Rays & Phillies

Submitted by: Abrown222213

Rays

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jean Cabrera22MinorsSP0002.31.82.32.7
Griffin Burkholder19MinorsCF0007.35.97.38.8

Total Value:

9.6

Phillies

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Pete Fairbanks31MajorsRPMedium1.716.69.675.678.4
Garrett Cleavinger31MajorsRPMedium2.78.85.73.22.53.23.8

Total Value:

10.2

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mp2891

I think Cleavinger is crazy undervalued on BTV and I wouldn’t trade him at this value.

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Abrown222213

2 relievers won’t yield 3 top 15 prospects in a system. Especially older guys

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mp2891

Wow! You’re quick. I changed my post to say I don’t want to trade Cleavinger. Didn’t think anyone would have read it yet. My original post said I wanted E.Castellano added to the return for the Rays. Anyway, I don’t follow ABrown’s response. Fairbanks is the Rays’ closer and Cleavinger is arguably the best reliever on the Rays’ team. They both come with multiple years of control and are cheap in salary cost. You can’t just say 2 relievers aren’t worth 3 top 15 prospects. I’ve seen top relievers get top 100 prospects. It’s all based on value, and if you don’t like Fairbanks and Cleavinger enough to throw in a prospect who was returned to Philly in the Rule 5 draft, then I’d say you don’t value the Rays’ relievers enough.

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Abrown222213

Without cleavinger burkholder is out of the deal and then maybe Cabrera and castellano for fairbanks

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mp2891

Cabrera and Castellano might work for Fairbanks. I like Cleavinger more than Fairbanks.

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johnbitzer

Cleavinger's value is hurt by the fact that he's out of options. For a 31-year-old who's bounced around a lot, that matters. His FIP is also significantly higher than his ERA.

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mp2891

I'm curious on your thoughts on xFIP and xERA then. My opinion, which admittedly isn't worth much, is that FIP overly punishes pitchers who give up HRs (and Cleaviinger's HR/9 is pretty high right now because he gave up 1 HR this week (3 HRs this year while facing 65 TBFs)). Anyway, Cleavinger's FIP (3.63) is the outlier stat among ERA (2.12), xERA (2.33) and xFIP (2.96). When I see that, i tend to discount FIP because I know it's caused by giving up HRs (and all of Cleavinger's HRs are single run scorers, which is why all his other stats are so much lower). EDIT: FYI: Cleavinger is going on his 3rd full year (and 4th partial year) with the Rays and he's pitched well enough that he graduated to full time status with the Rays last year and is not at risk of being sent down, with or without options. Anyway, I'm curious as to your views as the impartial trade value expert. I'm obviously biased.

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johnbitzer

Those are blended in, but it's really a matter of weighting. We find that most teams still use fWAR as a baseline, which of course is FIP-based, but increasingly blending in a cocktail of advanced metrics, which is what we do to follow them. However, we've observed a disparity between teams, especially with relievers. It seems like there's no consistency in the industry, although there's a trendline pointing to more stuff-based weightings. We're following the leaders, but it's never perfect.

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