Brewers & Red Sox
Submitted by: JHB
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 28 | Majors | LRP | SP | Low | 4 | 45.6 | 23.6 | 22.1 | 17.7 | 22.1 | 26.5 |
| Mikey Romero | 19 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5 | ||
| Roman Anthony | 19 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41.8 | 33.4 | 41.8 | 50.1 |
Total Value:
68.1
Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 29 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1 | 48.9 | 15.1 | 33.8 | 27 | 33.8 | 40.5 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 21 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.4 | 19.6 | 24.4 | 29.3 |
Total Value:
58.20
Comments
15
In return for Burnes and Misiorowski (a bottom-half of the rotation SP who'll be ready in 2024/25), the Brewers get a stud prospect in Anthony, talented but misused in Boston Tanner Houck, and former first round pick Romero. The Red Sox overpay, but that'll be the only way to get Burnes.
Brewers laugh at the Red Sox joke and again tell them no thanks. The Brewers get no starting pitching back so the deal is dead right away. Milwaukee looks at Misiorowski as a mid to top end starter and wouldn't trade him for either Boston teenager. The Brewers don't want teenagers in any trade for pitching. The absolute last thing they would want is teenage outfielders. They are loaded with talented, young outfielders. They don't want Houck, a long man. Dajuba I think you have been overdoing the eggnog a bit if you really believe that about Anthony. Last I checked Chourio (an OF) was #2 and Misiorowski was #36 on the MLB top 100 prospects list.
jmont1, I look at your comment next to Ms. Dajuba's and I chuckle. You say it's too much for the Brewers to give up; she says it's too much for the Red Sox to give up. By BTV's algorithm, it's a clear win for the Brewers, but I thought Boston would have to overpay for Burnes in this market. Regarding Houck, almost 80% of his work in MLB has been as a starter. He has pitched 33 games in relief, earning nine saves, two holds, and, amazingly, just one blown save. He was pressed into the closer role briefly, and he did well. He's a proven MLB starter, with career xERA, FIP, and xFIP numbers all a bit under 4.00. The Brewers would need a starter for Burnes. Houck would give them four years' starting pitching for around $25 million. Misiorowski had a higher ERA in AA than Houck had in MLB, and FanGraphs grades him as only FV 45. Six future years of Misiorowski look a lot like the next four years of Houck, but with a lower floor and a higher ceiling. I think that you underestimate the two minor leaguers included. You say that the Brewers have plenty of outfielders, but Anthony would be the Brewers' top prospect by a 2:1 margin (per BTV) if Chourio were promoted. Mikey Romero would be the Brewers' top middle infield prospect.
JHB: In any trade you can't just look at the SV, you have to look at how the trade fits both teams. If Milwaukee got 5 OFs whose SV exceeded that of Burnes, BTV's algorithm would say the Brewers got the better deal. In reality it would be a horrible trade for Milwaukee. In this trade I see Houck as what he was last year. 5.01 ERA, 4.43 FIP, almost as many hits as IPs. A BOR starter and the Brewers have enough of those. Not the type of guy the Brewers would want in a trade for Burnes. Misiorowski's ERA ballooned at AA because the Brewers had him working on a change-up and reshaping his breaking ball. Then throwing those pitches more. As far as Romero goes, he is only a teegager and SV on teenagers changes quickly as they see better pitching. Milwaukee wouldn't want him as part of a trade for pitching. The Brewers have three former top 100 outfielders in their second year in 2024. Add Chourio and that's 4 young, talented OFs with a couple more coming up. Plus they have Yelich firmly entrenched in LF so that leaves only two spots for 4 guys. Outfield is their strength and pitching is their weakness by far. It makes no sense to further weaken your biggest need just to add a teenage prospect to your biggest strength.
