Rays & Reds
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain | 24 | Majors | SS | 2B | 4.5 | 24.2 | 13.1 | 11 | 8.8 | 11 | 13.2 | |
| Carlos Sanchez | 19 | Minors | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 |
Total Value:
13.5
Reds
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe | 27 | Majors | OF | Low | 3.5 | 51.2 | 30.5 | 20.7 | 16.6 | 20.7 | 24.8 |
Total Value:
20.7
Comments
10
Hard pass
I think these values are severely overvalueing Lowe and undervaluing McLain. The Rays would jump for joy if they traded 3.5 years of a platoon OF about to get a big pay bump for 4.5 years of McLain. Lowe's BABIP will rebound, but he should be showing a lot more power in this minor league field than he has. The Rays can part with Lowe because they have a ton of LH OF. My ideal lineup in this scenario would be Simpson in left, McLain in CF, Mangum/Morel platoon in RF. The Reds need outfielders. Lowe fills a big hole.
As a Reds fan, I doubt McLain gets traded anytime soon. He's playing outstanding defense, and his June batting numbers show him coming around. I do like the idea of the Reds getting Lowe, however. Maybe there's another deal to be had there.
Dammit, I'm with you. I would pay 3 times this valuation for McLain. I haven't heard anything about McLain being available, other than he's playing out of position at 2nd base. He's got amazing hands in the field, instincts that get him to balls he shouldn't get to. Best fielder not named Taylor Walls. Hits a lot better than Walls though.
Simpson coming back so early has me wondering (again) if he’s ready. They rushed him earlier this year out of necessity. He had some flash but overall he wasn’t ready. I hope he’s ready now. LF is his for the next few years I expect, unless he makes a big jump defensively and can move to CF. I would prefer a Morel/Cabby pairing personally for the rest of this year (Morel has reverse splits and should be batting against RHP). Mangum in CF is the way to go. He’s hitting 119 wRC+ this year while providing good defense. Love his attitude. In RF I want to see more of Josh before we cut ties. He suffered a bad oblique injury in the Spring and I’ve started wondering if he’s still feeling some after effects. Like you, I expect more from him, but I’m not ready to cut ties yet. McLain does very little for me as an outfielder. His bat is still struggling, only hitting 79 wRC+ on the year and he has never played CF in the Show. If the Rays want him, I suspect they try to get him in the offseason. He’s a step down this year.
You think Simpson was rushed? Man, I don't. His negatives won't be fixed by another month in the minors, and his positives will start to decrease any day now. 2 years ago, I thought his defense would get better. That's when I ranked him so highly in the Rays system. I was worng, but thankfully he's basically a young Tony Gwynn with much worse defense (although Gwynn was a poor defender for a few years too). His arm is what it is. I really, really thought as the years went by, he would get better reads on balls. He didn't. Another week/month/year in AAA wouldn't matter. He is what he is. I thought Misner was the worst batter in baseball 2 months ago, so I wanted Simpson to be a Ray and Misner sent down. Power potential will buy you a lot of chances (as we're seeing with Josh Lowe...) Honestly, at this point, I think Simpson will bat .300 and carry a 5% BB rate, be a terrible LF, and I think both of those are doable/probable. That would make him an amazing leadoff hitter, with game changing base-advancement off the bench, but might be the most unusual DH ever every once in a while.
I don't think I could explain my hopes and concerns about Simpson better than you just did.
I really admire your passion, but I don't want you to be swayed by small samples. The worse a good player does, the more I want him. McLain, Doyle are my major overpay targets right now. I wanted to overpay for Lodolo. But I also wanted to overpay for Seth Brown, so I miss too. I majorly overpaid for Morel. Now you're doing your best to be team Morel? My name is Andy. I don't know your name. I like to think it's MotherPhucker. So MotherPhucker, you can stop giving Morel the benefit of the doubt. He is absolutely horrific. He starts against LHP. He continues against someone's 8th best relievers. He gets pinch hit for when a tough RHP isto be seen. Don't mistake doing good against worse pitchers than Uceta as doing good against RHP and should be starting against them.
I'm a bit of an oddball, what can I say... If you told me you wanted McLain and his 80ish wRC+ bat for SS, I'd be all for it. He's proved he can play the position at a high level and then we just sit back and hope the bat comes along. Plus, his competition would be Walls and Cabby, so an 80ish wRC+ bat is fine. The Rays opted for HSK instead of pursuing someone like McLain. Swapping Mangum for McLain just doesn't work. I'm not convinced there will be better defense and I'm 100% convinced the bat will be worse. With Doyle, I have no expectations he is going to hit above 100 wRC+ and I hate paying up for defense. His valuation works at this point but it didn't work earlier in the season; however, with the Rays needing to move some outfielders already, I just don't see any room at the inn for the guy. With Morel, you may recall my biggest complaint about him was him being valued as if the elusive breakout so many saw coming because of his hard hit rates and other underlying stats had already arrived. I saw a 1-2 fWAR player capable of putting up around 110-120 wRC+ each year. The Rays paid for a 1-2 WAR player they thought they could turn into a 2-4 WAR player, and their efforts ruined him to the point I seriously wondered if he would still be playing baseball in 2026. For some reason, the Rays are choosing to ignore the fact that he has had reverse splits in 3 of his 4 seasons and they mostly play him against LHP because he's a RHB. If they used him properly, his results would probably be what I generally expect for the guy. However, if they continue to misuse him, then yeah, trade him from the team because he's not a good player with how he's being used. Interestingly, you're the second person to tell me this week that Morel is being used against bad RHP and that's why his numbers are rebounding. I don't know how to verify that generally, but I can tell you that Fangraphs tells me he is batting .280/.333/.360 (102 wRC+) against RHP in the first 3 innings this year, he's batting .226/.294/.452 (112 wRC+) against RHP in the 4th - 6th innings, and is batting a remarkable .265/.359/.529 (154 wRC+) against RHP after the 6th inning. So maybe there's something to that point. Or maybe he just takes an AB to warm up (as most SP tend to do best the 1st TTO). It's hard to chalk his performance after the 6th inning up to randomness though. He's clearly feasting on bad relievers, but then again, if I had the time to look at a bunch of other players, would I see the same thing??? Lord knows the Rays' Pen this year has helped the stats of many opposing hitters.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Replied below. Didn't have time to type up my thoughts right away.