Cubs & Astros
Submitted by: Benjo
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 28 | Majors | SP | 6 | 24.3 | 15.8 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 10.3 |
Total Value:
8.5
Astros
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | 26 | Majors | LRP | SP | Medium | 5 | 18.5 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 7 | 8.7 | 10.5 |
Total Value:
8.7
Comments
8These two players have virtually the same BTV valuation. However, Assad has an ERA of 2.00 on the year, versus France who is sitting at 7.46. Assad has pitched a few more innings over his career and has a lifetime WHIP of 1.253, versus France at 1.697. He is also 3 years younger and entering the prime of his career. There is no way that these two are remotely close in trade value. If you vote this down for the Astros or up for the Cubs, please leave a comment and explain yourself. Cade Horton also has a lower BTV evaluation but rated higher by FanGraphs, which is the benchmark for BTV (or so I have been told) than Ricky Tiedemann and Kyle Harrison. Masataka Yoshida and Seiya Suzuki make virtually the same salary. Yoshida (DH) is half the ballplayer of Suzuki (great defensive OF hitting .300 since last year All-Star game) but rated higher by BTV. I want nothing but the best for BTV, but these low evaluations of Cubs players feels like a gross distortion of their true value. It is widespread and has been going on for years. I wish other Cubs fans would speak up.
I believe John stated that values would be updated in May. I would guess Assad’s value will jump with the next set of projections. Fangraphs projects him to be worth 3 WAR over the next three years. That alone is over $20m in surplus. My subjective estimate is that he’s worth 25-30 in trade value.
All values will be updated by early May, yes, and we expect Assad to go up.
Thanks, LC. I didn't hear a date, but it can't come a second too soon. Before you sell low on Assad, keep in mind he's the same age and has the same years of team control as George Kirby, who is a 91.1. Kirby is clearly the better talent, but Assad has out pitched him this year. And he seems to get better with each outing. He was dominant today!
Thanks, John! Just saw your posts.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/04/26/javier-assad-has-kinda-been-the-best-pitcher-in-baseball-since-june-of-last-year/
Thank you Lenin Lion! This is what I have been saying for quite awhile now. Same thing about Suzuki. I know he's out with an injury right now, but since the All-Star game last year, he has been one of the better hitters and OF defenders in baseball. Worth well and above his salary. It's galling that he is ranked below Yoshida. Hopefully, his numbers will be corrected as well. If Kirby is a 91.1, Assad s/b 60-75, imo. Maybe higher!
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Benjo, all values will be updated by May 1. We do this every year -- we wait a month for the sample sizes to be meaningful enough to matter, after which they will be updated more frequently. We expect Assad's value to go up. More broadly, the way the values are calculated is via an algorithm, into which multiple datapoints are fed, that have been shown, in aggregate, to correlate to the market. There is no bias against any particular team, because it's a model. The FG reference you're referring to from an earlier comment was simply me pointing out one data point (among many) that is significant, but by no means is it the only one. In short, there's nothing going on that is anti-Cubs; we expect Assad's value to rise next week in the update; and values will change more frequently thereafter.