"In reality it would be a horrible trade for Milwaukee. In this trade I see Houck as what he was last year." Houck had a freak injury with a line drive to the face last year. His FIP and xFIP went up about two-thirds of a run after his return, and his BABIP jumped 36 points (harder contact). I'm using FIP here; his ERA was inflated by Cora's terrible defensive lineups. Houck is roughly a 4.00 ERA starting pitcher or a sub-3.00 relief pitcher, not a 5.00 spot starter. In terms of this not being what the Brewers need, Houck takes Burnes's place in the rotation, Romero develops in the lower minors (remember, first round draft pick), and Roman Anthony is the Brewers' top prospect when Chourio comes up. Anthony is the 87th-best contract in MLB per BTV; for contrast, Dylan Cease is 91st. Any team could use that talent.
So basically make excuses for your own teams players…..
Well B2W, if you're talking about defense excuses, the Brewers were 88 runs better than the Red Sox by defensive runs saved (Source: Fangraphs). That's about a half run a game difference, lowering Burnes's apparent value and increasing Houck's significantly. The rest I've backed up with stats. I don't know if Burnes will be traded, but if he is, I rather suspect that the return will be less than I've postulated here. We'll see.
If before the trade Boston is sure they can extend Burnes, then Burnes's value goes up. The Brewers ask for Casas. Put him in the lineup for the next 5 - 6 years at a position of need and I think from a Brewers perspective, that is a good trade for a pitcher they will lose to free agency. With the money saved by not paying Burnes this year, plus the $7MM they saved in Houser/Taylor trade, I would hope they could add to the rotation in free agency and/or trading an OF for a good starting pitcher, with some control. Boston makes the big splash and gets a #1 pitcher for as long as they sign him for. ( 7 - 8 years)
If Burnes won't sign a long-term deal, this trade wouldn't happen. Also, I think Casas is untouchable.
I think both arguments are correct and prob the reason why Burnes hasn’t and won’t be moved. Milly isn’t getting a prospect the level of Anthony when Burnes is set to hit free agency, but they should still be able to get decent pitching prospects in a return deal.
Tanner Houck isn't a decent pitching prospect? He's a proven success in a tough ballpark with the guts to come back from a terrible head injury last season. Burnes's trade value will go up if he signs long-term? The only 2023/24 free agent ace I could find who's been reevaluated by BTV is Nola, who's worth 17.1...half of what Burnes is worth right now with a "low" salary year left. And Casas is worth 50% more than Burnes. I factored in an overpayment to the Brewers, but 50% over value is far too much. Burnes was worth 78 last offseason, IIRC. With just one low-cost year left, and his being a year older, his value has dropped. Yes, the Brewers could choose to gamble on a pitcher, but expecting a young Burnes now in return for one year of the old Burnes is too much, and pitchers often struggle in the jump to MLB.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Once again, the Red Sox tell the Brewers that if the Red Sox want Burnes they'll sign him as free agent next year, not trade for him this year. Jackson Chourio & Jacob Misiorowski combined couldn’t get Anthony.
Ms. Dajuba, I'd expect Breslow to ask for bargaining rights for 36-48 hours as a condition of making the trade, and to get Burnes signed before giving up Anthony. But Breslow and John Henry need to do something big right now to preserve their fan base. Henry's been gun-shy since Dombrowski wasted hundreds of millions of dollars to win in 2018. Tom Werner said "full throttle," but Henry has the final veto power, and the Red Sox are doing almost nothing. The Red Sox are third in revenue in MLB, between the Dodgers and the Cubs, and they're being more frugal than the Royals. This is how the Red Sox got Pedro and Schilling: trading for an ace near free agency and locking him up long term. It's time to try it again.
Burnes is going for free agency, he’s basically come right out and said it. In my opinion, it makes zero sense for the Red Sox to trade for him.
If it's the absolute truth, sure. But it may be a bargaining position. If the Red Sox already have Montgomery, Bello, Sale, and four pitchers battling for a rotation spot, Burnes could do worse than pitching in Fenway with a bunch of young talent coming up by 2025...and you can't ask the question without making the contingent trade, as the Dodgers did with Glasnow. I'll tell you this: from a risk perspective, Burnes is far better off locking in on a Yamamoto/Cole-sized deal now. Betcha he'd take a fair offer.