Angels & Rays & Padres
Submitted by: mp2891
Angels
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | 30 | Majors | RP | Medium | 3 | 36.8 | 14.3 | 22.5 | 18 | 22.5 | 27 | |
| Jake Cronenworth | 30 | Majors | UTIL | Low | 7 | 57.6 | 78 | -20.4 | -24.4 | -20.4 | -16.3 |
Total Value:
2.10
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis, Jr. | 25 | Majors | OF | SS | Very low | 13 | 479.5 | 346.6 | 132.8 | 106.3 | 132.8 | 159.4 |
| Ben Joyce | 22 | Majors | RP | 6 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
Total Value:
135.60
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 76.2 | 42.8 | 33.5 | 26.8 | 33.5 | 40.1 | |
| Osleivis Basabe | 23 | Majors | SS | 6 | 15.3 | 4.4 | 11 | 8.8 | 11 | 13.1 | ||
| Yandy Diaz | 32 | Majors | 1B | Low | 3 | 90.5 | 30 | 60.5 | 48.4 | 60.5 | 72.6 | |
| Mason Montgomery | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
Total Value:
110.8
Comments
8Just messing around with the possibilities. Tatis would offer the Rays a serious option to replace Franco at SS if necessary, and if not necessary, he can play in the outfield. Trading for him requires the Rays part with Y.Diaz, who fills a HUGE need in San Diego, R.Arozarena, who also fills a HUGE need in San Diego (which was made worse by trading Tatis), and two young prospects in AAA infield utility man O.Basabe and AAA pitching prospect M.Montgomery. San Diego also parts with Cronenworth, which they've said they wish to do to cut salary. This deal saves the Padres money in 2024 while getting better overall (swapping 5.4 fWAR (in 2023) for 8.0 fWAR), and adds 2 young top prospects who can help immediately if needed. From the Angels standpoint, they take on an infield utility man best suited for 2B with an upside down contract, but who can be a 4 fWAR player at 2B, and get the Rays' closer for essentially free by doing so. Everyone gets better for this trade.
It took me half of an hour to see whats going on in this trade
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
LOL. I wish the site made folks comment before giving a thumbs up or down to a post. I don’t think this trade is likely, but I see it as being absolutely in the Padres best interest and sort of in the Angels best interest. I don’t love it for the Rays though because (a) Tatis hit for shit last year (relatively speaking) and I worry that might be something he repeats, and (b) I don’t think the Rays can carry both Franco and Tatis long term, and we don’t know how Franco’s situation is going to resolve. That said, the Padres sorta kinda have to get their shit together quick. They signed Tatis, Boegarts, Machado, Darvish, Cronenworth, etc to big money contracts when they thought they had the revenue to support them. The revenue won’t be what they expected though, and now they are stuck with a bunch of declining players on huge deals and instead of shoring up team weaknesses, they are trading moveable assets. First to go was Soto. Tatis could be next. Hell, it might make sense to move Tatis to unload some salary and also improve the roster over all (like in this trade). I see the Padres window slamming shut in 2-3 years. They better move quick.
You notice how that number behind Tatis' name is really high. That means he's the Padres far and away best asset. He's also their best season ticket seller, their best hope to be an MVP, etc - oh and he's like 25. But sure. The padres best interest is to trade him for a 32 year old 1b and a 29 year old outfielder.
Sarcasm aside, do you think the Padres make the playoffs next year? The Padres have HUGE holes at 1B/DH, CF and LF, and their pitching staff has some big question marks too. They didn't make the playoffs last year with a better team. Maybe Tatis returns to a 150 wRC+ bat, Machado doesn't mail it in in a non-contract year, and the pitching staff doesn't fall off too much without a Cy Young winner and arguably the best closer in baseball, but I'm not optimistic. Losing Soto, Snell and Hader is a tough pill to swallow. Worse, beginning in 2027, Tatis, Machado, Boegarts and Darvish will eat up $105MM annually and 3 of those guys will be mid to late 30 years old. Machado looks like a bum in waiting, performing well only in contract years and having -$133MM trade value according to BTV today. Sure, the Padres can fill out the rest of the roster with $90MM or so and keep payroll in the $200MM range, but the margin for error will be small and they'll probably have underperforming players in Machado, Boegarts, and Darvish dragging down the team on the field. Next thing you know, the Padres are the Angels and Tatis is referred to in the same manner as Trout. Obviously, it is easier to toe the line and maintain the status quo, but I think the Padres window is closing fast.
As you say, while it's "fun trade" the financials only help for the next two years. Aroz/ Fairbanks/Diaz cancel out Tatis/Cronenworth for 2024 and 2025 (with likely arbitration of 20 million for Aroz). And who knows how the ex-Pads will perform?Tatis/Cronenworth will still be making 33 million in 2026, (when Diaz/Fairbanks contracts would have ended for the Rays (and Aroz never makes his 4th arbitration year). Rays will still owe Tatis /Cronenworth a combined 38 million for each of the following two years(27/28). Of course they will never finish their contract with the Rays, who would likely move them well before that... and if possible. Franco's big salary begins kicking in 2025 (8 million) and than escalates quickly to 45 over the next three years further burdening their payroll if he does stick around. Rays won't have to pay him a dime though if he never plays for them as insurance money or clauses will cover anything that may be owed.
Budman - This trade has Cronenworth going to the Angels, not the Rays. But overall, you're right about 1 thing, the Rays can't afford both Franco and Tatis long term. That may not be an issue with reports coming out of the DR these days.
Oooops! Which is why I generally don't propose or spend much time going through three team trades.