Mazur and Iriarte). As for the Yankees, this is an all-in "please don't fire me" move by Cashman, who most likely won't survive another year as GM if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs and look as noncompetitive as they did in 2023 (#20 offense and #21 pitching).

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