Cubs & Rays
Submitted by: Frank89
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | 22 | Majors | 3B | 5 | 154.1 | 63.7 | 90.4 | 72.3 | 90.4 | 108.4 |
Total Value:
90.4
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 29 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2 | 49.7 | 24.6 | 25.2 | 20.1 | 25.2 | 30.2 | |
| Owen Caissie | 23 | Majors | OF | 6 | 16.8 | 0.3 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 16.5 | 19.8 | ||
| Jefferson Rojas | 20 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 16.4 | 20.5 | 24.6 | ||
| Matt Shaw | 23 | Majors | 3B | SS | 5 | 57.6 | 23 | 34.6 | 27.7 | 34.6 | 41.5 |
Total Value:
96.8
Comments
5
There is a non zero chance the Rays trade JC, but there is zero chance it’s for a return like this. A quarter of the trade value is in a pitcher coming back from TJS and who only has 2 years of control. Rays will have no interest in Steele. The headliner is a defense first, below average bat. Rays love those types and they have a bunch in-house already. They aren’t going to pay $35 MM in trade value to add Shaw and his 1-2 fWAR. Caissie has a K problem that gives him a low ceiling and Rojas is fine I guess but I think he’s overrated offensively. JC might put up 6+ fWAR next year. Is there any chance the 4 Cubs players do that in the aggregate (in any year)? I’d bet on JC every year. Rays say no to this trade and it’s not particularly close.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I'm a big Shaw fan but I don't understand how his value is still so high, I think he could still turn out to be a very good regular but I wouldn't want to trade for him at that value
5 years of cheap control for a player who probably has more upside than he's shown, as development is non-linear and players tend to peak in their mid-to-late '20s.
I just looked it up I could have sworn Shaw came up in 2024 and didn't do very well and went back to AAA but I guess that was all this year, i was thinking he'd had back to back not so good mlb seasons so he still has pretty good value but 35 still a pretty steep price, that means he's equivalent to 3,500 Brandon Lowes for him lol
I was probably too hard on Shaw in my initial write up. His bat is probably better than he showed this year, which was hurt by a below league average BABIP and (I suspect) a more tentative rookie swing that affected his ISO. On the other hand, his defense is probably below what I thought it was. I hate seeing defensive stats wildly disagree on players defensive value, which they did in Shaw’s case, telling me his defense may not be as good as I originally thought. Add it all up and I still don’t like him as a headliner for JC but he’s probably better than a 1-2 fWAR player.