Twins & Rays
Submitted by: Ms. Dajuba
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 30 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1.6 | 40.1 | 24.1 | 16 | 12.8 | 16 | 19.2 | |
| Cash | 2.75 |
Total Value:
18.75
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner | 26 | Majors | OF | DH | Medium | 5.6 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 7 | 8.7 | 10.5 |
| Louie Varland | 26 | Majors | SP | Medium | 5.6 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 8.3 | |
| Connor Prielipp | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
Total Value:
18.8
Comments
5
This seems like a forced trade. I see how Eflin makes the Twins better, but I struggle to see how the return helps the Rays. The Rays shouldn't be trading Eflin for a platoon outfielder, a reliever and a prospect with so many medical issues that no one knows if he will ever pitch again effectively (that's why I called him a lotto ticket in my trade). And the cash is a nonstarter. It ain't happening, so why include it??? Trades do not have to be exact to the penny and pitchers traded at the deadline often receive overpays anyway.
You’re obviously not a fan of Eflin. That’s fine. But you do understand that he would probably be paid over $20MM a year on the open market. That’s where his surplus value comes from.
That’s not true, I like him very much, as a #3 or #4, and I agree on your open market price.
There are very few teams where Eflin would be a 4. He's a 2-3 pitcher whose results are lagging his expected results this year based on his pitching. That happens and many teams will assume there should be some regression to the mean over the 2nd half of the season (ie: his topline stats improve to match his expected results). In any event, if you think his market value is around $20MM per year, why do you keep saying the Rays will need to pay down his salary, which is below $20MM this year and next?
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I think it’s going to be tough if the Rays are looking for an overpay along with the acquiring team taking on all his remaining salary. Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen yes, Zach Eflin, no. But hey, that’s me, time will tell. The $2.75m in cash is about half of what is still owed to Eflin as of today, at the deadline that cash would be about $2m.