Mariners & Diamondbacks & Pirates

Submitted by: kurteger

March 17, 2024

Mariners

Name	Age	Level	P1	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Ke'Bryan Hayes	27	Majors	3B	Low	7	71	50	21	16.8	21	25.2
Corbin Carroll	23	Majors	OF	Low	7	219.7	108.8	111	88.8	111	133.2
Dauri Moreta	28	Majors	RP	High	6	5	3.9	1.1	0.8	1.1	1.4
Cash										6

Total Value:

139.1

Diamondbacks

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Sam Haggerty	30	Majors	2B	OF	Medium	3	6.8	4	2.8	2.2	2.8	3.3
Bryan Reynolds	29	Majors	OF		Low	7	121.5	98	23.5	18.8	23.5	28.2
George Kirby	26	Majors	SP		Low	5	163.8	72.7	91.1	72.9	91.1	109.3
Robert Perez	0	Minors	1B			0	0	0	1.3	1.1	1.3	1.6

Total Value:

118.70

Pirates

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Luke Raley	29	Majors	OF	1B	Medium	5	21.4	11.3	10.1	8	10.1	12.1
Luis Urias	27	Majors	3B	SS	Low	2	13.2	11.8	1.5	1.2	1.5	1.8
Jace Peterson	34	Majors	UTIL	3B	Medium	1	2.7	5	-2.3	-2.7	-2.3	-1.8
Michael Arroyo	0	Minors	SS			0	0	0	8	6.4	8	9.6
Cole Young	20	Minors	SS			0	0	0	24.3	19.4	24.3	29.2
Round A Comp Balance Pick	0	Minors			0	0	0	0	4	3.2	4	4.8

Total Value:

45.6

You found a premium feature!

Want an ad-free experience, with access to our premium features, like the Team Rankings, GM Override, Player Rankings, and Future Trade/Free Agent/Extension Values Graphs?

Comments

kurteger

March 17, 2024 at 3:34 PM

This would allow the Diamondbacks to solidify their rotation with George Kirby, while replacing most of Carroll's production in RF with an All-Star in Bryan Reynolds who is under contract at an affordable price. They save some of the money by dumping Jace Peterson and his $5M salary on the Pirates. Overall the Pirates send off a total of $8.5M (Carroll & Peterson) in salary, but take on $10.25M (Reynolds), plus they send $6M to Seattle. Haggerty becomes a younger, faster, cheaper, and more versatile utility infielder to replace Peterson. Robert Perez is a flyer who is blocked in the Seattle farm system, but could be groomed as an eventual replacement for the aging Christian Walker. Essentially the Diamondbacks are trade 4-5 fWAR in Carroll, a bench bat, and a comp pick for a horrible draft to get 6-7 fWAR in an All-Star ace (Kirby) with 5 years of control, an All-Star outfielder (Reynolds) with 7 years of cheap control, an upgrade for their bench (Haggerty), and a potential 1B prospect (Perez) that might help in the future. Overall, this trade makes the Diamondback a projected 2 fWAR better at the cost of about $8M while being cheaper in the long run than pursuing a free agent pitcher in the offseason, as well as Reynolds remains cheaper in the back half of the two deals, by about $10-12M/year in the final seasons of the two contracts.

