Nationals & Rays
Submitted by: mp2891
Nationals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 29 | Majors | 2B | Low | 3 | 50.6 | 30.8 | 19.9 | 15.9 | 19.9 | 23.8 |
Total Value:
19.9
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristhian Vaquero | 18 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13.3 | ||
| Travis Sykora | 19 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | ||
| Drew Millas | 25 | Majors | C | 6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.6 |
Total Value:
18.3
Comments
8While I think trading B.Lowe would be a mistake by the Rays, I'm kind of expecting them to do something to shock fans between now and opening day. Lowe is one of the few lefties on the Rays' team, he's still capable of being a 4 Win player, and his trade value is in the dumps because of various injuries. Those are reasons not to trade him. The reasons to trade him are basically the abundance of 2B the Rays have, and the fact that the Rays' OD payroll is on pace to be well over their all-time highest OD payroll. With McClanny, Springs and Rasmussen on IL for all/most of the year and Franco probably done playing baseball, the Rays don't look like a WS winning team right now, so spending the most ever on payroll seems unlikely to me. So out goes B.Lowe and in comes two far away high upside prospects and a switch-hitting catcher the Rays desperately need. For the Nationals, they dramatically improve their 2B position for the next 3 years and they also bring some veteran leadership to a very young team.
What is the point of this trade for Washington?
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Did you read my comment? I said "For the Nationals, they dramatically improve their 2B position for the next 3 years and they also bring some veteran leadership to a very young team." Fangraphs says Luis Garcia will be the Nationals 2B next year. Not to be too blunt, but he sucks, hitting for a career average of 85 wRC+ and averaging -0.2 fWAR per year. Washington does not have any minor leaguers who will be graduating any time soon who will be playing 2B, and even when guys like House and Morales do graduate, they may need a year or two to get their feet under them. Lowe adds a solid lefty bat who is capable of being a 4 WAR player and who is making in the $8-11MM range each of the next 3 years. The Nationals are an up and coming team, but their Farm's strength lies in the outfield. They can afford to trade a teenage COF and far off pitcher to improve the team in the here and now. Sort of like Texas signing Seager and Semien before they were ready to compete.
Citing Garcia's career stats might be misleading when assessing his overall talent level. He's only 23 and was rushed to the MLB during the COVID year despite having not succeed in AA as a teenager. In a normal year and system, he repeats AA. In 2023, he made huge strides in K and BB rates and posted .304/.360/.507 in the last month of the season, after a demotion to AAA. I don't think anyone should buy only a September hot streak, but I also don't think that the Nationals want to give up on a 23 year old who is starting to show some promise. Lowe is a good player and I am sure that other teams would be interested in trading for him. But for the Nationals, I'm not sure that fit is particularly strong as they could probably leverage the money in other areas to greater effect (like SP or 3b) if they were inclined.
Appreciate the info on Garcia. Four years in the Majors and his topline stats don't look like much. If the Nationals are interested in a 3B, the Rays are probably willing to move Paredes and Mead too. Of course, Paredes will cost the Nationals a premium outfield prospect.
Yeah, I definitely wouldn't have a problem moving on from Garcia. I think there is still a reasonable chance that he turns into to an MLB regular, but even then it doesn't look like he's got a huge upside. Over the last two seasons, he has been a middle infielder posting just under league average offense. If he can jump from 95 OPS+ to 105-110 and be a 2023 Jeff McNeil that's a pretty big win for the Nationals given that they have three years of arbitration left.
Garcia has 1200 plate appearances and was basically sent down last year because he was fat and lazy. Time to give up on him.
This is a no brainer for the Nats. They have a 7+ WAR middile infield at stupidly cheap contracts.