Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 28 | Majors | RP | Low | 2.6 | 9.7 | 28.2 | -18.5 | -22.2 | -18.5 | -14.8 | |
| Kyle Harrison | 22 | Majors | LRP | SP | 4.6 | 19 | 8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 13.1 | |
| James Tibbs | 21 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 10.9 | ||
| Jose Bello | 19 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Total Value:
1.9
Giants
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 28 | Majors | DH | 3B | Medium | 8.6 | 195.1 | 235.4 | -40.3 | -48.4 | -40.3 | -32.2 |
| Cash | 40 |
Total Value:
-0.30
Comments
10
Lots to unpack here... Assuming the reports are correct that no cash is involved, this is a major overpay by the Giants. Devers' value took a hit when he was moved to DH, and the refusal to play 1B didn't help. The contract is huge for a DH, and my take is that Boston wanted to get out of it, and found a taker. On the other side, Buster Posey has shown that he cares less about models and analytics, and just wants to win. On paper, this is a win for Boston. Their fans won't see it that way, because they lost their star. But they'll be better off for it in the long run.
If I'm SF, I'd probably be targeting college pitching in the draft next month. Whisenhunt is OK and also a lefty, but he's not going to be better than Harrison. If there's a shot at floating Kyson Witherspoon down the board to you at 13, you take it.
Trade value aside, I’m shocked the Red Sox are punting on their season in mid-June, especially being in the WC race. Things must have been really bad behind the scene.
I don’t disagree with the argument that the rookies can help bridge the gap. It’s unlikely that Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell will match the same home run production collectively; but can they have more hits, more RBI's, and make a greater impact on offense and defense, probably. What I do wonder is whether things had deteriorated so badly in the clubhouse that this trade became necessary. It's a very small sample size, but Devers is just 10-for-51 during this recent stretch of success for the Sox. Regardless of Devers’ performance, the bottom line is that if the Sox don’t pitch well, they won’t win. The common thread during this recent brief turnaround has been strong starting pitching and improved defense.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
What a bizarre trade
But isn't the contract underwater because of the post-2030 years? Maybe Posey doesn't expect those years to be his problem.
For sure. Either way, in totality it's underwater.
Why is Ohtani's AFV ($621.4MM) so much greater than that of Devers ($195.1)? I understand that there is a belief that Ohtani will pitch again someday and at a high level, but shouldn't he have to actually do that for several months before he is valued that way? I could understand Ohtani's on field value being 50% greater than that of Devers, but 300%???!!! I don't think so. Alcantara has pitched terribly for the first three months of the season. Stanton has not played at all, yet Alcantara's on field value is 13 times greater than that of Stanton. Stanton could come back this week, and as long as he stays healthy, could be very productive. I don't foresee Alcantara suddenly pitching well except against the likes of the Pirates and Rockies. Their respective costs are approximately the same. I think that their respective values should be much closer.