Padres & Rays
Submitted by: cruisinSD
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | 34 | Majors | 1B | Medium | 2 | 37.4 | 26 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 | |
| Josh Lowe | 28 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 21.6 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.5 | |
| Steven Wilson | 31 | Majors | RP | Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Value:
18.5
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | 27 | Majors | RP | 4 | 39.4 | 22.1 | 17.3 | 13.9 | 17.3 | 20.8 | ||
| Tirso Ornelas | 26 | Majors | OF | 5 | 1.8 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Total Value:
19.1
Comments
3
I don’t understand how Wilson has no value unless BTV has simply chosen not to value him for some reason. The guy is a decent pitcher, pitching to a 3.73 xERA last year and 0.4 fWAR. He still has 3 years of control and is only projected to make $1.5MM next year, so he should have surplus trade value. In any event, this trade would look a lot better for the Rays with Wilson and Ornelas taken out. Rays have no need of another lefty outfielder (that’s why they might trade Lowe). Make that change and this trade might work for the Rays.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Wilson just has no surplus value. He's in his arb years, and his projections are sub-replacement level (check out his Fangraphs page).
Projections…. LOL. Wilson has had positive fWAR in 3 of the 4 years he has played in the Majors and is coming off arguably his best year in the Majors. The various projections expect him to turn in a negative fWAR season in 2026 for some reason, even while pitching half his games in the pitcher friendly Trop for the pitcher friendly Rays, who often get relievers to vastly outperform projections and personal history. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t have a good season next year. Frankly, I’m expecting him to replace Kevin Kelly on the roster and turn in a career year. And again, he is projected to earn only $1.5MM. So while I agree he doesn’t have much trade value based on past performance, I’ll take the over on his projections. He will be a good pick up for the Rays.