Mariners & Pirates & Orioles

Submitted by: kurteger

February 15, 2024

Mariners

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Kyle Bradish	27	Majors	SP		Low	5	105.6	49.6	56.1	44.8	56.1	67.3
Ke'Bryan Hayes	27	Majors	3B		Low	7	71	50	21	16.8	21	25.2
Bryan Reynolds	29	Majors	OF		Low	7	121.5	98	23.5	18.8	23.5	28.2
Jared Jones	22	Minors	SP			0	0	0	12.1	9.7	12.1	14.5
Tyler Wells	29	Majors	SP	LRP	High	3	13.8	11.5	2.3	1.9	2.3	2.8
Dauri Moreta	28	Majors	RP		High	6	12.3	6.5	5.8	4.6	5.8	6.9

Total Value:

120.80

Pirates

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Dylan Moore	31	Majors	UTIL	OF	High	2	8.2	6.8	1.4	1.1	1.4	1.7
Grayson Rodriguez	23	Majors	SP			5	106.3	51.6	54.7	43.8	54.7	65.7
Ramon Urias	31	Majors	UTIL	SS	Medium	3	17.7	10	7.7	6.1	7.7	9.2
Luis Urias	27	Majors	3B	SS	Low	2	13.2	11.8	1.5	1.2	1.5	1.8
Anthony Santander	29	Majors	OF	DH	Medium	1	17.1	11.7	5.4	4.5	5.4	6.3
Walter Ford	19	Minors	SP			0	0	0	2	1.6	2	2.4
Cash											6

Total Value:

78.70

Orioles

Name	Age	Level	P1	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Luis Castillo	31	Majors	SP	Low	5	138.7	116	22.7	18.2	22.7	27.3
Logan Gilbert	27	Majors	SP	Low	4	108.1	42.1	65.9	52.7	65.9	79.1
Quinn Priester	23	Majors	SP		6	30.2	13.9	16.3	13.1	16.3	19.6

Total Value:

104.9

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Comments

kurteger

February 15, 2024 at 10:23 PM

With Bradish having a UCL sprain his trade value should drop. This would free up $11M for the Mariners after dumping the contracts, so they should be able to afford signing Blake Snell, with whom they would need an agreement before completing this deal. The Orioles have Burnes for one season, Means is already being delayed a month, doing the same for Bradish could put the Orioles in a hole they can't climb out of now. Priester gives the Orioles a long term top prospect to makeup for including Grayson Rodriguez, but otherwise they should trade Burnes while they can recoup value and look to 2025, if they aren't willing to make this kind of deal, especially with Henderson also looking like a slow starter to spring. The Mariners would take a small step back in their rotation for a couple months, but the amount of starting depth is scary for the Mariners. If any of their big three gets injured currently, there is nothing to add to the rotation for the Mariners that's even an approximation of Miller and Woo, let alone the guy they'd lose. Jones and Wells have upside and past performances that say they can be steady fill-ins for the Mariners until Bradish is healthy. Snell replaces Castillo, creating a net neutral swap in terms of talent. Once healthy, Bradish is essentially Logan Gilbert with an extra year of control. For Pirates fans, realize that over the last two years Reynolds and Santander have both been exactly a 5.1-5.3 bWAR value with matching 120 wRC+ and below-average fielding. My guess is that Santander could be had for less than what the Pirates owe Reynolds after 2024, which is currently $90M over 6 years. I think they could probably get Santander to sign for $65M/5 years saving the Pirates $25M and 1 year late in their careers. Both outfielders are the same age. While Hayes won a GG in '23, Urias won a GG in '22 with similar offensive potential. In this trade the Pirates add a potential future ace to pair with Skenes as soon as the 2nd half of 2024, they upgrade 2B, and their bench, while actually increasing their fWAR potential by about 3 wins overall for the coming season. The payroll in PIttsburgh increases $4M in 2024, but with Santander and Reynolds being similarly valued players at the same age, this deal essentially adds a team option after the season to Reynolds' deal by allowing them to not commit to Santander until after this season, an option they don't have with Reynolds or Hayes. My other comment is a link to show how similar Reynolds and Santander are over the last two seasons. This trade also accounts for Bradish being worth about 60% of his stated value due to the injury concerns.

kurteger

February 15, 2024 at 10:19 PM

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=santan000ant&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2023&player_id2=reynol000bry&p2yrfrom=2022&p2yrto=2023

OkYepYep

February 16, 2024 at 6:15 AM

An interesting trade. Sounds like full plan would have the Mariners payroll going up 14M this year to get Snell (projected $25M) which doesn't seem possible, and then having a hole in the rotation while waiting for Bradish to get healthy. That's to put a 1 win higher floor on 3B + LF production for the next few years with potential for a big improvement. I think the trade would make more sense (from the Mariners side) if the Mariners get Grayson vs Bradish and dump Haniger instead of getting the other pitching talent back. Then they can sign Snell without increasing payroll and have a full rotation. Not sure either the Pirates or O's would be willing to take on that contract though.

kurteger

February 17, 2024 at 10:53 AM

The thing about Snell is he's Seattle through-and-through with three brothers including a twin that lives in the PNW, along with both his parents, and he's been a Seahawks, UW, Mariners, Sonics (before leaving) fan his whole life. When you consider the money he saves having to keep a second residence in another city during the season, versus living year round in his offseason home, that alone is worth a couple million. He's been willing to take a deal and the Mariners are said to have about $10-12M left to spend, this gets them to $21-23M left to spend for 2024 and they could even carve it lower during the season with a trade by either offloading existing salary or more likely getting the other team to cover all or at least most of the acquired player's 2024 salary as part of the trade. My guess is they could probably do a long-term deal with Snell that's slightly backloaded or includes a little deferred money, so the dollar figure fulfills the expectations set by Boras. Say $16M in 2024 and $22M/season for 2025-2029 to equal $126M/6 years. If they did a deferred amount they might go as high as $150M/6 years, but it would pay $18M/year with $42M deferred until starting in 2030, where they'd pay him $6M/season for 7 years. I'd probably go for the first option, it would leave $5-7M to add to the roster at the trade deadline, which could be a $15-20M/year player, especially if they could get the other team to throw some cash into the deal around the deadline.

Mariners & Pirates & Orioles

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