Rays & Mariners
Submitted by: csolovey
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 108.1 | 42.1 | 65.9 | 52.7 | 65.9 | 79.1 | |
| Alberto Rodriguez | 22 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | ||
| Michael Arroyo | 0 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 |
Total Value:
76.4
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 76.2 | 42.8 | 33.5 | 26.8 | 33.5 | 40.1 | |
| Yandy Diaz | 32 | Majors | 1B | Low | 3 | 90.5 | 30 | 60.5 | 48.4 | 60.5 | 72.6 |
Total Value:
94
Comments
12With mariners news surrounding James Paxton, do the Ms make a trade for these two bats? Gives the Rays young top end controlled starter and relieves the rays of cap spending? Rays have made more surprising trades than this.
There is almost no chance the Rays trade Randy and Yandy in the same trade, particularly for essentially 1 pitcher who could suffer TJS tomorrow. This trade also leaves 30% of the Rays players' value on the table, so it's a complete no-go. I do think the Rays and Mariners agree on a trade for Aroz at some point this offseason that has 1 of Brash, Woo or Miller as the headliner in return. I'd personally love to get Celesten in that deal. With the Franco situation, Rays need to start stockpiling high upside SS prospects. We will see.
Logan gilbert has proved to be incredibly healthy during the Minors and his majors career with high innings totals, complete opposite of the guys they have in their rotation RN. And I could def see Cole young instead of maybe Arroyo in this trade.
That may be, but if you follow the Rays closely you know they follow certain rules. This trade breaks many of their rules. They don't trade FOR players that cost more than $20-25MM. They don't trade multiple high value trade assets in one deal. They almost never trade for guys with less than 5 years of control. When they overpay for a player, it's because they know a player's untapped potential is much more than the marginal trade value the market in general is giving them, not like here where Gilbert has tremendous trade value. Plus, we're not talking about overpaying for Nellie or Civale in a playoff race. We're talking about trading away nearly 8 Wins annually and $100MM in trade value. Most importantly, a trade for Gilbert would only make sense if the Rays believed they needed a front line starter to make waves in the playoffs, but with the Franco situation, it's not even likely the Rays make the playoffs in 2024. Sorry, but I just can't see this trade even being the starting point for an actual deal.
Gilbert will make less than 7m this year
Not sure why that's your response to my post, but I'll play along. Rays almost never trade for guys with less than 5 years of control for this reason. Gilbert is projected to make about $5MM in 2024 by MLBTR, which means he'd probably be traded before the 26 season for salary reasons when he'd be making between $15-20MM. Just another reason why the Rays aren't interested in Gilbert. A 2 year rental when their 2024 season is going to be a reset year? I don't think so.
I think if the Mariners move SP it will be because of having to shed payroll. In that case I think one of Castillo or Ray gets moved. Not any of the others that are young and under control like Gilbert. But in the real unlikely case that Gilbert is moved to the Rays I think it would be: Mariners get; Randy Arozarena OF 33.5 and Osleivis Basabe SS 11.0. Total Value: 44.50. Rays get; Logan Gilbert SP 65.9 in a major overpay by the Mariners to get 2 bats to add to their lineup.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Usually, the other team is the one of overpaying in a Rays trade, so I’d expect that they’d want more. I’d love this deal on the M’s side, especially if we could flip France somewhere (maybe for Polanco on the Twins). However, I think Randy, Yandy and Paxton/Cease might be too expensive in terms of salary for the M’s (even with Gilbert and France heading out).
An M’s lineup of 1. JP 2. Julio 3. Yandy 4. Randy 5. Garver 6. Polanco 7. Cal 8. Canzone 9. Urias would be the best the team has had since 2001 though. With a rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Cease/Paxton, Woo, Miller and Ray still being elite, especially with Munoz, Brash and Topa leading the pen.
I suppose it depends on your definition of surprising. I can't think of a trade that would even come close to the surprise from this trade. Surprise 1 - The Rays don't consolidate assets for expensive additions. Surprise 2 - The Rays don't trade for expensive pitchers like Gilbert. Surprise 3 - The Rays don't often leave this much trade value on the table, and when they do it's because they really like the players they are trading for (but it's hard to see the Rays loving Gilbert so much that they think he's undervalued to this degree). Add in the Franco situation and it's really hard to see the logic in this trade.
Gilbert cost 1/3 of Randy’s contract alone
I'm not following. Are you talking salary? I'm talking trade cost.