Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 28 | Majors | RP | Low | 2.6 | 9.7 | 28.2 | -18.5 | -22.2 | -18.5 | -14.8 | |
| Kyle Harrison | 22 | Majors | LRP | SP | 4.6 | 19 | 8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 13.1 | |
| James Tibbs | 21 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 10.9 | ||
| Jose Bello | 19 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Total Value:
1.9
Giants
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 28 | Majors | DH | 3B | Medium | 8.6 | 195.1 | 235.4 | -40.3 | -48.4 | -40.3 | -32.2 |
| Cash | 40 |
Total Value:
-0.30
What a bizarre trade
But isn't the contract underwater because of the post-2030 years? Maybe Posey doesn't expect those years to be his problem.
For sure. Either way, in totality it's underwater.
I’ve got a feeling the Red Sox front office might just have “Baby come back” by Player on repeat. A bat like Devers is SO very hard to acquire/replace/develop…
Why is Ohtani's AFV ($621.4MM) so much greater than that of Devers ($195.1)? I understand that there is a belief that Ohtani will pitch again someday and at a high level, but shouldn't he have to actually do that for several months before he is valued that way? I could understand Ohtani's on field value being 50% greater than that of Devers, but 300%???!!! I don't think so. Alcantara has pitched terribly for the first three months of the season. Stanton has not played at all, yet Alcantara's on field value is 13 times greater than that of Stanton. Stanton could come back this week, and as long as he stays healthy, could be very productive. I don't foresee Alcantara suddenly pitching well except against the likes of the Pirates and Rockies. Their respective costs are approximately the same. I think that their respective values should be much closer.
Track records matter. Ohtani is back to pitching, starting tonight. Stanton's injury history is the most significant data point, and as he ages it gets worse. He's 35, and barely able to play at all. Alcantara is younger, and fits the pattern of post-TJS pitchers, who usually need time to find their rhythm again. That's already started to happen, so his projections are anticipating that improvement.