Rays & Rockies
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Doyle | 26 | Majors | OF | 4.6 | 22 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 12.3 | ||
| Seth Halvorsen | 24 | Majors | RP | 5.6 | 20.5 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 9.4 |
Total Value:
18.20
Rockies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 26 | Majors | UTIL | 3B | Medium | 3.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
| Ryan Spikes | 21 | Minors | 2B | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.4 | |
| Gary Gill Hill | 19 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.1 |
Total Value:
17.5
Comments
9
Misner has been a revelation defensively. I did not believe him to be this good. But he is an atrocious hitter. He is absolutely horrific at everything done with a bat in hand, and I do not believe him to be a quality MLB asset, and probably nothing more than a replacement player going forward. This trade nets them the best defensive CF in baseball, who is also a slightly below average hitter, rather than the abomination they currently have. Doyle is basically a RH version Kiermaier. It also gets them a solid reliever with triple digits gas.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Doyle is a "slightly below average hitter?" He's hitting 51 wRC+ this year and has a career average of 71 wRC+. That's more than slightly below average. Misner is hitting 91 wRC+ for the season, and while his May was atrocious, the bat has stabilized the past 2 weeks at around that level. Sorry, but I can't get behind a Doyle trade.
Doyle's rookie year was terrible. He K'd 35%. He's cut that by 10% and increased his walk rate. He had a .330 xwOBA last year and a .317 this year (average in 2024, slightly below average in 2025). As soon as his luck changes, he's slightly below league average with the bat. He's got a .250 BABIP even though he's top 5% in sprint speed and has an above average exit velo. He's got a roughly average infield fly ball rate of 8.8 %, so it's not even like he's hitting a ton of popups to suppress his BABIP. Dude's just gotten really unlucky. All his important measureables on statcast are basically average, in the 40-60% range. Get him off that shit team, and he's a 3-5 win CF in my opinion. KK Jr.
The problem though is that even if you look at his one “good” year at the plate, he still hit for shit away from Coors Field. In 2024 he had a 97 wRC+ overall, but only 76 wRC+ that year away from Coors Field. This year he is hitting 17 wRC+ away from Coors Field. At the end of the day, I tend to ignore underlying stats and “luck” when they diverge from the overall story. I just don’t see an overall better player to the Rays’ internal options.
Doyle got off to a great start in 2025, posting essentially the same numbers he put up in 2024. Then he and his wife lost their unborn child. I don't expect anyone to have a great month after that, so May never happened in my book. I have never given home and away stats credence. Wily Adames claimed it, but his MIL numbers were the the same as his TB numbers. I guess it's about time for him to claim he can't see the ball in San Francisco either. Nelson Cruz followed Adames' lead and claimed he couldn't hit in the Trop either, but he never hit anywhere ever again because his career was over when we acquired him. It was speculated the Trop was screwing with Morel's eyes, and we see now that that was a bullshit excuse too. I'm not aware of any player who thrives in CO and can't thrive anywhere else. Junior Caminero has a 166 wRC+ at home, and a 72 wRC+ on the road. How many more PA would it take for you to be convinced Caminero is only a product of Steinbrenner Field? 100? 400? There isn't a number that would convince me, because Junior Caminero is an incredible baseball player with a weird home road split. Likewise, Brenton Doyle is an excellent player, already an elite defender (90th percentile) with elite speed and above average power. He's 6'4", 220 pounds of raw steal and sex appeal, and the day he gets a .320 BABIP instead of a .245 BABIP is the day he becomes a 3 win OF. If it gets to .350, he might be a 5 win OF.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-homeroad-splits/ Here's RJ Anderson, who wrote for DRaysbay back when I spent more time there, providing a better thought about home/Rd splits than I just did. The Article is about Matt Holiday leaving Coors. As we now know, Matt Holiday could hit in Busch Stadium just fine too. Projections will account for all park factors, cumulative of the entire season, so that's a better indicator of future success than to look at a sample of 300 PA at one park and 300 PA at multiple parks, and determine a player can only play at one particular park. Doyle is projected as an 80-100 wRC+ bat for the remainder of the year., or as I put it, a slightly below average bat. I would argue that it's low, as it heavily weights his past month, in which he was dealing with immeasurable pain that I've never felt.
Fine. Then I go back to his overall results which suck. He’s not better than Misner/Mangum. I am sorry to hear about his personal tragedy though. That’s tough.
Misner is the worst hitter on the Rays. Worse than Walls. Just a complete waste of a roster spot. I think you are nuts if you would rather have Misner than Doyle. You better never quote wOBA, xwOBA, or any statcast measurable again if you would rather have Misner than Doyle. I think Misner should be DFA tomorrow. He is completely hopeless with the bat. And if you don't think we have a long term problem in CF, you are nuts. Homer Bush is the only player in the org capable of being a quality player who plays CF in the MLB.
I'm not going to delete this in case you've already seen it, but I'm sorry for how I spoke to you MP. Frustrating loss had me spewing fire. I do not think you are nuts, and quote whatever stat you want. I certainly am no gatekeeper, and did not devise any of the stats I quote. I browse someone else's work every time I quote a stat, and am in no postition to credit or discredit anyone's opinion.