kurteger

March 17, 2024 at 3:50 PM

This assumes the Mariners can sign Snell to a backdated contract, which would be worth around $10M in 2024, $15M in 2025, and $25M in 2026-2028. They could also add two options for $25M with $5M buyouts on each year that can be guaranteed based on innings, Cy Young awards, or some other metric related to performance and/or health. The total deal would be $110M/5 years, $130M/6 years, or $150M/7 years, depending on the options. With Garver, Haniger, and Polanco all due to reach free agency in two years and a ton of talented prospects ready to replace them from the minor leagues, the Mariners can turn those contracts into cheap internal replacements, just as Snell's contract goes up in value. The Mariners also improve the infield defense with the addition of Hayes' GG at 3B, Corbin solidifies LF, with Jonny Farmelo poised to replace Haniger in a couple years opposite Carroll. Dauri Moreta gets added to the 40-man roster and immediately transferred to the 60-day IL to make space for call-ups. Kirby, Raley, Urias, and Haggerty will leave 4 roster spots open, while Carroll and Hayes would fill two of them, that would then leave space to add two from the minors or NRI list to fill holes on the bench or in the bullpen. The Mariners take on $10.5M from Carroll ($3.5M) & Hayes ($7M), but they get $6M in cash from the Diamondbacks, while also saving $6M in salary from Urias ($5M) & Haggerty ($1M), the other two players are making league minimum, as will their roster replacements. The extra $2.5M should help a little with the Snell signing. Of course none of this deal happens without Blake Snell signing with the Mariners. Cole Young and Michael Arroyo are nice prospects, and Robert Perez is also not far removed from success, but the reality is that Tyler Locklear is already ahead of Perez on the MiLB depth charts and Lazaro Montes may end up there at 1B, since he's already 6'6 to 6'7 at only 19 years old. The Mariners have so many highly touted infield prospects that this really doesn't even register on the farm system. Guys like Felnin Celesten, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Dawel Joseph, and glove first guys like Axel Sanchez along with Ben Williamson. This doesn't even touch on what is added in the upcoming international signing perior or the amateur draft in 2024. While some will fear losing Kirby, but replacing him with a two-time Cy Young Award winner, doesn't feel like a downgrade and Snell's biggest knock is getting deep into games, which shouldn't be a problem for the best bullpen in baseball. This trade is about consolidating the talent on the Mariners roster, as they have too many MLB ready players and just not enough spots to put them.

kurteger

March 27, 2024 at 5:47 PM

People will ask what the Pirates are doing by making this trade and I would argue they are getting better. First, they are swapping out an two of their more expensive contracts for two guys who will reach free agency the next two offseason, creating a lot of financial room to do things when they are ready to compete in 2025-2026. The Cardinals still have a stranglehold on the NL Central along with the Brewers, while the Reds are charging fast, and the Cubs can never be ignored. The Pirates despite being in the weakest division in the majors are going to be lucky to win 80 games if everything breaks just right for them. Better they get a cheaper version of Reynolds with a cost controlled Luke Raley, while building a platoon of Peterson and Urias at 3B, while leaving room for prospects to push on to the roster and prove themselves over the upcoming season. Cole Young should not be slept on and in a year will probably be worth more than Reynolds an Hayes combined. The over-abundance of infield prospects in the Mariners system becomes a sneaky good trade for the Pirates. While Young looked destine to move to the keystone in Seattle, he could easily become the SS of the future in Pittsburgh with Arroyo becoming his double-play partner. Oneil Cruz should be moved to RF, sooner than later anyways. Add in a comp pick for the Pirates, while they end up saving around $7M in 2024. They could easily turn that savings into an offseason pickup late in Spring Training with so many notable players still on the board. If they added $3-8M, they could have an additional $10-15M to spend on players they could later flip at the deadline to add depth or help chase down a wildcard if they surprise everyone. Options include pitchers like Clevinger or Lorenzen, a designated hitter like J.D. Martinez, or cheaper options like Tommy Pham for the outfield or Donovan Solano for the infield. Whenever a team has the chancee to add minor league talent without taking much of a hit on the field, they should do it. The hardest part for Pirates fans is realizing that Paul Skenes isn't on the MLB roster yet, and when he gets there, do you want your two best players to be 30-year-old guys who would be role players on championship squads?! I'd rather see Skenes start his career in 2025 with Cole Young along side him in his prime for all 6-7 years and Michael Arroyo is probably a Top 150 prospect in baseball as well, so the Pirates would be getting the most overall talent in this trade, while the Mariners would get the most concentrated amount of talent, while the Diamondbacks would get the most talent in 2024, perfect for where each team is at in regards to their competitive windows.

Mariners & Diamondbacks & Pirates

Mariners

Diamondbacks

Pirates

You found a premium feature!

Comments

NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!