Phillies & Orioles
Submitted by: philliescts
Phillies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | 30 | Majors | CF | Medium | 0.7 | 20.7 | 6 | 14.7 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 17.7 | |
| Felix Bautista | 30 | Majors | RP | Low | 2.7 | 20.5 | 4.7 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 15.9 | 19 |
Total Value:
30.6
Orioles
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marsh | 27 | Majors | OF | Low | 2.7 | 25.2 | 14.1 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 13.4 | |
| Mick Abel | 23 | Majors | SP | 0 | 10.2 | 0 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | ||
| Aroon Escobar | 19 | Minors | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 7 |
Total Value:
27.2
Comments
4Orioles arent interested in moving Bautista
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Don't understand why they wouldn't be. He's already 30 years old and lost a few MPH on his fastball. K rate is down, and BB rate is up. The likelihood of them competing this year is slim, and holding on to an RP tends to decrease their trade value over time. There is an increased risk of injury, in which case, there is no return, and a diminished value with the loss of team control. In Marsh, they would bring in a character player with knowledge and experience of what it takes to get to and through the postseason, plus he is a cost-controlled bat. In addition, the O's would get a pedigreed SP with a top-of-the-rotation arsenal.
All of his metrics are down since hes fresh from surgery. Why move your all star closer who has 2 years of cheap control?
Because as he piles up saves, the 'cheap control' is no longer cheap. He will be making more in arbitration, as they tend to compensate pitchers with high save numbers and Ks vs. holds. The thought may be that those dollars could be allocated elsewhere, which is why I think Marsh may be the odd man out of the Phillies OF. He is in a similar situation to Bautista in terms of service and they have a cheaper alternative in Crawford in their system. In terms of Bautista's metrics, they are down. There is the argument that he could be gearing back up, and his fastball may tick up some more, and he might get a bit of a better break on his slider, but there is also the distinct possibility that this is the new normal for him, as most pitchers tend to lose an MPH on the fastball when they get into the 30s. For the O's, they need to look and ask themselves. 1) Is Bautista going to be the pitcher he was in 2023 in 2026? That would require them to look at the medicals and the metrics and calculate how they think he WILL preform in the future. 2) What direction are the Os going in and can they compete in the AL East? That is prob the biggest question. They have a solid core, but have done little to help the SP. 3) Is he worth the increase in salary? The best comp is probably Ryan Helsley, who earned 3.8M and 8.2M. Now, he did not have the saves that Bautista has on his resume, so it is fair to say he should outperform those values. So, for argument's sake, let's say arb 2 is 4.5M and arb 3 is closer to 10 M. Are the O's willing to pay that to a 31 and 32 yr old Baustista after seeing the ROI for a 35 yr old Kittredge, 30 yr old Seranthony, and 30 yr old Soto? 4) Will I get a similar or better package down the line? I think the trade packages at the deadline tend to be higher for RP than in the offseason. If they hold on to Bautista and have another disappointing season, they could still move him next year, but there are a number of risks, and his value will most likely not increase. His price tag, as I mentioned, will only go up in arb, and naturally, the team's control goes down. If the answers are all positive across the board, then yes, the Os prob won't move him, but there are enough question marks about him and the direction of the team that they are going to at least consider some packages.